Oceania · Melanesia
Papua New Guinea population pyramid 2026
10,947,848 people in 2026 (projected). Explore how Papua New Guinea’s age structure has changed since 1950 and how it could look in 2050 and 2100.
- 2026 population
- 10.9M medium projection
- Median age
- 23.0 years
- Annual growth
- +1.7%
- Structure
- Youthful 3.7% age 65+
Papua New Guinea population pyramid
2026 · Share of total by five-year age group and sex
The UN series provides historical estimates through 2023. Figures from 2024 onward—including 2026—are medium-scenario projections, not counts or predictions guaranteed to occur.
Papua New Guinea’s age structure in 2026
Children under 15 account for 32.8% of the population, while 3.7% are aged 65 or older. The remaining 63.5% are in the conventional working-age range of 15–64.
The total age dependency ratio is 57.5: about 58 people under 15 or 65+ for every 100 people aged 15–64. This is an age-balance indicator, not a literal count of economic dependants per worker.
Largest age groups in Papua New Guinea
The five largest cohorts identify where the 2026 population is concentrated. They can reflect past birth patterns, survival, and migration; the chart alone does not establish which cause dominates.
| Rank | Age group | Population | Share of total | Male / female |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0–4 | 1,238,459 | 11.3% | 640.2K / 598.2K |
| 2 | 5–9 | 1,203,835 | 11.0% | 622.6K / 581.2K |
| 3 | 10–14 | 1,148,517 | 10.5% | 597.2K / 551.3K |
| 4 | 15–19 | 1,074,346 | 9.8% | 562.5K / 511.8K |
| 5 | 20–24 | 1,000,177 | 9.1% | 525K / 475.2K |
How Papua New Guinea has changed since 1950
The population has increased from 1,543,429 in 1950 to 10,947,848 in 2026, a change of 609%. Over the same span, median age moved from 17.3 to 23.0 years.
The under-15 share changed from 42.0% to 32.8%, while the share aged 65 and older changed from 1.1% to 3.7%. These shifts show why total population growth and age-structure change need to be read separately.
How the population could change by 2050
Under the UN medium scenario, Papua New Guinea’s population is projected to grow by about 36%, reaching 14,906,590 in 2050. The median age changes from 23.0 to 28.5 years.
The 65+ share is projected to rise by 3.7 percentage points to 7.4%. At the same time, the under-15 share is projected at 26.1%.
Among the decade points in this dataset, the highest projected population is 18,640,541 in 2100. This does not establish an exact peak year; annual data and projection uncertainty should be used for formal analysis.
Population trend: 1950–2100
| Year | Population | Median age | Fertility | Life expectancy | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1950 | 1,543,429 | 17.3 | 5.71 | 39.4 | +2.1% |
| 1960 | 1,995,110 | 17.4 | 6.02 | 45.8 | +2.7% |
| 1970 | 2,505,628 | 16.2 | 6.25 | 52.1 | +2.4% |
| 1980 | 3,131,512 | 16.9 | 5.70 | 57.4 | +2.1% |
| 1990 | 3,896,480 | 17.6 | 5.18 | 59.8 | +2.9% |
| 2000 | 5,537,064 | 18.8 | 4.52 | 61.6 | +3.4% |
| 2010 | 7,633,523 | 20.0 | 3.88 | 63.1 | +3.0% |
| 2020 | 9,815,746 | 21.7 | 3.27 | 65.1 | +2.0% |
| 2023 | 10,389,635 | 22.3 | 3.10 | 66.1 | +1.8% |
| 2024* | 10,576,502 | 22.6 | 3.07 | 66.3 | +1.8% |
| 2026* | 10,947,848 | 23.0 | 2.99 | 66.5 | +1.7% |
| 2030* | 11,671,424 | 23.9 | 2.84 | 67.0 | +1.5% |
| 2040* | 13,376,160 | 26.3 | 2.56 | 68.2 | +1.2% |
| 2050* | 14,906,590 | 28.5 | 2.36 | 69.2 | +0.9% |
| 2060* | 16,184,460 | 30.6 | 2.21 | 70.3 | +0.7% |
| 2070* | 17,185,172 | 32.4 | 2.10 | 71.3 | +0.5% |
| 2080* | 17,911,988 | 34.0 | 2.01 | 72.4 | +0.4% |
| 2090* | 18,405,692 | 35.6 | 1.94 | 73.6 | +0.2% |
| 2100* | 18,640,541 | 37.2 | 1.88 | 74.8 | +0.1% |
* 2024 onward is the UN medium projection. Fertility is births per woman; life expectancy is years at birth.
2026 population by age and sex
The table provides the counts behind the chart. Age groups are five-year bands, with everyone aged 100 or older combined.
| Age group | Male | Female | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–4 | 640,222 | 598,237 | 1,238,459 | 11.3% |
| 5–9 | 622,595 | 581,240 | 1,203,835 | 11.0% |
| 10–14 | 597,174 | 551,343 | 1,148,517 | 10.5% |
| 15–19 | 562,524 | 511,822 | 1,074,346 | 9.8% |
| 20–24 | 524,953 | 475,224 | 1,000,177 | 9.1% |
| 25–29 | 479,202 | 440,269 | 919,471 | 8.4% |
| 30–34 | 434,500 | 409,527 | 844,027 | 7.7% |
| 35–39 | 386,130 | 380,798 | 766,928 | 7.0% |
| 40–44 | 324,756 | 334,189 | 658,945 | 6.0% |
| 45–49 | 275,645 | 285,269 | 560,914 | 5.1% |
| 50–54 | 231,588 | 236,576 | 468,164 | 4.3% |
| 55–59 | 187,154 | 185,151 | 372,305 | 3.4% |
| 60–64 | 147,124 | 137,504 | 284,628 | 2.6% |
| 65–69 | 100,451 | 91,809 | 192,260 | 1.8% |
| 70–74 | 58,056 | 56,172 | 114,228 | 1.0% |
| 75–79 | 30,113 | 31,094 | 61,207 | 0.6% |
| 80–84 | 13,032 | 14,594 | 27,626 | 0.3% |
| 85–89 | 4,165 | 5,186 | 9,351 | 0.1% |
| 90–94 | 907 | 1,203 | 2,110 | 0.0% |
| 95–99 | 137 | 178 | 315 | 0.0% |
| 100+ | 15 | 19 | 34 | 0.0% |
How to use this country profile
For a classroom comparison, switch between 1950, 2000, 2026, and 2050 and describe the base, working-age middle, and older top before interpreting them. For planning or research, use the counts rather than estimating values from bar widths, cite the WPP 2024 medium scenario, and retain the projection label.
To compare age structure rather than population size, open the side-by-side comparison tool. To calculate school-age, working-age, or older groups with different boundaries, use the custom age-group calculator.
Frequently asked questions
What is the population of Papua New Guinea in 2026?
Under the UN World Population Prospects 2024 medium scenario, Papua New Guinea's population in 2026 is projected at 10,947,848.
What is the median age in Papua New Guinea?
The projected median age in Papua New Guinea in 2026 is 23.0 years.
Is Papua New Guinea's population projected to grow?
Between 2026 and 2050, the UN medium scenario indicates the population will grow by about 36%, from 10.9M to 14.9M.
What share of Papua New Guinea is aged 65 or older?
In 2026, 3.7% of the projected population is aged 65 or older. By 2050, the medium scenario places the share at 7.4%.
Sources and notes
- United Nations, DESA, Population Division: World Population Prospects 2024, medium scenario.
- Population values are mid-year figures. Source values published in thousands are converted to people; displayed figures may imply more precision than is appropriate for planning.
- Historical values through 2023 are estimates. Values from 2024 onward are projections.