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Japan vs China: population pyramids compared

China is about 12 times as large as Japan, but size is only part of the story. Compare the two age structures on one percentage scale for 2026 and 2050, with every indicator side by side.

Estimate or projection?

UN estimates run through 2023; figures from 2024 onward are medium-scenario projections.

Japan and China in 2026

Japan population pyramid

2026 · Share of total by five-year age group and sex

Medium projection
Japan population pyramid for 2026: males on the left and females on the right Male share Female share 100+ males: 18,413 (0.0%) 100+ females: 107,594 (0.1%) 100+ 95–99 males: 153,296 (0.1%) 95–99 females: 550,745 (0.4%) 95–99 90–94 males: 682,809 (0.6%) 90–94 females: 1,585,819 (1.3%) 90–94 85–89 males: 1,627,377 (1.3%) 85–89 females: 2,678,119 (2.2%) 85–89 80–84 males: 2,574,414 (2.1%) 80–84 females: 3,459,285 (2.8%) 80–84 75–79 males: 4,024,903 (3.3%) 75–79 females: 4,785,560 (3.9%) 75–79 70–74 males: 3,605,001 (2.9%) 70–74 females: 3,892,897 (3.2%) 70–74 65–69 males: 3,575,323 (2.9%) 65–69 females: 3,647,469 (3.0%) 65–69 60–64 males: 3,877,719 (3.2%) 60–64 females: 3,828,838 (3.1%) 60–64 55–59 males: 4,495,243 (3.7%) 55–59 females: 4,412,053 (3.6%) 55–59 50–54 males: 4,934,051 (4.0%) 50–54 females: 4,866,305 (4.0%) 50–54 45–49 males: 4,098,257 (3.3%) 45–49 females: 4,031,182 (3.3%) 45–49 40–44 males: 3,604,791 (2.9%) 40–44 females: 3,523,816 (2.9%) 40–44 35–39 males: 3,217,041 (2.6%) 35–39 females: 3,100,776 (2.5%) 35–39 30–34 males: 3,062,044 (2.5%) 30–34 females: 2,942,385 (2.4%) 30–34 25–29 males: 3,133,635 (2.6%) 25–29 females: 3,011,361 (2.5%) 25–29 20–24 males: 3,147,954 (2.6%) 20–24 females: 3,003,501 (2.5%) 20–24 15–19 males: 2,897,193 (2.4%) 15–19 females: 2,745,887 (2.2%) 15–19 10–14 males: 2,662,610 (2.2%) 10–14 females: 2,521,039 (2.1%) 10–14 5–9 males: 2,301,492 (1.9%) 5–9 females: 2,191,856 (1.8%) 5–9 0–4 males: 1,968,258 (1.6%) 0–4 females: 1,879,422 (1.5%) 0–4 10%5% Age 5%10%

China population pyramid

2026 · Share of total by five-year age group and sex

Medium projection
China population pyramid for 2026: males on the left and females on the right Male share Female share 100+ males: 4,341 (0.0%) 100+ females: 48,372 (0.0%) 100+ 95–99 males: 138,219 (0.0%) 95–99 females: 546,329 (0.0%) 95–99 90–94 males: 1,220,953 (0.1%) 90–94 females: 2,877,048 (0.2%) 90–94 85–89 males: 4,219,703 (0.3%) 85–89 females: 7,091,868 (0.5%) 85–89 80–84 males: 9,334,663 (0.7%) 80–84 females: 13,003,786 (0.9%) 80–84 75–79 males: 18,687,832 (1.3%) 75–79 females: 23,697,183 (1.7%) 75–79 70–74 males: 30,704,345 (2.2%) 70–74 females: 36,374,753 (2.6%) 70–74 65–69 males: 31,394,266 (2.2%) 65–69 females: 34,433,815 (2.4%) 65–69 60–64 males: 50,867,520 (3.6%) 60–64 females: 52,813,111 (3.7%) 60–64 55–59 males: 59,033,504 (4.2%) 55–59 females: 59,415,075 (4.2%) 55–59 50–54 males: 55,143,349 (3.9%) 50–54 females: 54,078,416 (3.8%) 50–54 45–49 males: 47,164,339 (3.3%) 45–49 females: 45,300,863 (3.2%) 45–49 40–44 males: 54,302,383 (3.8%) 40–44 females: 51,170,709 (3.6%) 40–44 35–39 males: 63,689,179 (4.5%) 35–39 females: 58,292,077 (4.1%) 35–39 30–34 males: 49,167,853 (3.5%) 30–34 females: 43,509,173 (3.1%) 30–34 25–29 males: 43,779,311 (3.1%) 25–29 females: 37,770,563 (2.7%) 25–29 20–24 males: 42,415,497 (3.0%) 20–24 females: 36,141,865 (2.6%) 20–24 15–19 males: 46,340,094 (3.3%) 15–19 females: 39,577,852 (2.8%) 15–19 10–14 males: 48,503,553 (3.4%) 10–14 females: 41,971,001 (3.0%) 10–14 5–9 males: 39,075,711 (2.8%) 5–9 females: 34,559,683 (2.4%) 5–9 0–4 males: 23,622,185 (1.7%) 0–4 females: 21,431,744 (1.5%) 0–4 10%5% Age 5%10%

Key differences between Japan and China

Age. Japan is the older population, with a median age of 50.2 years against 40.6 in China — a gap of 9.6 years. China has the larger share of children (14.8% under 15 versus 11.0%), while Japan has the larger share aged 65 and over (30.2% versus 15.1%).

Births and survival. Japan’s fertility rate of 1.23 is below the replacement level, and China’s 1.03 is below it. Life expectancy at birth is 85.1 years in Japan and 79.0 in China.

Dependency. The total age dependency ratio is 70.2 in Japan (18.8 children and 51.4 older people per 100 aged 15–64) and 42.7 in China (21.1 and 21.6). Similar totals can hide very different mixes of young and old.

Outlook. Between 2026 and 2050, the UN medium scenario has Japan’s population declines by 14% and China’s declines by 11%. These are scenario results, not forecasts; how projections work explains the assumptions.

Japan vs China: indicators side by side

IndicatorJapanChina
Population, 2026122,427,7311,412,914,089
Median age50.2 years40.6 years
Under age 1511.0%14.8%
Aged 15–6458.8%70.1%
Aged 65+30.2%15.1%
Age dependency ratio70.242.7
Fertility rate1.231.03
Life expectancy at birth85.1 years79.0 years
Annual growth-0.6%-0.2%
Males per 100 females95.1103.6
Population, 2050105,123,1671,260,289,093
Change, 2026–2050-14.1%-10.8%
Population, 210076,845,989633,368,113
Peak year20092021
Global population rank#12#2

2026, 2050, and 2100 values are UN World Population Prospects 2024 medium-scenario projections.

How the two pyramids could look in 2050

The same scale is kept for the projected charts, so a narrowing base or widening top can be compared directly with the 2026 shapes above.

Japan population pyramid

2050 · Share of total by five-year age group and sex

Medium projection
Japan population pyramid for 2050: males on the left and females on the right Male share Female share 100+ males: 79,858 (0.1%) 100+ females: 342,129 (0.3%) 100+ 95–99 males: 383,414 (0.4%) 95–99 females: 1,043,047 (1.0%) 95–99 90–94 males: 1,055,492 (1.0%) 90–94 females: 1,963,489 (1.9%) 90–94 85–89 males: 2,020,391 (1.9%) 85–89 females: 2,868,114 (2.7%) 85–89 80–84 males: 3,005,939 (2.9%) 80–84 females: 3,643,200 (3.5%) 80–84 75–79 males: 4,011,797 (3.8%) 75–79 females: 4,519,449 (4.3%) 75–79 70–74 males: 3,701,172 (3.5%) 70–74 females: 3,965,595 (3.8%) 70–74 65–69 males: 3,348,020 (3.2%) 65–69 females: 3,450,423 (3.3%) 65–69 60–64 males: 3,064,753 (2.9%) 60–64 females: 3,048,097 (2.9%) 60–64 55–59 males: 2,857,753 (2.7%) 55–59 females: 2,798,814 (2.7%) 55–59 50–54 males: 2,856,128 (2.7%) 50–54 females: 2,782,633 (2.6%) 50–54 45–49 males: 2,996,718 (2.9%) 45–49 females: 2,905,363 (2.8%) 45–49 40–44 males: 3,064,838 (2.9%) 40–44 females: 2,994,515 (2.8%) 40–44 35–39 males: 2,956,861 (2.8%) 35–39 females: 2,893,658 (2.8%) 35–39 30–34 males: 2,708,505 (2.6%) 30–34 females: 2,669,806 (2.5%) 30–34 25–29 males: 2,409,483 (2.3%) 25–29 females: 2,393,620 (2.3%) 25–29 20–24 males: 2,248,930 (2.1%) 20–24 females: 2,217,760 (2.1%) 20–24 15–19 males: 2,046,842 (1.9%) 15–19 females: 1,983,560 (1.9%) 15–19 10–14 males: 2,051,023 (2.0%) 10–14 females: 1,976,018 (1.9%) 10–14 5–9 males: 2,038,550 (1.9%) 5–9 females: 1,957,742 (1.9%) 5–9 0–4 males: 1,942,271 (1.8%) 0–4 females: 1,857,395 (1.8%) 0–4 10%5% Age 5%10%

China population pyramid

2050 · Share of total by five-year age group and sex

Medium projection
China population pyramid for 2050: males on the left and females on the right Male share Female share 100+ males: 55,075 (0.0%) 100+ females: 330,553 (0.0%) 100+ 95–99 males: 1,081,873 (0.1%) 95–99 females: 3,112,890 (0.2%) 95–99 90–94 males: 5,003,585 (0.4%) 90–94 females: 9,569,733 (0.8%) 90–94 85–89 males: 16,537,541 (1.3%) 85–89 females: 24,171,448 (1.9%) 85–89 80–84 males: 31,824,746 (2.5%) 80–84 females: 40,377,803 (3.2%) 80–84 75–79 males: 40,441,408 (3.2%) 75–79 females: 46,401,808 (3.7%) 75–79 70–74 males: 37,821,349 (3.0%) 70–74 females: 40,307,226 (3.2%) 70–74 65–69 males: 46,103,908 (3.7%) 65–69 females: 46,536,458 (3.7%) 65–69 60–64 males: 58,411,133 (4.6%) 60–64 females: 55,918,906 (4.4%) 60–64 55–59 males: 49,691,348 (3.9%) 55–59 females: 45,343,506 (3.6%) 55–59 50–54 males: 43,219,668 (3.4%) 50–54 females: 37,980,580 (3.0%) 50–54 45–49 males: 41,725,938 (3.3%) 45–49 females: 35,891,461 (2.8%) 45–49 40–44 males: 44,633,383 (3.5%) 40–44 females: 38,141,647 (3.0%) 40–44 35–39 males: 47,457,181 (3.8%) 35–39 females: 40,912,096 (3.2%) 35–39 30–34 males: 41,757,181 (3.3%) 30–34 females: 36,643,899 (2.9%) 30–34 25–29 males: 24,045,679 (1.9%) 25–29 females: 21,623,096 (1.7%) 25–29 20–24 males: 21,315,635 (1.7%) 20–24 females: 19,522,436 (1.5%) 20–24 15–19 males: 21,251,827 (1.7%) 15–19 females: 19,804,263 (1.6%) 15–19 10–14 males: 21,857,089 (1.7%) 10–14 females: 20,492,676 (1.6%) 10–14 5–9 males: 22,168,251 (1.8%) 5–9 females: 20,840,371 (1.7%) 5–9 0–4 males: 20,582,914 (1.6%) 0–4 females: 19,379,528 (1.5%) 0–4 10%5% Age 5%10%

What shapes Japan’s pyramid

Japan’s pyramid shows two baby booms, at ages 75–79 and 50–54, but no third: the expected echo never arrived, leaving one of the world’s narrowest bases. Read the full Japan analysis.

What shapes China’s pyramid

China’s pyramid carries a famine notch at ages 65–69, a 1960s baby-boom bulge above 55 and a thin, male-heavy base after decades of birth limits. Read the full China analysis.

Explore each country in depth

Questions about Japan and China

Which population is older, Japan or China?

Japan is older: its projected 2026 median age is 50.2 years, compared with 40.6 in China.

Which has a higher fertility rate, Japan or China?

Japan has the higher total fertility rate in 2026: 1.23 births per woman, against 1.03 in China.

Will Japan or China have more people in 2050?

Under the UN medium scenario, China is projected to be larger in 2050, with 1.26B people against 105.1M.