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Nigeria vs Japan: population pyramids compared

Nigeria is about 2.0 times as large as Japan, but size is only part of the story. Compare the two age structures on one percentage scale for 2026 and 2050, with every indicator side by side.

Estimate or projection?

UN estimates run through 2023; figures from 2024 onward are medium-scenario projections.

Nigeria and Japan in 2026

Nigeria population pyramid

2026 · Share of total by five-year age group and sex

Medium projection
Nigeria population pyramid for 2026: males on the left and females on the right Male share Female share 100+ males: 56 (0.0%) 100+ females: 152 (0.0%) 100+ 95–99 males: 1,348 (0.0%) 95–99 females: 2,550 (0.0%) 95–99 90–94 males: 15,790 (0.0%) 90–94 females: 22,368 (0.0%) 90–94 85–89 males: 88,751 (0.0%) 85–89 females: 107,174 (0.0%) 85–89 80–84 males: 282,999 (0.1%) 80–84 females: 317,894 (0.1%) 80–84 75–79 males: 582,732 (0.2%) 75–79 females: 658,470 (0.3%) 75–79 70–74 males: 1,027,422 (0.4%) 70–74 females: 1,136,195 (0.5%) 70–74 65–69 males: 1,566,469 (0.6%) 65–69 females: 1,685,515 (0.7%) 65–69 60–64 males: 2,174,684 (0.9%) 60–64 females: 2,267,628 (0.9%) 60–64 55–59 males: 2,890,564 (1.2%) 55–59 females: 2,921,213 (1.2%) 55–59 50–54 males: 3,829,249 (1.6%) 50–54 females: 3,808,244 (1.6%) 50–54 45–49 males: 4,920,225 (2.0%) 45–49 females: 4,820,730 (2.0%) 45–49 40–44 males: 5,799,180 (2.4%) 40–44 females: 5,651,194 (2.3%) 40–44 35–39 males: 6,653,154 (2.7%) 35–39 females: 6,459,820 (2.7%) 35–39 30–34 males: 7,896,466 (3.3%) 30–34 females: 7,616,939 (3.1%) 30–34 25–29 males: 9,611,409 (4.0%) 25–29 females: 9,271,556 (3.8%) 25–29 20–24 males: 12,090,766 (5.0%) 20–24 females: 11,643,962 (4.8%) 20–24 15–19 males: 14,062,075 (5.8%) 15–19 females: 13,536,584 (5.6%) 15–19 10–14 males: 15,573,018 (6.4%) 10–14 females: 15,054,509 (6.2%) 10–14 5–9 males: 16,101,674 (6.6%) 5–9 females: 15,639,238 (6.5%) 5–9 0–4 males: 17,540,276 (7.2%) 0–4 females: 17,101,591 (7.1%) 0–4 10%5% Age 5%10%

Japan population pyramid

2026 · Share of total by five-year age group and sex

Medium projection
Japan population pyramid for 2026: males on the left and females on the right Male share Female share 100+ males: 18,413 (0.0%) 100+ females: 107,594 (0.1%) 100+ 95–99 males: 153,296 (0.1%) 95–99 females: 550,745 (0.4%) 95–99 90–94 males: 682,809 (0.6%) 90–94 females: 1,585,819 (1.3%) 90–94 85–89 males: 1,627,377 (1.3%) 85–89 females: 2,678,119 (2.2%) 85–89 80–84 males: 2,574,414 (2.1%) 80–84 females: 3,459,285 (2.8%) 80–84 75–79 males: 4,024,903 (3.3%) 75–79 females: 4,785,560 (3.9%) 75–79 70–74 males: 3,605,001 (2.9%) 70–74 females: 3,892,897 (3.2%) 70–74 65–69 males: 3,575,323 (2.9%) 65–69 females: 3,647,469 (3.0%) 65–69 60–64 males: 3,877,719 (3.2%) 60–64 females: 3,828,838 (3.1%) 60–64 55–59 males: 4,495,243 (3.7%) 55–59 females: 4,412,053 (3.6%) 55–59 50–54 males: 4,934,051 (4.0%) 50–54 females: 4,866,305 (4.0%) 50–54 45–49 males: 4,098,257 (3.3%) 45–49 females: 4,031,182 (3.3%) 45–49 40–44 males: 3,604,791 (2.9%) 40–44 females: 3,523,816 (2.9%) 40–44 35–39 males: 3,217,041 (2.6%) 35–39 females: 3,100,776 (2.5%) 35–39 30–34 males: 3,062,044 (2.5%) 30–34 females: 2,942,385 (2.4%) 30–34 25–29 males: 3,133,635 (2.6%) 25–29 females: 3,011,361 (2.5%) 25–29 20–24 males: 3,147,954 (2.6%) 20–24 females: 3,003,501 (2.5%) 20–24 15–19 males: 2,897,193 (2.4%) 15–19 females: 2,745,887 (2.2%) 15–19 10–14 males: 2,662,610 (2.2%) 10–14 females: 2,521,039 (2.1%) 10–14 5–9 males: 2,301,492 (1.9%) 5–9 females: 2,191,856 (1.8%) 5–9 0–4 males: 1,968,258 (1.6%) 0–4 females: 1,879,422 (1.5%) 0–4 10%5% Age 5%10%

Key differences between Nigeria and Japan

Age. Japan is the older population, with a median age of 50.2 years against 18.3 in Nigeria — a gap of 31.9 years. Nigeria has the larger share of children (40.0% under 15 versus 11.0%), while Japan has the larger share aged 65 and over (30.2% versus 3.1%).

Births and survival. Nigeria’s fertility rate of 4.20 is above the replacement level, and Japan’s 1.23 is below it. Life expectancy at birth is 85.1 years in Japan and 55.0 in Nigeria.

Dependency. The total age dependency ratio is 75.8 in Nigeria (70.3 children and 5.4 older people per 100 aged 15–64) and 70.2 in Japan (18.8 and 51.4). Similar totals can hide very different mixes of young and old.

Outlook. Between 2026 and 2050, the UN medium scenario has Nigeria’s population grows by 48% and Japan’s declines by 14%. These are scenario results, not forecasts; how projections work explains the assumptions.

Nigeria vs Japan: indicators side by side

IndicatorNigeriaJapan
Population, 2026242,431,832122,427,731
Median age18.3 years50.2 years
Under age 1540.0%11.0%
Aged 15–6456.9%58.8%
Aged 65+3.1%30.2%
Age dependency ratio75.870.2
Fertility rate4.201.23
Life expectancy at birth55.0 years85.1 years
Annual growth+2.0%-0.6%
Males per 100 females102.595.1
Population, 2050359,185,556105,123,167
Change, 2026–2050+48.2%-14.1%
Population, 2100476,747,78176,845,989
Peak yearStill rising in 21002009
Global population rank#6#12

2026, 2050, and 2100 values are UN World Population Prospects 2024 medium-scenario projections.

How the two pyramids could look in 2050

The same scale is kept for the projected charts, so a narrowing base or widening top can be compared directly with the 2026 shapes above.

Nigeria population pyramid

2050 · Share of total by five-year age group and sex

Medium projection
Nigeria population pyramid for 2050: males on the left and females on the right Male share Female share 100+ males: 162 (0.0%) 100+ females: 406 (0.0%) 100+ 95–99 males: 3,417 (0.0%) 95–99 females: 6,234 (0.0%) 95–99 90–94 males: 35,733 (0.0%) 90–94 females: 49,998 (0.0%) 90–94 85–89 males: 186,374 (0.1%) 85–89 females: 222,221 (0.1%) 85–89 80–84 males: 581,407 (0.2%) 80–84 females: 638,230 (0.2%) 80–84 75–79 males: 1,316,618 (0.4%) 75–79 females: 1,395,549 (0.4%) 75–79 70–74 males: 2,389,287 (0.7%) 70–74 females: 2,466,359 (0.7%) 70–74 65–69 males: 3,479,427 (1.0%) 65–69 females: 3,534,052 (1.0%) 65–69 60–64 males: 4,460,601 (1.2%) 60–64 females: 4,446,426 (1.2%) 60–64 55–59 males: 5,595,456 (1.6%) 55–59 females: 5,448,124 (1.5%) 55–59 50–54 males: 6,968,487 (1.9%) 50–54 females: 6,685,489 (1.9%) 50–54 45–49 males: 9,212,092 (2.6%) 45–49 females: 8,778,829 (2.4%) 45–49 40–44 males: 11,720,347 (3.3%) 40–44 females: 11,162,888 (3.1%) 40–44 35–39 males: 13,769,085 (3.8%) 35–39 females: 13,183,323 (3.7%) 35–39 30–34 males: 14,902,030 (4.1%) 30–34 females: 14,293,126 (4.0%) 30–34 25–29 males: 16,249,738 (4.5%) 25–29 females: 15,637,116 (4.4%) 25–29 20–24 males: 17,495,581 (4.9%) 20–24 females: 16,867,812 (4.7%) 20–24 15–19 males: 17,828,255 (5.0%) 15–19 females: 17,214,826 (4.8%) 15–19 10–14 males: 18,353,554 (5.1%) 10–14 females: 17,773,519 (4.9%) 10–14 5–9 males: 18,701,976 (5.2%) 5–9 females: 18,196,795 (5.1%) 5–9 0–4 males: 19,207,055 (5.3%) 0–4 females: 18,727,552 (5.2%) 0–4 10%5% Age 5%10%

Japan population pyramid

2050 · Share of total by five-year age group and sex

Medium projection
Japan population pyramid for 2050: males on the left and females on the right Male share Female share 100+ males: 79,858 (0.1%) 100+ females: 342,129 (0.3%) 100+ 95–99 males: 383,414 (0.4%) 95–99 females: 1,043,047 (1.0%) 95–99 90–94 males: 1,055,492 (1.0%) 90–94 females: 1,963,489 (1.9%) 90–94 85–89 males: 2,020,391 (1.9%) 85–89 females: 2,868,114 (2.7%) 85–89 80–84 males: 3,005,939 (2.9%) 80–84 females: 3,643,200 (3.5%) 80–84 75–79 males: 4,011,797 (3.8%) 75–79 females: 4,519,449 (4.3%) 75–79 70–74 males: 3,701,172 (3.5%) 70–74 females: 3,965,595 (3.8%) 70–74 65–69 males: 3,348,020 (3.2%) 65–69 females: 3,450,423 (3.3%) 65–69 60–64 males: 3,064,753 (2.9%) 60–64 females: 3,048,097 (2.9%) 60–64 55–59 males: 2,857,753 (2.7%) 55–59 females: 2,798,814 (2.7%) 55–59 50–54 males: 2,856,128 (2.7%) 50–54 females: 2,782,633 (2.6%) 50–54 45–49 males: 2,996,718 (2.9%) 45–49 females: 2,905,363 (2.8%) 45–49 40–44 males: 3,064,838 (2.9%) 40–44 females: 2,994,515 (2.8%) 40–44 35–39 males: 2,956,861 (2.8%) 35–39 females: 2,893,658 (2.8%) 35–39 30–34 males: 2,708,505 (2.6%) 30–34 females: 2,669,806 (2.5%) 30–34 25–29 males: 2,409,483 (2.3%) 25–29 females: 2,393,620 (2.3%) 25–29 20–24 males: 2,248,930 (2.1%) 20–24 females: 2,217,760 (2.1%) 20–24 15–19 males: 2,046,842 (1.9%) 15–19 females: 1,983,560 (1.9%) 15–19 10–14 males: 2,051,023 (2.0%) 10–14 females: 1,976,018 (1.9%) 10–14 5–9 males: 2,038,550 (1.9%) 5–9 females: 1,957,742 (1.9%) 5–9 0–4 males: 1,942,271 (1.8%) 0–4 females: 1,857,395 (1.8%) 0–4 10%5% Age 5%10%

What shapes Nigeria’s pyramid

Nigeria has a textbook expansive pyramid: about 40% of people are under 15, and each age band is narrower than the one below it all the way up. Read the full Nigeria analysis.

What shapes Japan’s pyramid

Japan’s pyramid shows two baby booms, at ages 75–79 and 50–54, but no third: the expected echo never arrived, leaving one of the world’s narrowest bases. Read the full Japan analysis.

Explore each country in depth

Questions about Nigeria and Japan

Which population is older, Nigeria or Japan?

Japan is older: its projected 2026 median age is 50.2 years, compared with 18.3 in Nigeria.

Which has a higher fertility rate, Nigeria or Japan?

Nigeria has the higher total fertility rate in 2026: 4.20 births per woman, against 1.23 in Japan.

Will Nigeria or Japan have more people in 2050?

Under the UN medium scenario, Nigeria is projected to be larger in 2050, with 359.2M people against 105.1M.