Botswana population pyramid 2026
2,603,388 people in 2026 (projected). Botswana’s pyramid has a near-vertical section at ages 15–34, the mark of an early fertility decline and of the HIV epidemic that struck in the 1990s.
- 2026 population
- 2.6Mrank 146 of 237
- Median age
- 23.7 yearsoldest rank 177
- Fertility rate
- 2.63births per woman · above replacement
- Structure
- Transitional4.1% age 65+
Botswana population pyramid
2026 · Share of total by five-year age group and sex
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The UN series provides historical estimates through 2023. Figures from 2024 onward—including 2026—are medium-scenario projections, not counts or predictions guaranteed to occur.
Botswana age distribution in 2026
Children under 15 account for 31.8% of the population, while 4.1% are aged 65 or older. The remaining 64.1% are in the conventional working-age range of 15–64. On these shares, the site classifies Botswana’s age structure as transitional; the guide to population pyramid types explains what that shape implies.
The total age dependency ratio is 56.0: about 56 people under 15 or 65+ for every 100 people aged 15–64 (49.6 children and 6.4 older people). This is an age-balance indicator, not a literal count of economic dependants per worker.
What shapes Botswana’s population pyramid
An early fertility decline
Botswana’s birth rate began to fall sooner than in most of sub-Saharan Africa. Women had on average about 6.3 children in 1980, 4.5 by 1990 and 3.3 by 2000, a decline that coincided with rapid gains in schooling and incomes in the decades after independence in 1966. By 2000 the base of the pyramid had stopped widening: the 0–4, 5–9 and 10–14 bands were almost the same size, with the oldest of the three slightly the largest. That is an early stage of the shift described in the demographic transition model.
The HIV years
At the same time, Botswana was hit by a very severe HIV epidemic. Life expectancy, which had reached about 60 years by 1990, was still only about 59 in 2010, two decades without progress. Deaths among young adults, and fewer births during the worst years, are likely part of the reason the cohorts born in the late 1990s and early 2000s did not grow. The free national antiretroviral treatment programme launched in 2002 is widely credited with the recovery that followed: life expectancy rose to about 69 by 2023.
In 2026 the result is an unusual outline for a young country. The bands from 15–19 to 30–34 are almost the same width, about 240,000–250,000 people each, and 30–34 (born about 1992–96) even stands out as a small bulge. Above 35 the pyramid narrows sharply, reflecting both the smaller cohorts born before 1990 and the heavy adult deaths of the epidemic years. At the base, births have risen again as the larger 1990s cohorts reach parenthood, so 0–4 is the widest band. The structure is closest to Eswatini, another southern African country with a similar epidemic history, and to Honduras and Guatemala.
Still growing
With about four births for every death, the population grows by about 1.6% a year. The medium scenario projects about 3.4 million people in 2050 and a peak near 3.9 million around 2088. Because the large working-age group is growing faster than the number of children, Botswana’s dependency ratio is set to fall for decades, with people aged 15–64 rising to almost 69% of the population by 2050.
What to notice across the years
Distinctive cohorts and turning points
Comparing each five-year band with its neighbours picks out the cohorts that break a smooth slope. These irregularities usually record past surges or deficits in births, or migration concentrated at particular ages; the pattern alone does not identify which. The guide to baby booms and echo cohorts explains how to date and interpret them.
| Age band in 2026 | Born about | Feature | Versus neighbouring bands |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–34 | 1992–1996 | Bulge (larger cohort) | +13% |
Births outnumber deaths in 2026; the medium scenario projects deaths to exceed births from 2090. People aged 65 and older are projected to outnumber children under 15 by 2090.
Births, deaths, and migration
A pyramid changes in only three ways: births add to the base, deaths remove people at every age, and migration adds or removes people mainly in young adulthood. In 2026, Botswana is projected to record 60,884 births (about 167 births a day) and 14,981 deaths, a natural increase of 45,903. Net migration adds −4,169 people, ranking #171 in the net migration rate ranking.
Between 2000 and 2023 the UN estimates 1,341,411 births, 450,905 deaths, and cumulative net migration of −49,513. Over that period the balance of births and deaths moved the total more than migration did. See how migration shapes a pyramid and birth rate versus fertility rate. The medium scenario assumes net migration of −64,159 between 2026 and 2050.
Annual values 1950–2100; dashed lines after 2023 are the UN medium projection. The trend table below lists the values by decade.
Life expectancy and mortality
- Life expectancy, women
- 72.2 years48.0 in 1950
- Life expectancy, men
- 67.0 years44.2 in 1950
- Further years at 65
- 14.9 yearsboth sexes
- Infant mortality
- 26.5per 1,000 births · 125 in 1950
- Under-five mortality
- 35.2per 1,000 births
- Mother’s mean age at birth
- 28.6 yearssex ratio at birth 103.2
Women in Botswana are projected to live 5.2 years longer than men, which is why the female side of the pyramid widens relative to the other at older ages (see the life expectancy gap ranking). Infant mortality has fallen from 125 to 26.5 deaths per 1,000 live births since 1950, ranking #49 of 237 in the infant mortality ranking (highest first). A mean age at childbearing of 28.6 years sets the spacing between generations, and so how far apart echo cohorts sit in the pyramid.
Median age, fertility rate, and global ranks for Botswana
The median age of 23.7 years splits the population into two equal halves. A total fertility rate of 2.63 births per woman is above the replacement level of roughly 2.1, and life expectancy at birth is 69.6 years.
These ranks compare all 237 countries and areas in this dataset using the same 2026 UN medium projection. Ranks use the stored source precision, so displayed rounding can make adjacent values look identical; small differences should not be overinterpreted.
| Indicator | 2026 value | Global rank | Ranking direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Population | 2,603,388 | #146 | Largest first |
| Median age | 23.7 years | #177 | Oldest first |
| Fertility rate | 2.63 | #67 | Highest first |
| Annual growth | +1.6% | #64 | Fastest first |
| Life expectancy | 69.6 years | #179 | Highest first |
| Population aged 65+ | 4.1% | #185 | Highest share first |
Largest age groups in Botswana
The five largest cohorts identify where the 2026 population is concentrated. They can reflect past birth patterns, survival, and migration; the chart alone does not establish which cause dominates.
| Rank | Age group | Population | Share of total | Male / female |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0–4 | 297,862 | 11.4% | 150.7K / 147.2K |
| 2 | 5–9 | 277,621 | 10.7% | 139.5K / 138.1K |
| 3 | 10–14 | 251,709 | 9.7% | 126.6K / 125.1K |
| 4 | 30–34 | 247,042 | 9.5% | 123.5K / 123.5K |
| 5 | 20–24 | 245,024 | 9.4% | 122.5K / 122.5K |
Sex ratio and the balance by age
In the 2026 projection, Botswana has 1,296,586 males and 1,306,802 females. That is 99.2 males per 100 females, ranking #93 when the dataset is ordered from the highest male-to-female ratio to the lowest.
Males account for 49.8% of the population and females for 50.2%. There are 10,216 more females than males overall. Among people aged 65 and older, the ratio is 79.6 males per 100 females.
The overall balance can conceal large differences by age; how sex ratios change with age explains the usual pattern. The ratio reflects the male/female categories in the UN source and is not a measure of gender identity. Compare all profiles in the sex-ratio ranking.
At birth, 103.2 boys are projected to be born for every 100 girls in 2026, slightly below the typical value of about 105 (compare the sex ratio at birth ranking). The ratio at birth sets the balance at the base of the pyramid; how it changes with age then depends on survival and migration.
How Botswana has changed since 1950
The population has increased from 413,698 in 1950 to 2,603,388 in 2026, a change of 529%. Over the same span, median age moved from 17.9 to 23.7 years.
The under-15 share changed from 41.4% to 31.8%, while the share aged 65 and older changed from 4.3% to 4.1%. These shifts show why total population growth and age-structure change need to be read separately.
How the population could change by 2050
Under the UN medium scenario, Botswana’s population is projected to grow by about 32%, reaching 3,437,430 in 2050. The median age changes from 23.7 to 30.3 years.
The 65+ share is projected to rise by 3.6 percentage points to 7.7%. At the same time, the under-15 share is projected at 23.5%. How UN projections work explains the assumptions behind these figures.
The annual UN series reaches its highest projected population of 3,885,442 in 2088. That turning point depends on the medium scenario and may move in later revisions. Compare timing across countries in the population peak ranking.
Population trend: 1950–2100
Mid-year population for every year. Estimates through 2023; dashed line shows the UN medium projection.
| Year | Population | Median age | Fertility | Life exp. | Births | Deaths | Net migration | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1950 | 413,698 | 17.9 | 6.43 | 46.2 | 18,806 | 7,996 | −1,081 | +2.4% |
| 1960 | 516,165 | 16.7 | 6.60 | 51.2 | 24,332 | 8,471 | −4,331 | +2.2% |
| 1970 | 590,334 | 14.4 | 6.55 | 56.4 | 26,984 | 7,547 | −16,054 | +0.6% |
| 1980 | 937,485 | 15.8 | 6.29 | 62.5 | 41,859 | 7,926 | −10,849 | +2.5% |
| 1990 | 1,305,696 | 16.1 | 4.51 | 60.1 | 43,901 | 10,887 | +2,580 | +2.7% |
| 2000 | 1,677,382 | 18.7 | 3.29 | 52.3 | 46,859 | 21,010 | +9,798 | +2.1% |
| 2010 | 2,033,110 | 21.5 | 3.13 | 59.1 | 57,668 | 19,568 | +5,151 | +2.1% |
| 2020 | 2,365,894 | 22.3 | 2.86 | 67.6 | 60,407 | 14,795 | −11,330 | +1.4% |
| 2023 | 2,480,244 | 22.9 | 2.73 | 69.2 | 61,294 | 14,197 | −6,487 | +1.6% |
| 2024* | 2,521,139 | 23.2 | 2.70 | 69.3 | 61,418 | 14,465 | −5,778 | +1.6% |
| 2026* | 2,603,388 | 23.7 | 2.63 | 69.6 | 60,884 | 14,981 | −4,169 | +1.6% |
| 2030* | 2,765,918 | 24.9 | 2.49 | 70.1 | 59,019 | 16,151 | −2,832 | +1.4% |
| 2040* | 3,126,640 | 27.6 | 2.23 | 71.3 | 55,336 | 19,988 | −2,636 | +1.1% |
| 2050* | 3,437,430 | 30.3 | 2.08 | 72.6 | 55,367 | 25,255 | −1,929 | +0.8% |
| 2060* | 3,682,968 | 33.4 | 1.96 | 73.9 | 52,799 | 31,451 | −1,390 | +0.5% |
| 2070* | 3,823,499 | 36.0 | 1.89 | 75.2 | 49,180 | 38,019 | −3,740 | +0.2% |
| 2080* | 3,877,213 | 37.9 | 1.84 | 76.5 | 47,067 | 42,898 | −2,417 | +0.0% |
| 2090* | 3,883,332 | 39.5 | 1.80 | 77.8 | 44,575 | 44,677 | −2,685 | -0.1% |
| 2100* | 3,836,825 | 41.3 | 1.78 | 79.1 | 41,374 | 46,033 | −1,482 | -0.2% |
* 2024 onward is the UN medium projection. Fertility is births per woman; life expectancy is years at birth; births, deaths, and net migration are counts for that calendar year.
Download every year, 1950–2100 (CSV)
2026 population by age and sex
The table provides the counts behind the chart. Age groups are five-year bands, with everyone aged 100 or older combined.
| Age group | Male | Female | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–4 | 150,701 | 147,161 | 297,862 | 11.4% |
| 5–9 | 139,485 | 138,136 | 277,621 | 10.7% |
| 10–14 | 126,642 | 125,067 | 251,709 | 9.7% |
| 15–19 | 121,715 | 120,618 | 242,333 | 9.3% |
| 20–24 | 122,500 | 122,524 | 245,024 | 9.4% |
| 25–29 | 120,085 | 120,832 | 240,917 | 9.3% |
| 30–34 | 123,528 | 123,514 | 247,042 | 9.5% |
| 35–39 | 98,567 | 96,664 | 195,231 | 7.5% |
| 40–44 | 75,743 | 73,611 | 149,354 | 5.7% |
| 45–49 | 57,758 | 58,191 | 115,949 | 4.5% |
| 50–54 | 46,645 | 49,057 | 95,702 | 3.7% |
| 55–59 | 37,511 | 40,920 | 78,431 | 3.0% |
| 60–64 | 28,288 | 30,950 | 59,238 | 2.3% |
| 65–69 | 19,692 | 21,441 | 41,133 | 1.6% |
| 70–74 | 13,983 | 15,725 | 29,708 | 1.1% |
| 75–79 | 8,119 | 11,447 | 19,566 | 0.8% |
| 80–84 | 3,683 | 6,261 | 9,944 | 0.4% |
| 85–89 | 1,485 | 3,206 | 4,691 | 0.2% |
| 90–94 | 395 | 1,186 | 1,581 | 0.1% |
| 95–99 | 57 | 254 | 311 | 0.0% |
| 100+ | 4 | 37 | 41 | 0.0% |
Countries with the most similar age structure
These profiles have the 2026 age distributions closest to Botswana’s, measured by the total difference in the share of the population in each five-year band. Similar shapes can arise from very different histories, so the match is a starting point for comparison, not an explanation.
- Eswatini97% overlap · median age 22.7
- Honduras97% overlap · median age 24.6
- Guatemala96% overlap · median age 23.8
- Papua New Guinea96% overlap · median age 23.0
- Haiti96% overlap · median age 24.3
- Laos95% overlap · median age 25.3
To calculate school-age, working-age, or older groups with other boundaries, use the age-group calculator for Botswana.
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APA
World Population Pyramid. (2026, October 19). Botswana Population Pyramid 2026. https://worldpopulationpyramid.com/countries/botswana/
MLA
“Botswana Population Pyramid 2026.” World Population Pyramid, 19 Oct. 2026, worldpopulationpyramid.com/countries/botswana/.
Chicago
World Population Pyramid. “Botswana Population Pyramid 2026.” Last modified October 19, 2026. https://worldpopulationpyramid.com/countries/botswana/.
Underlying data: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2024). World Population Prospects 2024.
Frequently asked questions
What is the population of Botswana in 2026?
Under the UN World Population Prospects 2024 medium scenario, Botswana's population in 2026 is projected at 2,603,388.
What is the median age in Botswana?
The projected median age in Botswana in 2026 is 23.7 years: half the population is younger and half is older.
What is the fertility rate in Botswana?
The projected total fertility rate in 2026 is 2.63 births per woman, above the replacement level of about 2.1 in low-mortality populations.
Is Botswana's population projected to grow?
Between 2026 and 2050, the UN medium scenario indicates the population will grow by about 32%, from 2.6M to 3.4M.
What share of Botswana is aged 65 or older?
In 2026, 4.1% of the projected population is aged 65 or older. By 2050, the medium scenario places the share at 7.7%.
How many babies are born in Botswana each year?
The UN medium scenario projects 60,884 births and 14,981 deaths in 2026, about 167 births a day. Births exceed deaths by 45,903.
What is life expectancy in Botswana for men and women?
Life expectancy at birth in 2026 is projected at 72.2 years for women and 67.0 years for men, a gap of 5.2 years in favour of women.
Does Botswana have more immigrants or emigrants?
Botswana is projected to lose about 4,169 more people through emigration than it gains in 2026. Between 2000 and 2023 the UN estimates cumulative net migration of −49,513.
What is the sex ratio in Botswana?
The projected 2026 population sex ratio is 99.2 males per 100 females. This all-age ratio is different from the sex ratio at birth and can vary substantially by age.
Sources and notes
- United Nations, DESA, Population Division: World Population Prospects 2024, medium scenario.
- Population values are mid-year figures. Source values published in thousands are converted to people; displayed figures may imply more precision than is appropriate for planning.
- Historical values through 2023 are estimates. Values from 2024 onward are projections.
- Calculations follow the site methodology.