Nigeria population pyramid 2026
242,431,832 people in 2026 (projected). Nigeria has a textbook expansive pyramid: about 40% of people are under 15, and each age band is narrower than the one below it all the way up.
- 2026 population
- 242.4Mrank 6 of 237
- Median age
- 18.3 yearsoldest rank 218
- Fertility rate
- 4.20births per woman · above replacement
- Structure
- Youthful3.1% age 65+
Nigeria population pyramid
2026 · Share of total by five-year age group and sex
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The UN series provides historical estimates through 2023. Figures from 2024 onward—including 2026—are medium-scenario projections, not counts or predictions guaranteed to occur.
Nigeria age distribution in 2026
Children under 15 account for 40.0% of the population, while 3.1% are aged 65 or older. The remaining 56.9% are in the conventional working-age range of 15–64. On these shares, the site classifies Nigeria’s age structure as youthful; the guide to expansive population pyramids explains what that shape implies.
The total age dependency ratio is 75.8: about 76 people under 15 or 65+ for every 100 people aged 15–64 (70.3 children and 5.4 older people). This is an age-balance indicator, not a literal count of economic dependants per worker.
What shapes Nigeria’s population pyramid
A pyramid with straight, steep sides
Nigeria’s 2026 pyramid is close to the classroom ideal of an expansive pyramid. About 40% of the population is under 15, the median age is about 18, and every five-year band is smaller than the one beneath it, with no notches or bulges from wars or policy campaigns. Two forces produce this shape. Fertility remains high, at about 4.2 children per woman in the UN estimates, so each new birth cohort is larger than the last. Mortality is also high by global standards, with life expectancy around 55, so cohorts shrink noticeably as they age and the sides fall away steeply above age 40. People aged 65 and over make up only about 3% of the total.
Early signs of a turn
The base has begun to change. In 2000 the 0–4 band was about a quarter larger than the 5–9 band; in 2026 it is less than a tenth larger, because fertility has been falling slowly. The decline is uneven: Demographic and Health Surveys have consistently found much higher fertility in the northern states, especially the north-west, than in the south, so the national pyramid averages very different regional patterns. The India vs Nigeria comparison shows what a further fall in fertility does to a pyramid’s base, while Nigeria vs Japan sets the two extremes of age structure side by side.
Uncertain counts, strong momentum
Nigeria has not held a census since 2006, whose results were disputed, and a census planned for 2023 was postponed. Estimates of the age structure therefore lean heavily on household surveys, and the true population size is less certain than for most large countries. What is not in doubt is the population momentum: the children now aged 0–14 will reach parenthood over the next two decades, so the number of births keeps rising even as births per woman fall. The Nigeria 2100 pyramid shows the beehive shape the UN projects once fertility approaches replacement.
Under the UN medium scenario Nigeria grows to about 359 million people by 2050, with a median age near 24 and a base that has almost stopped widening.
What to notice across the years
Distinctive cohorts and turning points
No five-year band under age 80 is more than 10% larger or smaller than both of its neighbours, so Nigeria’s 2026 pyramid has a comparatively smooth profile without sharp bulges or notches.
In the UN medium scenario births outnumber deaths in every year through 2100. Children under 15 outnumber people aged 65 and older in every pyramid year through 2100.
Births, deaths, and migration
A pyramid changes in only three ways: births add to the base, deaths remove people at every age, and migration adds or removes people mainly in young adulthood. In 2026, Nigeria is projected to record 7,711,752 births (about one birth every 4.1 seconds) and 2,780,783 deaths, a natural increase of 4,930,969. Net migration adds −2,810 people, ranking #97 in the net migration rate ranking.
Between 2000 and 2023 the UN estimates 164,533,200 births, 59,012,749 deaths, and cumulative net migration of +77,060. Over that period the balance of births and deaths moved the total more than migration did. See how migration shapes a pyramid and birth rate versus fertility rate. The medium scenario assumes net migration of +893,038 between 2026 and 2050.
Annual values 1950–2100; dashed lines after 2023 are the UN medium projection. The trend table below lists the values by decade.
Life expectancy and mortality
- Life expectancy, women
- 55.3 years37.5 in 1950
- Life expectancy, men
- 54.6 years33.6 in 1950
- Further years at 65
- 12.2 yearsboth sexes
- Infant mortality
- 66.9per 1,000 births · 163 in 1950
- Under-five mortality
- 100.7per 1,000 births
- Mother’s mean age at birth
- 29.1 yearssex ratio at birth 103.8
Women in Nigeria are projected to live 0.7 years longer than men, which is why the female side of the pyramid widens relative to the other at older ages (see the life expectancy gap ranking). Infant mortality has fallen from 163 to 66.9 deaths per 1,000 live births since 1950, ranking #2 of 237 in the infant mortality ranking (highest first). A mean age at childbearing of 29.1 years sets the spacing between generations, and so how far apart echo cohorts sit in the pyramid.
Median age, fertility rate, and global ranks for Nigeria
The median age of 18.3 years splits the population into two equal halves. A total fertility rate of 4.20 births per woman is above the replacement level of roughly 2.1, and life expectancy at birth is 55.0 years.
These ranks compare all 237 countries and areas in this dataset using the same 2026 UN medium projection. Ranks use the stored source precision, so displayed rounding can make adjacent values look identical; small differences should not be overinterpreted.
| Indicator | 2026 value | Global rank | Ranking direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Population | 242,431,832 | #6 | Largest first |
| Median age | 18.3 years | #218 | Oldest first |
| Fertility rate | 4.20 | #16 | Highest first |
| Annual growth | +2.0% | #43 | Fastest first |
| Life expectancy | 55.0 years | #237 | Highest first |
| Population aged 65+ | 3.1% | #213 | Highest share first |
Largest age groups in Nigeria
The five largest cohorts identify where the 2026 population is concentrated. They can reflect past birth patterns, survival, and migration; the chart alone does not establish which cause dominates.
| Rank | Age group | Population | Share of total | Male / female |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0–4 | 34,641,867 | 14.3% | 17.5M / 17.1M |
| 2 | 5–9 | 31,740,912 | 13.1% | 16.1M / 15.6M |
| 3 | 10–14 | 30,627,527 | 12.6% | 15.6M / 15.1M |
| 4 | 15–19 | 27,598,659 | 11.4% | 14.1M / 13.5M |
| 5 | 20–24 | 23,734,728 | 9.8% | 12.1M / 11.6M |
Sex ratio and the balance by age
In the 2026 projection, Nigeria has 122,708,307 males and 119,723,524 females. That is 102.5 males per 100 females, ranking #41 when the dataset is ordered from the highest male-to-female ratio to the lowest.
Males account for 50.6% of the population and females for 49.4%. There are 2,984,783 more males than females overall. Among people aged 65 and older, the ratio is 90.7 males per 100 females.
The overall balance can conceal large differences by age; how sex ratios change with age explains the usual pattern. The ratio reflects the male/female categories in the UN source and is not a measure of gender identity. Compare all profiles in the sex-ratio ranking.
At birth, 103.8 boys are projected to be born for every 100 girls in 2026, close to the biological norm of about 105 (compare the sex ratio at birth ranking). The ratio at birth sets the balance at the base of the pyramid; how it changes with age then depends on survival and migration.
How Nigeria has changed since 1950
The population has increased from 37,283,010 in 1950 to 242,431,832 in 2026, a change of 550%. Over the same span, median age moved from 18.1 to 18.3 years.
The under-15 share changed from 41.7% to 40.0%, while the share aged 65 and older changed from 3.0% to 3.1%. These shifts show why total population growth and age-structure change need to be read separately. See the Nigeria population pyramid in 1950 for the full starting shape.
How the population could change by 2050
Under the UN medium scenario, Nigeria’s population is projected to grow by about 48%, reaching 359,185,556 in 2050. The median age changes from 18.3 to 23.9 years.
The 65+ share is projected to rise by 1.4 percentage points to 4.5%. At the same time, the under-15 share is projected at 30.9%. The Nigeria population pyramid for 2050 shows the projected shape in detail. How UN projections work explains the assumptions behind these figures.
The population is still rising at the end of the UN medium projection in 2100, when it reaches 476,747,781. The page therefore does not assign a peak year beyond the available horizon.
Population trend: 1950–2100
Mid-year population for every year. Estimates through 2023; dashed line shows the UN medium projection.
| Year | Population | Median age | Fertility | Life exp. | Births | Deaths | Net migration | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1950 | 37,283,010 | 18.1 | 6.42 | 35.5 | 1,706,938 | 1,025,753 | +20,515 | +1.9% |
| 1960 | 45,053,782 | 18.3 | 6.36 | 37.2 | 2,093,279 | 1,191,984 | +12,131 | +2.0% |
| 1970 | 55,893,838 | 17.9 | 6.47 | 40.0 | 2,648,473 | 1,352,961 | +7,953 | +2.3% |
| 1980 | 73,764,641 | 16.7 | 6.85 | 46.0 | 3,561,961 | 1,440,350 | +198,672 | +3.1% |
| 1990 | 97,120,925 | 16.2 | 6.46 | 45.7 | 4,323,148 | 1,831,199 | +135,959 | +2.7% |
| 2000 | 126,382,494 | 16.8 | 6.12 | 47.1 | 5,547,161 | 2,203,964 | +74,535 | +2.7% |
| 2010 | 166,642,886 | 16.7 | 5.95 | 51.3 | 7,022,105 | 2,392,929 | +47,966 | +2.8% |
| 2020 | 213,996,181 | 17.2 | 4.70 | 53.1 | 7,218,484 | 2,693,283 | −14,497 | +2.1% |
| 2023 | 227,882,945 | 17.8 | 4.48 | 54.5 | 7,509,758 | 2,675,442 | −57,936 | +2.1% |
| 2024* | 232,679,478 | 17.9 | 4.38 | 54.6 | 7,560,407 | 2,708,530 | −35,202 | +2.1% |
| 2026* | 242,431,832 | 18.3 | 4.20 | 55.0 | 7,711,752 | 2,780,783 | −2,810 | +2.0% |
| 2030* | 262,380,970 | 19.3 | 3.82 | 55.6 | 7,944,601 | 2,938,007 | +24,085 | +1.9% |
| 2040* | 312,710,416 | 21.7 | 3.10 | 57.1 | 8,226,065 | 3,342,461 | +41,202 | +1.6% |
| 2050* | 359,185,556 | 23.9 | 2.66 | 58.5 | 8,080,118 | 3,768,006 | +56,965 | +1.2% |
| 2060* | 399,785,267 | 26.3 | 2.39 | 59.9 | 7,958,840 | 4,247,292 | +35,278 | +0.9% |
| 2070* | 433,485,694 | 28.8 | 2.20 | 61.2 | 7,680,672 | 4,792,600 | +40,521 | +0.7% |
| 2080* | 457,921,590 | 31.0 | 2.07 | 62.5 | 7,324,512 | 5,461,577 | +54,860 | +0.4% |
| 2090* | 471,885,519 | 32.8 | 1.98 | 63.6 | 6,985,656 | 6,138,805 | +51,252 | +0.2% |
| 2100* | 476,747,781 | 34.3 | 1.91 | 64.7 | 6,624,188 | 6,572,322 | +58,541 | +0.0% |
* 2024 onward is the UN medium projection. Fertility is births per woman; life expectancy is years at birth; births, deaths, and net migration are counts for that calendar year.
Download every year, 1950–2100 (CSV)
2026 population by age and sex
The table provides the counts behind the chart. Age groups are five-year bands, with everyone aged 100 or older combined.
| Age group | Male | Female | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–4 | 17,540,276 | 17,101,591 | 34,641,867 | 14.3% |
| 5–9 | 16,101,674 | 15,639,238 | 31,740,912 | 13.1% |
| 10–14 | 15,573,018 | 15,054,509 | 30,627,527 | 12.6% |
| 15–19 | 14,062,075 | 13,536,584 | 27,598,659 | 11.4% |
| 20–24 | 12,090,766 | 11,643,962 | 23,734,728 | 9.8% |
| 25–29 | 9,611,409 | 9,271,556 | 18,882,965 | 7.8% |
| 30–34 | 7,896,466 | 7,616,939 | 15,513,405 | 6.4% |
| 35–39 | 6,653,154 | 6,459,820 | 13,112,974 | 5.4% |
| 40–44 | 5,799,180 | 5,651,194 | 11,450,374 | 4.7% |
| 45–49 | 4,920,225 | 4,820,730 | 9,740,955 | 4.0% |
| 50–54 | 3,829,249 | 3,808,244 | 7,637,493 | 3.2% |
| 55–59 | 2,890,564 | 2,921,213 | 5,811,777 | 2.4% |
| 60–64 | 2,174,684 | 2,267,628 | 4,442,312 | 1.8% |
| 65–69 | 1,566,469 | 1,685,515 | 3,251,984 | 1.3% |
| 70–74 | 1,027,422 | 1,136,195 | 2,163,617 | 0.9% |
| 75–79 | 582,732 | 658,470 | 1,241,202 | 0.5% |
| 80–84 | 282,999 | 317,894 | 600,893 | 0.2% |
| 85–89 | 88,751 | 107,174 | 195,925 | 0.1% |
| 90–94 | 15,790 | 22,368 | 38,158 | 0.0% |
| 95–99 | 1,348 | 2,550 | 3,898 | 0.0% |
| 100+ | 56 | 152 | 208 | 0.0% |
Countries with the most similar age structure
These profiles have the 2026 age distributions closest to Nigeria’s, measured by the total difference in the share of the population in each five-year band. Similar shapes can arise from very different histories, so the match is a starting point for comparison, not an explanation.
- Liberia99% overlap · median age 19.0
- Burkina Faso98% overlap · median age 18.0
- Benin98% overlap · median age 18.2
- Mauritania98% overlap · median age 17.5
- Zambia98% overlap · median age 18.2
- Cameroon98% overlap · median age 18.2
Compare Nigeria with other countries
Side-by-side pages put two pyramids on the same percentage scale, with a full indicator table and the projected change to 2050.
To calculate school-age, working-age, or older groups with other boundaries, use the age-group calculator for Nigeria.
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Charts and tables may be reused with attribution. Please link to this page and credit the United Nations as the data source.
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APA
World Population Pyramid. (2026, October 19). Nigeria Population Pyramid 2026. https://worldpopulationpyramid.com/countries/nigeria/
MLA
“Nigeria Population Pyramid 2026.” World Population Pyramid, 19 Oct. 2026, worldpopulationpyramid.com/countries/nigeria/.
Chicago
World Population Pyramid. “Nigeria Population Pyramid 2026.” Last modified October 19, 2026. https://worldpopulationpyramid.com/countries/nigeria/.
Underlying data: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2024). World Population Prospects 2024.
Frequently asked questions
What is the population of Nigeria in 2026?
Under the UN World Population Prospects 2024 medium scenario, Nigeria's population in 2026 is projected at 242,431,832.
What is the median age in Nigeria?
The projected median age in Nigeria in 2026 is 18.3 years: half the population is younger and half is older.
What is the fertility rate in Nigeria?
The projected total fertility rate in 2026 is 4.20 births per woman, above the replacement level of about 2.1 in low-mortality populations.
Is Nigeria's population projected to grow?
Between 2026 and 2050, the UN medium scenario indicates the population will grow by about 48%, from 242.4M to 359.2M.
What share of Nigeria is aged 65 or older?
In 2026, 3.1% of the projected population is aged 65 or older. By 2050, the medium scenario places the share at 4.5%.
How many babies are born in Nigeria each year?
The UN medium scenario projects 7,711,752 births and 2,780,783 deaths in 2026, about one birth every 4.1 seconds. Births exceed deaths by 4,930,969.
What is life expectancy in Nigeria for men and women?
Life expectancy at birth in 2026 is projected at 55.3 years for women and 54.6 years for men, a gap of 0.7 years in favour of women.
Does Nigeria have more immigrants or emigrants?
Nigeria is projected to lose about 2,810 more people through emigration than it gains in 2026. Between 2000 and 2023 the UN estimates cumulative net migration of +77,060.
What is the sex ratio in Nigeria?
The projected 2026 population sex ratio is 102.5 males per 100 females. This all-age ratio is different from the sex ratio at birth and can vary substantially by age.
Sources and notes
- United Nations, DESA, Population Division: World Population Prospects 2024, medium scenario.
- Population values are mid-year figures. Source values published in thousands are converted to people; displayed figures may imply more precision than is appropriate for planning.
- Historical values through 2023 are estimates. Values from 2024 onward are projections.
- Calculations follow the site methodology.