Ethiopia population pyramid 2026
138,902,185 people in 2026 (projected). Ethiopia’s pyramid is still broad-based, but the step between its youngest bands has more than halved since 2000 as fertility fell sharply.
- 2026 population
- 138.9Mrank 10 of 237
- Median age
- 19.3 yearsoldest rank 207
- Fertility rate
- 3.72births per woman · above replacement
- Structure
- Youthful3.4% age 65+
Ethiopia population pyramid
2026 · Share of total by five-year age group and sex
Hover over or tap a bar to see exact values.
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The UN series provides historical estimates through 2023. Figures from 2024 onward—including 2026—are medium-scenario projections, not counts or predictions guaranteed to occur.
Ethiopia age distribution in 2026
Children under 15 account for 38.5% of the population, while 3.4% are aged 65 or older. The remaining 58.1% are in the conventional working-age range of 15–64. On these shares, the site classifies Ethiopia’s age structure as youthful; the guide to expansive population pyramids explains what that shape implies.
The total age dependency ratio is 72.1: about 72 people under 15 or 65+ for every 100 people aged 15–64 (66.3 children and 5.8 older people). This is an age-balance indicator, not a literal count of economic dependants per worker.
What shapes Ethiopia’s population pyramid
High fertility into the 2000s
For most of the twentieth century Ethiopia had one of the steepest pyramids in the world. Fertility was around seven children per woman through the 1980s and 1990s, and in 2000 the 0–4 band was about a quarter wider than the 5–9 band, the shape described in the guide to the expansive population pyramid. Wars and the famine of 1983–85 caused great loss of life, but their effects are spread across many ages and do not appear as a distinct notch in the five-year bands.
In the 2026 pyramid, women slightly outnumber men from about age 45 upward, in cohorts born before the early 1980s. Longer female survival explains part of this; higher male mortality during the conflicts of the 1970s–1990s may also contribute, but the chart alone cannot separate the two.
A fertility transition under way
Since 2000 fertility has fallen to under four children per woman. Expanded rural health services and rising contraceptive use are widely credited, and the decline has been uneven: Demographic and Health Surveys have found fertility in Addis Ababa below replacement level while rural regions remain far higher. In the pyramid the change shows up as a softer slope at the bottom. The 0–4 band, children born in 2022–26, is now only about 10% wider than the 5–9 band, compared with roughly 23% in 2000.
The base is still the widest bar, and the 15–19 and 20–24 bands, people born in 2002–11, are much larger than the cohorts above them. As they move into their childbearing years they keep births high even while family size falls, so growth will continue for decades through population momentum. The Germany and Ethiopia comparison sets this young structure against one of Europe’s oldest, and the Nigeria and Ethiopia comparison shows two of Africa’s largest countries at similar stages of the transition.
Under the UN medium scenario Ethiopia grows from about 139 million in 2026 to roughly 225 million by 2050, with the median age rising only to about 25.
What to notice across the years
Distinctive cohorts and turning points
No five-year band under age 80 is more than 10% larger or smaller than both of its neighbours, so Ethiopia’s 2026 pyramid has a comparatively smooth profile without sharp bulges or notches.
In the UN medium scenario births outnumber deaths in every year through 2100. Children under 15 outnumber people aged 65 and older in every pyramid year through 2100.
Births, deaths, and migration
A pyramid changes in only three ways: births add to the base, deaths remove people at every age, and migration adds or removes people mainly in young adulthood. In 2026, Ethiopia is projected to record 4,213,081 births (about one birth every 7.5 seconds) and 795,185 deaths, a natural increase of 3,417,896. Net migration adds +27,298 people, ranking #89 in the net migration rate ranking.
Between 2000 and 2023 the UN estimates 83,481,935 births, 20,083,650 deaths, and cumulative net migration of +562,134. Over that period the balance of births and deaths moved the total more than migration did. See how migration shapes a pyramid and birth rate versus fertility rate. The medium scenario assumes net migration of +1,067,376 between 2026 and 2050.
Annual values 1950–2100; dashed lines after 2023 are the UN medium projection. The trend table below lists the values by decade.
Life expectancy and mortality
- Life expectancy, women
- 71.6 years39.1 in 1950
- Life expectancy, men
- 64.9 years32.3 in 1950
- Further years at 65
- 14.8 yearsboth sexes
- Infant mortality
- 29.9per 1,000 births · 200 in 1950
- Under-five mortality
- 40.5per 1,000 births
- Mother’s mean age at birth
- 29.0 yearssex ratio at birth 105.5
Women in Ethiopia are projected to live 6.7 years longer than men, which is why the female side of the pyramid widens relative to the other at older ages (see the life expectancy gap ranking). Infant mortality has fallen from 200 to 29.9 deaths per 1,000 live births since 1950, ranking #37 of 237 in the infant mortality ranking (highest first). A mean age at childbearing of 29.0 years sets the spacing between generations, and so how far apart echo cohorts sit in the pyramid.
Median age, fertility rate, and global ranks for Ethiopia
The median age of 19.3 years splits the population into two equal halves. A total fertility rate of 3.72 births per woman is above the replacement level of roughly 2.1, and life expectancy at birth is 68.1 years.
These ranks compare all 237 countries and areas in this dataset using the same 2026 UN medium projection. Ranks use the stored source precision, so displayed rounding can make adjacent values look identical; small differences should not be overinterpreted.
| Indicator | 2026 value | Global rank | Ranking direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Population | 138,902,185 | #10 | Largest first |
| Median age | 19.3 years | #207 | Oldest first |
| Fertility rate | 3.72 | #28 | Highest first |
| Annual growth | +2.5% | #22 | Fastest first |
| Life expectancy | 68.1 years | #189 | Highest first |
| Population aged 65+ | 3.4% | #201 | Highest share first |
Largest age groups in Ethiopia
The five largest cohorts identify where the 2026 population is concentrated. They can reflect past birth patterns, survival, and migration; the chart alone does not establish which cause dominates.
| Rank | Age group | Population | Share of total | Male / female |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0–4 | 19,878,335 | 14.3% | 10.2M / 9.7M |
| 2 | 5–9 | 17,985,712 | 12.9% | 9.2M / 8.8M |
| 3 | 10–14 | 15,631,946 | 11.3% | 7.9M / 7.7M |
| 4 | 15–19 | 14,948,743 | 10.8% | 7.6M / 7.4M |
| 5 | 20–24 | 14,045,898 | 10.1% | 7.1M / 7M |
Sex ratio and the balance by age
In the 2026 projection, Ethiopia has 69,593,482 males and 69,308,702 females. That is 100.4 males per 100 females, ranking #72 when the dataset is ordered from the highest male-to-female ratio to the lowest.
Males account for 50.1% of the population and females for 49.9%. There are 284,780 more males than females overall. Among people aged 65 and older, the ratio is 79.7 males per 100 females.
The overall balance can conceal large differences by age; how sex ratios change with age explains the usual pattern. The ratio reflects the male/female categories in the UN source and is not a measure of gender identity. Compare all profiles in the sex-ratio ranking.
At birth, 105.5 boys are projected to be born for every 100 girls in 2026, close to the biological norm of about 105 (compare the sex ratio at birth ranking). The ratio at birth sets the balance at the base of the pyramid; how it changes with age then depends on survival and migration.
How Ethiopia has changed since 1950
The population has increased from 17,670,412 in 1950 to 138,902,185 in 2026, a change of 686%. Over the same span, median age moved from 16.9 to 19.3 years.
The under-15 share changed from 43.8% to 38.5%, while the share aged 65 and older changed from 3.0% to 3.4%. These shifts show why total population growth and age-structure change need to be read separately. See the Ethiopia population pyramid in 1950 for the full starting shape.
How the population could change by 2050
Under the UN medium scenario, Ethiopia’s population is projected to grow by about 62%, reaching 225,021,874 in 2050. The median age changes from 19.3 to 24.6 years.
The 65+ share is projected to rise by 2.0 percentage points to 5.4%. At the same time, the under-15 share is projected at 30.0%. The Ethiopia population pyramid for 2050 shows the projected shape in detail. How UN projections work explains the assumptions behind these figures.
The population is still rising at the end of the UN medium projection in 2100, when it reaches 367,289,596. The page therefore does not assign a peak year beyond the available horizon.
Population trend: 1950–2100
Mid-year population for every year. Estimates through 2023; dashed line shows the UN medium projection.
| Year | Population | Median age | Fertility | Life exp. | Births | Deaths | Net migration | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1950 | 17,670,412 | 16.9 | 6.43 | 35.5 | 799,118 | 497,143 | +5,501 | +1.7% |
| 1960 | 21,376,693 | 17.5 | 6.51 | 39.6 | 1,023,316 | 511,624 | +1,696 | +2.4% |
| 1970 | 27,829,128 | 17.0 | 6.78 | 42.1 | 1,384,000 | 623,174 | +8,589 | +2.8% |
| 1980 | 34,428,514 | 15.7 | 7.29 | 42.8 | 1,770,840 | 763,307 | −903,529 | +0.3% |
| 1990 | 47,609,755 | 15.8 | 7.20 | 45.1 | 2,418,073 | 938,365 | +296,014 | +3.7% |
| 2000 | 67,411,494 | 15.1 | 6.65 | 50.9 | 3,073,321 | 989,649 | −49,891 | +3.0% |
| 2010 | 90,538,514 | 15.8 | 5.28 | 59.7 | 3,311,116 | 813,001 | +80,213 | +2.9% |
| 2020 | 118,917,671 | 18.1 | 4.27 | 66.0 | 3,961,198 | 761,475 | +38,866 | +2.7% |
| 2023 | 128,691,692 | 18.7 | 3.99 | 67.3 | 4,105,685 | 767,018 | −11,996 | +2.6% |
| 2024* | 132,059,767 | 18.9 | 3.91 | 67.6 | 4,155,828 | 776,409 | +30,069 | +2.6% |
| 2026* | 138,902,185 | 19.3 | 3.72 | 68.1 | 4,213,081 | 795,185 | +27,298 | +2.5% |
| 2030* | 152,855,357 | 20.2 | 3.43 | 69.2 | 4,325,561 | 836,048 | +32,379 | +2.3% |
| 2040* | 188,450,902 | 22.1 | 2.90 | 71.4 | 4,534,557 | 975,842 | +61,367 | +1.9% |
| 2050* | 225,021,874 | 24.6 | 2.55 | 73.3 | 4,791,353 | 1,178,424 | +19,219 | +1.6% |
| 2060* | 260,708,340 | 27.2 | 2.32 | 75.1 | 4,869,549 | 1,427,865 | +47,773 | +1.3% |
| 2070* | 293,790,938 | 29.6 | 2.15 | 76.9 | 4,865,932 | 1,756,502 | +6,834 | +1.1% |
| 2080* | 323,238,508 | 32.1 | 2.03 | 78.5 | 4,836,199 | 2,163,463 | −5,289 | +0.8% |
| 2090* | 347,651,463 | 34.4 | 1.94 | 80.1 | 4,740,746 | 2,587,528 | +76,920 | +0.6% |
| 2100* | 367,289,596 | 36.6 | 1.88 | 81.6 | 4,633,351 | 2,989,122 | +132,855 | +0.5% |
* 2024 onward is the UN medium projection. Fertility is births per woman; life expectancy is years at birth; births, deaths, and net migration are counts for that calendar year.
Download every year, 1950–2100 (CSV)
2026 population by age and sex
The table provides the counts behind the chart. Age groups are five-year bands, with everyone aged 100 or older combined.
| Age group | Male | Female | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–4 | 10,161,985 | 9,716,350 | 19,878,335 | 14.3% |
| 5–9 | 9,163,633 | 8,822,079 | 17,985,712 | 12.9% |
| 10–14 | 7,941,940 | 7,690,006 | 15,631,946 | 11.3% |
| 15–19 | 7,575,889 | 7,372,854 | 14,948,743 | 10.8% |
| 20–24 | 7,076,678 | 6,969,220 | 14,045,898 | 10.1% |
| 25–29 | 6,013,740 | 5,961,493 | 11,975,233 | 8.6% |
| 30–34 | 5,054,097 | 5,020,329 | 10,074,426 | 7.3% |
| 35–39 | 4,038,151 | 4,030,720 | 8,068,871 | 5.8% |
| 40–44 | 3,046,344 | 3,064,273 | 6,110,617 | 4.4% |
| 45–49 | 2,534,259 | 2,597,282 | 5,131,541 | 3.7% |
| 50–54 | 2,004,056 | 2,157,305 | 4,161,361 | 3.0% |
| 55–59 | 1,633,552 | 1,838,571 | 3,472,123 | 2.5% |
| 60–64 | 1,275,523 | 1,467,400 | 2,742,923 | 2.0% |
| 65–69 | 894,716 | 1,055,392 | 1,950,108 | 1.4% |
| 70–74 | 575,612 | 705,077 | 1,280,689 | 0.9% |
| 75–79 | 352,837 | 462,399 | 815,236 | 0.6% |
| 80–84 | 176,935 | 253,775 | 430,710 | 0.3% |
| 85–89 | 60,073 | 96,653 | 156,726 | 0.1% |
| 90–94 | 12,204 | 24,095 | 36,299 | 0.0% |
| 95–99 | 1,203 | 3,227 | 4,430 | 0.0% |
| 100+ | 55 | 202 | 257 | 0.0% |
Countries with the most similar age structure
These profiles have the 2026 age distributions closest to Ethiopia’s, measured by the total difference in the share of the population in each five-year band. Similar shapes can arise from very different histories, so the match is a starting point for comparison, not an explanation.
- Madagascar98% overlap · median age 19.4
- Sudan98% overlap · median age 18.8
- Guinea98% overlap · median age 18.5
- Senegal98% overlap · median age 19.8
- Sierra Leone98% overlap · median age 19.9
- Gambia98% overlap · median age 18.8
Compare Ethiopia with other countries
Side-by-side pages put two pyramids on the same percentage scale, with a full indicator table and the projected change to 2050.
To calculate school-age, working-age, or older groups with other boundaries, use the age-group calculator for Ethiopia.
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Charts and tables may be reused with attribution. Please link to this page and credit the United Nations as the data source.
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APA
World Population Pyramid. (2026, October 19). Ethiopia Population Pyramid 2026. https://worldpopulationpyramid.com/countries/ethiopia/
MLA
“Ethiopia Population Pyramid 2026.” World Population Pyramid, 19 Oct. 2026, worldpopulationpyramid.com/countries/ethiopia/.
Chicago
World Population Pyramid. “Ethiopia Population Pyramid 2026.” Last modified October 19, 2026. https://worldpopulationpyramid.com/countries/ethiopia/.
Underlying data: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2024). World Population Prospects 2024.
Frequently asked questions
What is the population of Ethiopia in 2026?
Under the UN World Population Prospects 2024 medium scenario, Ethiopia's population in 2026 is projected at 138,902,185.
What is the median age in Ethiopia?
The projected median age in Ethiopia in 2026 is 19.3 years: half the population is younger and half is older.
What is the fertility rate in Ethiopia?
The projected total fertility rate in 2026 is 3.72 births per woman, above the replacement level of about 2.1 in low-mortality populations.
Is Ethiopia's population projected to grow?
Between 2026 and 2050, the UN medium scenario indicates the population will grow by about 62%, from 138.9M to 225M.
What share of Ethiopia is aged 65 or older?
In 2026, 3.4% of the projected population is aged 65 or older. By 2050, the medium scenario places the share at 5.4%.
How many babies are born in Ethiopia each year?
The UN medium scenario projects 4,213,081 births and 795,185 deaths in 2026, about one birth every 7.5 seconds. Births exceed deaths by 3,417,896.
What is life expectancy in Ethiopia for men and women?
Life expectancy at birth in 2026 is projected at 71.6 years for women and 64.9 years for men, a gap of 6.7 years in favour of women.
Does Ethiopia have more immigrants or emigrants?
Ethiopia is projected to gain about 27,298 more people through migration than it loses in 2026. Between 2000 and 2023 the UN estimates cumulative net migration of +562,134.
What is the sex ratio in Ethiopia?
The projected 2026 population sex ratio is 100.4 males per 100 females. This all-age ratio is different from the sex ratio at birth and can vary substantially by age.
Sources and notes
- United Nations, DESA, Population Division: World Population Prospects 2024, medium scenario.
- Population values are mid-year figures. Source values published in thousands are converted to people; displayed figures may imply more precision than is appropriate for planning.
- Historical values through 2023 are estimates. Values from 2024 onward are projections.
- Calculations follow the site methodology.