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China vs United States: population pyramids compared

China is about 4.0 times as large as United States, but size is only part of the story. Compare the two age structures on one percentage scale for 2026 and 2050, with every indicator side by side.

Estimate or projection?

UN estimates run through 2023; figures from 2024 onward are medium-scenario projections.

China and United States in 2026

China population pyramid

2026 · Share of total by five-year age group and sex

Medium projection
China population pyramid for 2026: males on the left and females on the right Male share Female share 100+ males: 4,341 (0.0%) 100+ females: 48,372 (0.0%) 100+ 95–99 males: 138,219 (0.0%) 95–99 females: 546,329 (0.0%) 95–99 90–94 males: 1,220,953 (0.1%) 90–94 females: 2,877,048 (0.2%) 90–94 85–89 males: 4,219,703 (0.3%) 85–89 females: 7,091,868 (0.5%) 85–89 80–84 males: 9,334,663 (0.7%) 80–84 females: 13,003,786 (0.9%) 80–84 75–79 males: 18,687,832 (1.3%) 75–79 females: 23,697,183 (1.7%) 75–79 70–74 males: 30,704,345 (2.2%) 70–74 females: 36,374,753 (2.6%) 70–74 65–69 males: 31,394,266 (2.2%) 65–69 females: 34,433,815 (2.4%) 65–69 60–64 males: 50,867,520 (3.6%) 60–64 females: 52,813,111 (3.7%) 60–64 55–59 males: 59,033,504 (4.2%) 55–59 females: 59,415,075 (4.2%) 55–59 50–54 males: 55,143,349 (3.9%) 50–54 females: 54,078,416 (3.8%) 50–54 45–49 males: 47,164,339 (3.3%) 45–49 females: 45,300,863 (3.2%) 45–49 40–44 males: 54,302,383 (3.8%) 40–44 females: 51,170,709 (3.6%) 40–44 35–39 males: 63,689,179 (4.5%) 35–39 females: 58,292,077 (4.1%) 35–39 30–34 males: 49,167,853 (3.5%) 30–34 females: 43,509,173 (3.1%) 30–34 25–29 males: 43,779,311 (3.1%) 25–29 females: 37,770,563 (2.7%) 25–29 20–24 males: 42,415,497 (3.0%) 20–24 females: 36,141,865 (2.6%) 20–24 15–19 males: 46,340,094 (3.3%) 15–19 females: 39,577,852 (2.8%) 15–19 10–14 males: 48,503,553 (3.4%) 10–14 females: 41,971,001 (3.0%) 10–14 5–9 males: 39,075,711 (2.8%) 5–9 females: 34,559,683 (2.4%) 5–9 0–4 males: 23,622,185 (1.7%) 0–4 females: 21,431,744 (1.5%) 0–4 10%5% Age 5%10%

United States population pyramid

2026 · Share of total by five-year age group and sex

Medium projection
United States population pyramid for 2026: males on the left and females on the right Male share Female share 100+ males: 18,022 (0.0%) 100+ females: 59,025 (0.0%) 100+ 95–99 males: 165,623 (0.0%) 95–99 females: 383,880 (0.1%) 95–99 90–94 males: 694,138 (0.2%) 90–94 females: 1,262,074 (0.4%) 90–94 85–89 males: 1,757,672 (0.5%) 85–89 females: 2,637,973 (0.8%) 85–89 80–84 males: 3,635,964 (1.0%) 80–84 females: 4,631,952 (1.3%) 80–84 75–79 males: 6,042,180 (1.7%) 75–79 females: 7,108,404 (2.0%) 75–79 70–74 males: 8,040,301 (2.3%) 70–74 females: 8,981,422 (2.6%) 70–74 65–69 males: 9,910,054 (2.8%) 65–69 females: 10,428,041 (3.0%) 65–69 60–64 males: 10,548,446 (3.0%) 60–64 females: 10,660,028 (3.1%) 60–64 55–59 males: 10,480,532 (3.0%) 55–59 females: 10,283,180 (2.9%) 55–59 50–54 males: 10,280,376 (2.9%) 50–54 females: 9,907,453 (2.8%) 50–54 45–49 males: 11,227,103 (3.2%) 45–49 females: 10,698,967 (3.1%) 45–49 40–44 males: 12,004,074 (3.4%) 40–44 females: 11,314,275 (3.2%) 40–44 35–39 males: 12,570,419 (3.6%) 35–39 females: 11,771,564 (3.4%) 35–39 30–34 males: 12,170,274 (3.5%) 30–34 females: 11,341,655 (3.2%) 30–34 25–29 males: 11,800,869 (3.4%) 25–29 females: 11,017,155 (3.2%) 25–29 20–24 males: 12,122,102 (3.5%) 20–24 females: 11,402,933 (3.3%) 20–24 15–19 males: 11,671,004 (3.3%) 15–19 females: 11,001,638 (3.2%) 15–19 10–14 males: 10,773,888 (3.1%) 10–14 females: 10,190,129 (2.9%) 10–14 5–9 males: 9,937,547 (2.8%) 5–9 females: 9,464,097 (2.7%) 5–9 0–4 males: 9,548,528 (2.7%) 0–4 females: 9,090,535 (2.6%) 0–4 10%5% Age 5%10%

Key differences between China and United States

Age. China is the older population, with a median age of 40.6 years against 38.7 in United States — a gap of 1.9 years. United States has the larger share of children (16.9% under 15 versus 14.8%), while United States has the larger share aged 65 and over (18.8% versus 15.1%).

Births and survival. United States’s fertility rate of 1.62 is below the replacement level, and China’s 1.03 is below it. Life expectancy at birth is 79.8 years in United States and 79.0 in China.

Dependency. The total age dependency ratio is 42.7 in China (21.1 children and 21.6 older people per 100 aged 15–64) and 55.6 in United States (26.3 and 29.3). Similar totals can hide very different mixes of young and old.

Outlook. Between 2026 and 2050, the UN medium scenario has China’s population declines by 11% and United States’s grows by 9%. These are scenario results, not forecasts; how projections work explains the assumptions.

China vs United States: indicators side by side

IndicatorChinaUnited States
Population, 20261,412,914,089349,035,494
Median age40.6 years38.7 years
Under age 1514.8%16.9%
Aged 15–6470.1%64.3%
Aged 65+15.1%18.8%
Age dependency ratio42.755.6
Fertility rate1.031.62
Life expectancy at birth79.0 years79.8 years
Annual growth-0.2%+0.5%
Males per 100 females103.6101.0
Population, 20501,260,289,093380,846,910
Change, 2026–2050-10.8%+9.1%
Population, 2100633,368,113421,278,889
Peak year2021Still rising in 2100
Global population rank#2#3

2026, 2050, and 2100 values are UN World Population Prospects 2024 medium-scenario projections.

How the two pyramids could look in 2050

The same scale is kept for the projected charts, so a narrowing base or widening top can be compared directly with the 2026 shapes above.

China population pyramid

2050 · Share of total by five-year age group and sex

Medium projection
China population pyramid for 2050: males on the left and females on the right Male share Female share 100+ males: 55,075 (0.0%) 100+ females: 330,553 (0.0%) 100+ 95–99 males: 1,081,873 (0.1%) 95–99 females: 3,112,890 (0.2%) 95–99 90–94 males: 5,003,585 (0.4%) 90–94 females: 9,569,733 (0.8%) 90–94 85–89 males: 16,537,541 (1.3%) 85–89 females: 24,171,448 (1.9%) 85–89 80–84 males: 31,824,746 (2.5%) 80–84 females: 40,377,803 (3.2%) 80–84 75–79 males: 40,441,408 (3.2%) 75–79 females: 46,401,808 (3.7%) 75–79 70–74 males: 37,821,349 (3.0%) 70–74 females: 40,307,226 (3.2%) 70–74 65–69 males: 46,103,908 (3.7%) 65–69 females: 46,536,458 (3.7%) 65–69 60–64 males: 58,411,133 (4.6%) 60–64 females: 55,918,906 (4.4%) 60–64 55–59 males: 49,691,348 (3.9%) 55–59 females: 45,343,506 (3.6%) 55–59 50–54 males: 43,219,668 (3.4%) 50–54 females: 37,980,580 (3.0%) 50–54 45–49 males: 41,725,938 (3.3%) 45–49 females: 35,891,461 (2.8%) 45–49 40–44 males: 44,633,383 (3.5%) 40–44 females: 38,141,647 (3.0%) 40–44 35–39 males: 47,457,181 (3.8%) 35–39 females: 40,912,096 (3.2%) 35–39 30–34 males: 41,757,181 (3.3%) 30–34 females: 36,643,899 (2.9%) 30–34 25–29 males: 24,045,679 (1.9%) 25–29 females: 21,623,096 (1.7%) 25–29 20–24 males: 21,315,635 (1.7%) 20–24 females: 19,522,436 (1.5%) 20–24 15–19 males: 21,251,827 (1.7%) 15–19 females: 19,804,263 (1.6%) 15–19 10–14 males: 21,857,089 (1.7%) 10–14 females: 20,492,676 (1.6%) 10–14 5–9 males: 22,168,251 (1.8%) 5–9 females: 20,840,371 (1.7%) 5–9 0–4 males: 20,582,914 (1.6%) 0–4 females: 19,379,528 (1.5%) 0–4 10%5% Age 5%10%

United States population pyramid

2050 · Share of total by five-year age group and sex

Medium projection
United States population pyramid for 2050: males on the left and females on the right Male share Female share 100+ males: 69,477 (0.0%) 100+ females: 172,360 (0.0%) 100+ 95–99 males: 611,216 (0.2%) 95–99 females: 1,096,375 (0.3%) 95–99 90–94 males: 2,426,001 (0.6%) 90–94 females: 3,438,975 (0.9%) 90–94 85–89 males: 4,931,394 (1.3%) 85–89 females: 6,047,913 (1.6%) 85–89 80–84 males: 6,581,919 (1.7%) 80–84 females: 7,397,668 (1.9%) 80–84 75–79 males: 7,782,560 (2.0%) 75–79 females: 8,263,771 (2.2%) 75–79 70–74 males: 9,070,705 (2.4%) 70–74 females: 9,257,809 (2.4%) 70–74 65–69 males: 10,488,331 (2.8%) 65–69 females: 10,380,074 (2.7%) 65–69 60–64 males: 11,431,944 (3.0%) 60–64 females: 11,022,321 (2.9%) 60–64 55–59 males: 11,760,935 (3.1%) 55–59 females: 11,120,972 (2.9%) 55–59 50–54 males: 11,450,059 (3.0%) 50–54 females: 10,669,129 (2.8%) 50–54 45–49 males: 12,359,138 (3.2%) 45–49 females: 11,525,454 (3.0%) 45–49 40–44 males: 13,334,763 (3.5%) 40–44 females: 12,489,163 (3.3%) 40–44 35–39 males: 12,822,874 (3.4%) 35–39 females: 12,006,618 (3.2%) 35–39 30–34 males: 12,377,229 (3.2%) 30–34 females: 11,643,355 (3.1%) 30–34 25–29 males: 12,010,578 (3.2%) 25–29 females: 11,318,110 (3.0%) 25–29 20–24 males: 11,486,612 (3.0%) 20–24 females: 10,833,506 (2.8%) 20–24 15–19 males: 10,608,560 (2.8%) 15–19 females: 9,976,617 (2.6%) 15–19 10–14 males: 10,611,560 (2.8%) 10–14 females: 9,987,373 (2.6%) 10–14 5–9 males: 10,513,606 (2.8%) 5–9 females: 9,920,705 (2.6%) 5–9 0–4 males: 10,037,615 (2.6%) 0–4 females: 9,511,561 (2.5%) 0–4 10%5% Age 5%10%

What shapes China’s pyramid

China’s pyramid carries a famine notch at ages 65–69, a 1960s baby-boom bulge above 55 and a thin, male-heavy base after decades of birth limits. Read the full China analysis.

What shapes United States’s pyramid

The US pyramid still bears the baby boom as a broad shoulder at ages 60–79, while immigration keeps its 20–44 bands the widest in a slowly ageing country. Read the full United States analysis.

Explore each country in depth

Questions about China and United States

Which population is older, China or United States?

China is older: its projected 2026 median age is 40.6 years, compared with 38.7 in United States.

Which has a higher fertility rate, China or United States?

United States has the higher total fertility rate in 2026: 1.62 births per woman, against 1.03 in China.

Will China or United States have more people in 2050?

Under the UN medium scenario, China is projected to be larger in 2050, with 1.26B people against 380.8M.