Guatemala population pyramid 2026
Latin America and the Caribbean · Central America
18,967,978 people in 2026 (projected). Guatemala’s pyramid has only just stopped widening at the base: fertility halved from 4.6 in 2000 to 2.3 in 2023, and 10–14-year-olds now outnumber under-5s.
- 2026 population
- 19Mrank 69 of 237
- Median age
- 23.8 yearsoldest rank 175
- Fertility rate
- 2.23births per woman · above replacement
- Structure
- Transitional5.1% age 65+
Guatemala population pyramid
2026 · Share of total by five-year age group and sex
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The UN series provides historical estimates through 2023. Figures from 2024 onward—including 2026—are medium-scenario projections, not counts or predictions guaranteed to occur.
Guatemala age distribution in 2026
Children under 15 account for 30.5% of the population, while 5.1% are aged 65 or older. The remaining 64.4% are in the conventional working-age range of 15–64. On these shares, the site classifies Guatemala’s age structure as transitional; the guide to population pyramid types explains what that shape implies.
The total age dependency ratio is 55.2: about 55 people under 15 or 65+ for every 100 people aged 15–64 (47.3 children and 7.9 older people). This is an age-balance indicator, not a literal count of economic dependants per worker.
What shapes Guatemala’s population pyramid
A late and rapid fall in fertility
For most of the twentieth century Guatemala had one of the highest fertility rates in Latin America, and its pyramid in 2000 still looked much as it had in 1950: under-15s made up about 44% of the population in both years, and the median age was below 17. Fertility had begun to fall, but slowly, from about 7 children per woman in 1960 to 4.6 in 2000. The decline then accelerated sharply, to 3.4 by 2010 and 2.3 by 2023, close to replacement level.
The 2026 pyramid shows the turning point. The widest band is 10–14, born about 2012–16, and the bands below it are slightly smaller, so the bottom of the chart has stopped spreading outwards. Above age 30 the steep slope of the older, high-fertility era remains. This combination of a straightening base and a triangular upper half is typical of a country part-way through the transition, and Guatemala’s structure is closest to those of Haiti and neighbouring Honduras.
Emigration and the missing middle-aged men
Guatemala has been a country of net emigration for decades, overwhelmingly towards the United States. The UN estimates a net outflow of about 1.1 million between 1950 and 1999 and roughly 1 million more between 2000 and 2023. The effect is visible in the sex ratio. Among young adults today the sexes are close to balanced, but from the late forties men become scarcer, with 89 men per 100 women at 50–54 and 80 at 60–64, lower than at 70–74. The cohorts concerned, born roughly 1962–76, were young adults in the 1980s and 1990s, a period of heavy emigration that also overlapped with the later phase of the civil war, which ended in 1996. A shortage of men at these ages was already visible in 2000, when women outnumbered men at ages 25–54. The chart cannot separate the two causes, but the pattern fits a generation in which many men left.
Momentum before a late peak
Births still outnumber deaths by about four to one, because the large cohorts born around 2000–16 are now entering their childbearing years. Under the UN medium scenario the population grows from about 19 million in 2026 to 24.7 million in 2050 and peaks at about 27.2 million in 2077, with deaths first exceeding births in 2079. In the 2050 pyramid the cohorts born in the 2010s form a broad band at ages 30–39, and the median age reaches about 33, up from 24 today.
What to notice across the years
Distinctive cohorts and turning points
No five-year band under age 80 is more than 10% larger or smaller than both of its neighbours, so Guatemala’s 2026 pyramid has a comparatively smooth profile without sharp bulges or notches.
Births outnumber deaths in 2026; the medium scenario projects deaths to exceed births from 2079. People aged 65 and older are projected to outnumber children under 15 by 2070.
Births, deaths, and migration
A pyramid changes in only three ways: births add to the base, deaths remove people at every age, and migration adds or removes people mainly in young adulthood. In 2026, Guatemala is projected to record 380,396 births (about 1,041 births a day) and 93,484 deaths, a natural increase of 286,912. Net migration adds −7,432 people, ranking #126 in the net migration rate ranking.
Between 2000 and 2023 the UN estimates 9,664,148 births, 1,977,099 deaths, and cumulative net migration of −985,600. Over that period the balance of births and deaths moved the total more than migration did. See how migration shapes a pyramid and birth rate versus fertility rate. The medium scenario assumes net migration of −181,735 between 2026 and 2050.
Annual values 1950–2100; dashed lines after 2023 are the UN medium projection. The trend table below lists the values by decade.
Life expectancy and mortality
- Life expectancy, women
- 75.4 years37.9 in 1950
- Life expectancy, men
- 70.7 years37.7 in 1950
- Further years at 65
- 16.5 yearsboth sexes
- Infant mortality
- 16.4per 1,000 births · 161 in 1950
- Under-five mortality
- 20.2per 1,000 births
- Mother’s mean age at birth
- 27.2 yearssex ratio at birth 104.0
Women in Guatemala are projected to live 4.7 years longer than men, which is why the female side of the pyramid widens relative to the other at older ages (see the life expectancy gap ranking). Infant mortality has fallen from 161 to 16.4 deaths per 1,000 live births since 1950, ranking #73 of 237 in the infant mortality ranking (highest first). A mean age at childbearing of 27.2 years sets the spacing between generations, and so how far apart echo cohorts sit in the pyramid.
Median age, fertility rate, and global ranks for Guatemala
The median age of 23.8 years splits the population into two equal halves. A total fertility rate of 2.23 births per woman is above the replacement level of roughly 2.1, and life expectancy at birth is 73.0 years.
These ranks compare all 237 countries and areas in this dataset using the same 2026 UN medium projection. Ranks use the stored source precision, so displayed rounding can make adjacent values look identical; small differences should not be overinterpreted.
| Indicator | 2026 value | Global rank | Ranking direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Population | 18,967,978 | #69 | Largest first |
| Median age | 23.8 years | #175 | Oldest first |
| Fertility rate | 2.23 | #89 | Highest first |
| Annual growth | +1.5% | #70 | Fastest first |
| Life expectancy | 73.0 years | #149 | Highest first |
| Population aged 65+ | 5.1% | #167 | Highest share first |
Largest age groups in Guatemala
The five largest cohorts identify where the 2026 population is concentrated. They can reflect past birth patterns, survival, and migration; the chart alone does not establish which cause dominates.
| Rank | Age group | Population | Share of total | Male / female |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10–14 | 1,986,749 | 10.5% | 1M / 979.5K |
| 2 | 5–9 | 1,941,333 | 10.2% | 985.9K / 955.5K |
| 3 | 15–19 | 1,902,632 | 10.0% | 962.5K / 940.2K |
| 4 | 20–24 | 1,868,605 | 9.9% | 942.2K / 926.4K |
| 5 | 0–4 | 1,852,933 | 9.8% | 942.4K / 910.5K |
Sex ratio and the balance by age
In the 2026 projection, Guatemala has 9,408,450 males and 9,559,528 females. That is 98.4 males per 100 females, ranking #118 when the dataset is ordered from the highest male-to-female ratio to the lowest.
Males account for 49.6% of the population and females for 50.4%. There are 151,078 more females than males overall. Among people aged 65 and older, the ratio is 80.3 males per 100 females.
The overall balance can conceal large differences by age; how sex ratios change with age explains the usual pattern. The ratio reflects the male/female categories in the UN source and is not a measure of gender identity. Compare all profiles in the sex-ratio ranking.
At birth, 104.0 boys are projected to be born for every 100 girls in 2026, close to the biological norm of about 105 (compare the sex ratio at birth ranking). The ratio at birth sets the balance at the base of the pyramid; how it changes with age then depends on survival and migration.
How Guatemala has changed since 1950
The population has increased from 3,097,198 in 1950 to 18,967,978 in 2026, a change of 512%. Over the same span, median age moved from 16.8 to 23.8 years.
The under-15 share changed from 43.8% to 30.5%, while the share aged 65 and older changed from 2.3% to 5.1%. These shifts show why total population growth and age-structure change need to be read separately.
How the population could change by 2050
Under the UN medium scenario, Guatemala’s population is projected to grow by about 30%, reaching 24,670,857 in 2050. The median age changes from 23.8 to 33.0 years.
The 65+ share is projected to rise by 4.5 percentage points to 9.6%. At the same time, the under-15 share is projected at 21.6%. How UN projections work explains the assumptions behind these figures.
The annual UN series reaches its highest projected population of 27,154,260 in 2077. That turning point depends on the medium scenario and may move in later revisions. Compare timing across countries in the population peak ranking.
Population trend: 1950–2100
Mid-year population for every year. Estimates through 2023; dashed line shows the UN medium projection.
| Year | Population | Median age | Fertility | Life exp. | Births | Deaths | Net migration | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1950 | 3,097,198 | 16.8 | 6.80 | 37.8 | 157,067 | 80,196 | +989 | +2.5% |
| 1960 | 4,063,654 | 15.6 | 7.00 | 45.8 | 197,264 | 76,538 | −186 | +3.0% |
| 1970 | 5,396,966 | 15.7 | 6.60 | 48.5 | 242,197 | 86,250 | −14,755 | +2.6% |
| 1980 | 6,900,212 | 16.0 | 6.17 | 55.3 | 300,936 | 82,481 | −43,144 | +2.5% |
| 1990 | 9,024,773 | 16.0 | 5.48 | 61.8 | 359,438 | 79,125 | −27,735 | +2.8% |
| 2000 | 11,697,592 | 16.6 | 4.58 | 67.1 | 406,001 | 73,111 | −65,197 | +2.3% |
| 2010 | 14,500,112 | 18.6 | 3.38 | 69.9 | 403,407 | 78,603 | −36,076 | +2.0% |
| 2020 | 17,357,325 | 21.6 | 2.47 | 70.0 | 382,615 | 101,280 | −23,927 | +1.5% |
| 2023 | 18,124,838 | 22.6 | 2.31 | 72.6 | 377,167 | 87,523 | −8,940 | +1.6% |
| 2024* | 18,406,359 | 23.0 | 2.29 | 72.7 | 379,512 | 89,455 | −7,725 | +1.5% |
| 2026* | 18,967,978 | 23.8 | 2.23 | 73.0 | 380,396 | 93,484 | −7,432 | +1.5% |
| 2030* | 20,067,253 | 25.4 | 2.13 | 73.6 | 380,934 | 102,235 | −7,484 | +1.4% |
| 2040* | 22,626,870 | 29.1 | 1.97 | 75.1 | 368,296 | 128,094 | −7,307 | +1.0% |
| 2050* | 24,670,857 | 33.0 | 1.88 | 76.4 | 342,959 | 158,582 | −7,536 | +0.7% |
| 2060* | 26,157,020 | 36.4 | 1.82 | 77.8 | 323,989 | 198,644 | −7,970 | +0.5% |
| 2070* | 26,991,954 | 39.3 | 1.77 | 79.2 | 302,832 | 248,075 | −7,977 | +0.2% |
| 2080* | 27,127,637 | 41.7 | 1.74 | 80.6 | 281,992 | 293,249 | −6,645 | -0.1% |
| 2090* | 26,695,105 | 43.6 | 1.72 | 81.8 | 263,164 | 320,805 | −6,509 | -0.2% |
| 2100* | 25,912,091 | 44.9 | 1.70 | 83.1 | 245,450 | 328,388 | −6,566 | -0.3% |
* 2024 onward is the UN medium projection. Fertility is births per woman; life expectancy is years at birth; births, deaths, and net migration are counts for that calendar year.
Download every year, 1950–2100 (CSV)
2026 population by age and sex
The table provides the counts behind the chart. Age groups are five-year bands, with everyone aged 100 or older combined.
| Age group | Male | Female | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–4 | 942,415 | 910,518 | 1,852,933 | 9.8% |
| 5–9 | 985,876 | 955,457 | 1,941,333 | 10.2% |
| 10–14 | 1,007,229 | 979,520 | 1,986,749 | 10.5% |
| 15–19 | 962,481 | 940,151 | 1,902,632 | 10.0% |
| 20–24 | 942,166 | 926,439 | 1,868,605 | 9.9% |
| 25–29 | 889,149 | 880,237 | 1,769,386 | 9.3% |
| 30–34 | 797,646 | 796,001 | 1,593,647 | 8.4% |
| 35–39 | 682,962 | 687,098 | 1,370,060 | 7.2% |
| 40–44 | 555,367 | 569,243 | 1,124,610 | 5.9% |
| 45–49 | 436,012 | 464,974 | 900,986 | 4.8% |
| 50–54 | 327,904 | 368,618 | 696,522 | 3.7% |
| 55–59 | 252,159 | 298,587 | 550,746 | 2.9% |
| 60–64 | 198,343 | 248,620 | 446,963 | 2.4% |
| 65–69 | 160,959 | 201,300 | 362,259 | 1.9% |
| 70–74 | 124,507 | 149,719 | 274,226 | 1.4% |
| 75–79 | 80,147 | 99,510 | 179,657 | 0.9% |
| 80–84 | 43,123 | 54,191 | 97,314 | 0.5% |
| 85–89 | 16,041 | 21,491 | 37,532 | 0.2% |
| 90–94 | 3,559 | 6,635 | 10,194 | 0.1% |
| 95–99 | 386 | 1,146 | 1,532 | 0.0% |
| 100+ | 19 | 73 | 92 | 0.0% |
Countries with the most similar age structure
These profiles have the 2026 age distributions closest to Guatemala’s, measured by the total difference in the share of the population in each five-year band. Similar shapes can arise from very different histories, so the match is a starting point for comparison, not an explanation.
- Haiti97% overlap · median age 24.3
- Eswatini97% overlap · median age 22.7
- Honduras97% overlap · median age 24.6
- Botswana96% overlap · median age 23.7
- Laos96% overlap · median age 25.3
- Papua New Guinea96% overlap · median age 23.0
To calculate school-age, working-age, or older groups with other boundaries, use the age-group calculator for Guatemala.
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APA
World Population Pyramid. (2026, October 19). Guatemala Population Pyramid 2026. https://worldpopulationpyramid.com/countries/guatemala/
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“Guatemala Population Pyramid 2026.” World Population Pyramid, 19 Oct. 2026, worldpopulationpyramid.com/countries/guatemala/.
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World Population Pyramid. “Guatemala Population Pyramid 2026.” Last modified October 19, 2026. https://worldpopulationpyramid.com/countries/guatemala/.
Underlying data: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2024). World Population Prospects 2024.
Frequently asked questions
What is the population of Guatemala in 2026?
Under the UN World Population Prospects 2024 medium scenario, Guatemala's population in 2026 is projected at 18,967,978.
What is the median age in Guatemala?
The projected median age in Guatemala in 2026 is 23.8 years: half the population is younger and half is older.
What is the fertility rate in Guatemala?
The projected total fertility rate in 2026 is 2.23 births per woman, above the replacement level of about 2.1 in low-mortality populations.
Is Guatemala's population projected to grow?
Between 2026 and 2050, the UN medium scenario indicates the population will grow by about 30%, from 19M to 24.7M.
What share of Guatemala is aged 65 or older?
In 2026, 5.1% of the projected population is aged 65 or older. By 2050, the medium scenario places the share at 9.6%.
How many babies are born in Guatemala each year?
The UN medium scenario projects 380,396 births and 93,484 deaths in 2026, about 1,041 births a day. Births exceed deaths by 286,912.
What is life expectancy in Guatemala for men and women?
Life expectancy at birth in 2026 is projected at 75.4 years for women and 70.7 years for men, a gap of 4.7 years in favour of women.
Does Guatemala have more immigrants or emigrants?
Guatemala is projected to lose about 7,432 more people through emigration than it gains in 2026. Between 2000 and 2023 the UN estimates cumulative net migration of −985,600.
What is the sex ratio in Guatemala?
The projected 2026 population sex ratio is 98.4 males per 100 females. This all-age ratio is different from the sex ratio at birth and can vary substantially by age.
Sources and notes
- United Nations, DESA, Population Division: World Population Prospects 2024, medium scenario.
- Population values are mid-year figures. Source values published in thousands are converted to people; displayed figures may imply more precision than is appropriate for planning.
- Historical values through 2023 are estimates. Values from 2024 onward are projections.
- Calculations follow the site methodology.