Papua New Guinea population pyramid 2026
10,947,848 people in 2026 (projected). Papua New Guinea’s pyramid leans male: boys and young men outnumber their female peers by up to 10%, and men still outnumber women at ages 55–74.
- 2026 population
- 10.9Mrank 89 of 237
- Median age
- 23.0 yearsoldest rank 179
- Fertility rate
- 2.99births per woman · above replacement
- Structure
- Youthful3.7% age 65+
Papua New Guinea population pyramid
2026 · Share of total by five-year age group and sex
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The UN series provides historical estimates through 2023. Figures from 2024 onward—including 2026—are medium-scenario projections, not counts or predictions guaranteed to occur.
Papua New Guinea age distribution in 2026
Children under 15 account for 32.8% of the population, while 3.7% are aged 65 or older. The remaining 63.5% are in the conventional working-age range of 15–64. On these shares, the site classifies Papua New Guinea’s age structure as youthful; the guide to expansive population pyramids explains what that shape implies.
The total age dependency ratio is 57.5: about 58 people under 15 or 65+ for every 100 people aged 15–64 (51.7 children and 5.9 older people). This is an age-balance indicator, not a literal count of economic dependants per worker.
What shapes Papua New Guinea’s population pyramid
More men than women, at both ends
Most pyramids tilt towards women at older ages. Papua New Guinea’s tilts the other way. With about 105.5 males per 100 females overall it sits towards the male end of the sex ratio ranking, and the surplus is old as well as young. In 1950 men outnumbered women in every band up to age 84, by a third or more at ages 40–54, and in 1975 men aged 65–74 outnumbered women of the same ages by more than half. Patterns of this kind are usually associated with high female mortality in adulthood, including deaths in childbirth, but the chart alone cannot establish the cause, and early estimates for the country rest on limited data.
Today the picture is mixed. The sex ratio at birth, about 107.6 boys per 100 girls, is above the usual level, and the young bands reflect it, with 106 to 110 males per 100 females at ages 0–34. Women slightly outnumber men at 40–54, but men are again in the majority at 55–74. Because women now outlive men by about five and a half years, this older male surplus belongs to earlier cohorts and is already reversed from age 75. The guide to sex ratios by age explains how such patterns accumulate.
A gradual transition without shocks
Fertility peaked at about 6.3 children per woman around 1970 and has fallen steadily to about 3.0 in 2026. Life expectancy rose from about 39 years in 1950 to 66 in 2023, and infant mortality fell from about 165 to 32 per 1,000 live births. Because these changes were slow and continuous, the pyramid has no notches or bulges: every band in 2026 is smaller than the one below it, though the two youngest bands now differ by only about 3%, a sign that the annual number of births is levelling off. In 2026 about 257,000 births are projected against roughly 73,000 deaths.
Uncertain counts
Census taking in Papua New Guinea is difficult, and estimates of its current population differ widely, so the fine detail of this pyramid is less certain than for most countries. The UN series records a net inflow of about 800,000 people in 2000–23, for which there is no widely documented explanation; it is best read with that uncertainty in mind, and the guide to population projections discusses how such estimates are built.
Under the medium scenario the population rises from about 10.9 million in 2026 to 14.9 million in 2050 and 18.6 million in 2100, still growing slowly at the end of the century. Haiti, Eswatini and Kiribati have the most similar age structures in 2026.
What to notice across the years
Distinctive cohorts and turning points
No five-year band under age 80 is more than 10% larger or smaller than both of its neighbours, so Papua New Guinea’s 2026 pyramid has a comparatively smooth profile without sharp bulges or notches.
In the UN medium scenario births outnumber deaths in every year through 2100. Children under 15 outnumber people aged 65 and older in every pyramid year through 2100.
Births, deaths, and migration
A pyramid changes in only three ways: births add to the base, deaths remove people at every age, and migration adds or removes people mainly in young adulthood. In 2026, Papua New Guinea is projected to record 257,492 births (about 705 births a day) and 72,657 deaths, a natural increase of 184,835. Net migration adds −534 people, ranking #97 in the net migration rate ranking.
Between 2000 and 2023 the UN estimates 5,600,602 births, 1,364,771 deaths, and cumulative net migration of +804,833. Over that period the balance of births and deaths moved the total more than migration did. See how migration shapes a pyramid and birth rate versus fertility rate. The medium scenario assumes net migration of −40,097 between 2026 and 2050.
Annual values 1950–2100; dashed lines after 2023 are the UN medium projection. The trend table below lists the values by decade.
Life expectancy and mortality
- Life expectancy, women
- 69.5 years42.2 in 1950
- Life expectancy, men
- 64.0 years37.4 in 1950
- Further years at 65
- 12.9 yearsboth sexes
- Infant mortality
- 30.8per 1,000 births · 165 in 1950
- Under-five mortality
- 38.1per 1,000 births
- Mother’s mean age at birth
- 29.2 yearssex ratio at birth 107.6
Women in Papua New Guinea are projected to live 5.5 years longer than men, which is why the female side of the pyramid widens relative to the other at older ages (see the life expectancy gap ranking). Infant mortality has fallen from 165 to 30.8 deaths per 1,000 live births since 1950, ranking #35 of 237 in the infant mortality ranking (highest first). A mean age at childbearing of 29.2 years sets the spacing between generations, and so how far apart echo cohorts sit in the pyramid.
Median age, fertility rate, and global ranks for Papua New Guinea
The median age of 23.0 years splits the population into two equal halves. A total fertility rate of 2.99 births per woman is above the replacement level of roughly 2.1, and life expectancy at birth is 66.5 years.
These ranks compare all 237 countries and areas in this dataset using the same 2026 UN medium projection. Ranks use the stored source precision, so displayed rounding can make adjacent values look identical; small differences should not be overinterpreted.
| Indicator | 2026 value | Global rank | Ranking direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Population | 10,947,848 | #89 | Largest first |
| Median age | 23.0 years | #179 | Oldest first |
| Fertility rate | 2.99 | #57 | Highest first |
| Annual growth | +1.7% | #60 | Fastest first |
| Life expectancy | 66.5 years | #206 | Highest first |
| Population aged 65+ | 3.7% | #193 | Highest share first |
Largest age groups in Papua New Guinea
The five largest cohorts identify where the 2026 population is concentrated. They can reflect past birth patterns, survival, and migration; the chart alone does not establish which cause dominates.
| Rank | Age group | Population | Share of total | Male / female |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0–4 | 1,238,459 | 11.3% | 640.2K / 598.2K |
| 2 | 5–9 | 1,203,835 | 11.0% | 622.6K / 581.2K |
| 3 | 10–14 | 1,148,517 | 10.5% | 597.2K / 551.3K |
| 4 | 15–19 | 1,074,346 | 9.8% | 562.5K / 511.8K |
| 5 | 20–24 | 1,000,177 | 9.1% | 525K / 475.2K |
Sex ratio and the balance by age
In the 2026 projection, Papua New Guinea has 5,620,442 males and 5,327,406 females. That is 105.5 males per 100 females, ranking #22 when the dataset is ordered from the highest male-to-female ratio to the lowest.
Males account for 51.3% of the population and females for 48.7%. There are 293,036 more males than females overall. Among people aged 65 and older, the ratio is 103.3 males per 100 females.
The overall balance can conceal large differences by age; how sex ratios change with age explains the usual pattern. The ratio reflects the male/female categories in the UN source and is not a measure of gender identity. Compare all profiles in the sex-ratio ranking.
At birth, 107.6 boys are projected to be born for every 100 girls in 2026, above the biological norm of about 105 (see the sex ratio at birth ranking). The ratio at birth sets the balance at the base of the pyramid; how it changes with age then depends on survival and migration.
How Papua New Guinea has changed since 1950
The population has increased from 1,543,429 in 1950 to 10,947,848 in 2026, a change of 609%. Over the same span, median age moved from 17.3 to 23.0 years.
The under-15 share changed from 42.0% to 32.8%, while the share aged 65 and older changed from 1.1% to 3.7%. These shifts show why total population growth and age-structure change need to be read separately.
How the population could change by 2050
Under the UN medium scenario, Papua New Guinea’s population is projected to grow by about 36%, reaching 14,906,590 in 2050. The median age changes from 23.0 to 28.5 years.
The 65+ share is projected to rise by 3.7 percentage points to 7.4%. At the same time, the under-15 share is projected at 26.1%. How UN projections work explains the assumptions behind these figures.
The population is still rising at the end of the UN medium projection in 2100, when it reaches 18,640,541. The page therefore does not assign a peak year beyond the available horizon.
Population trend: 1950–2100
Mid-year population for every year. Estimates through 2023; dashed line shows the UN medium projection.
| Year | Population | Median age | Fertility | Life exp. | Births | Deaths | Net migration | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1950 | 1,543,429 | 17.3 | 5.71 | 39.4 | 70,878 | 33,095 | −4,845 | +2.1% |
| 1960 | 1,995,110 | 17.4 | 6.02 | 45.8 | 90,039 | 33,713 | −2,034 | +2.7% |
| 1970 | 2,505,628 | 16.2 | 6.25 | 52.1 | 110,231 | 31,519 | −18,773 | +2.4% |
| 1980 | 3,131,512 | 16.9 | 5.70 | 57.4 | 119,454 | 29,188 | −25,638 | +2.1% |
| 1990 | 3,896,480 | 17.6 | 5.18 | 59.8 | 142,993 | 32,961 | +2,398 | +2.9% |
| 2000 | 5,537,064 | 18.8 | 4.52 | 61.6 | 190,600 | 43,107 | +41,855 | +3.4% |
| 2010 | 7,633,523 | 20.0 | 3.88 | 63.1 | 234,608 | 55,608 | +50,106 | +3.0% |
| 2020 | 9,815,746 | 21.7 | 3.27 | 65.1 | 256,111 | 66,981 | +10,703 | +2.0% |
| 2023 | 10,389,635 | 22.3 | 3.10 | 66.1 | 255,331 | 67,700 | −787 | +1.8% |
| 2024* | 10,576,502 | 22.6 | 3.07 | 66.3 | 256,911 | 69,320 | −707 | +1.8% |
| 2026* | 10,947,848 | 23.0 | 2.99 | 66.5 | 257,492 | 72,657 | −534 | +1.7% |
| 2030* | 11,671,424 | 23.9 | 2.84 | 67.0 | 259,323 | 80,015 | −1,184 | +1.5% |
| 2040* | 13,376,160 | 26.3 | 2.56 | 68.2 | 266,669 | 101,905 | −2,220 | +1.2% |
| 2050* | 14,906,590 | 28.5 | 2.36 | 69.2 | 269,079 | 126,694 | −1,787 | +0.9% |
| 2060* | 16,184,460 | 30.6 | 2.21 | 70.3 | 263,937 | 151,435 | +2,833 | +0.7% |
| 2070* | 17,185,172 | 32.4 | 2.10 | 71.3 | 258,434 | 174,297 | +1,596 | +0.5% |
| 2080* | 17,911,988 | 34.0 | 2.01 | 72.4 | 250,943 | 193,003 | +6,764 | +0.4% |
| 2090* | 18,405,692 | 35.6 | 1.94 | 73.6 | 241,437 | 207,406 | +6,116 | +0.2% |
| 2100* | 18,640,541 | 37.2 | 1.88 | 74.8 | 229,406 | 218,963 | −1,408 | +0.1% |
* 2024 onward is the UN medium projection. Fertility is births per woman; life expectancy is years at birth; births, deaths, and net migration are counts for that calendar year.
Download every year, 1950–2100 (CSV)
2026 population by age and sex
The table provides the counts behind the chart. Age groups are five-year bands, with everyone aged 100 or older combined.
| Age group | Male | Female | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–4 | 640,222 | 598,237 | 1,238,459 | 11.3% |
| 5–9 | 622,595 | 581,240 | 1,203,835 | 11.0% |
| 10–14 | 597,174 | 551,343 | 1,148,517 | 10.5% |
| 15–19 | 562,524 | 511,822 | 1,074,346 | 9.8% |
| 20–24 | 524,953 | 475,224 | 1,000,177 | 9.1% |
| 25–29 | 479,202 | 440,269 | 919,471 | 8.4% |
| 30–34 | 434,500 | 409,527 | 844,027 | 7.7% |
| 35–39 | 386,130 | 380,798 | 766,928 | 7.0% |
| 40–44 | 324,756 | 334,189 | 658,945 | 6.0% |
| 45–49 | 275,645 | 285,269 | 560,914 | 5.1% |
| 50–54 | 231,588 | 236,576 | 468,164 | 4.3% |
| 55–59 | 187,154 | 185,151 | 372,305 | 3.4% |
| 60–64 | 147,124 | 137,504 | 284,628 | 2.6% |
| 65–69 | 100,451 | 91,809 | 192,260 | 1.8% |
| 70–74 | 58,056 | 56,172 | 114,228 | 1.0% |
| 75–79 | 30,113 | 31,094 | 61,207 | 0.6% |
| 80–84 | 13,032 | 14,594 | 27,626 | 0.3% |
| 85–89 | 4,165 | 5,186 | 9,351 | 0.1% |
| 90–94 | 907 | 1,203 | 2,110 | 0.0% |
| 95–99 | 137 | 178 | 315 | 0.0% |
| 100+ | 15 | 19 | 34 | 0.0% |
Countries with the most similar age structure
These profiles have the 2026 age distributions closest to Papua New Guinea’s, measured by the total difference in the share of the population in each five-year band. Similar shapes can arise from very different histories, so the match is a starting point for comparison, not an explanation.
- Haiti98% overlap · median age 24.3
- Eswatini97% overlap · median age 22.7
- Kiribati97% overlap · median age 23.0
- Ghana97% overlap · median age 21.6
- Honduras96% overlap · median age 24.6
- Iraq96% overlap · median age 21.1
To calculate school-age, working-age, or older groups with other boundaries, use the age-group calculator for Papua New Guinea.
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APA
World Population Pyramid. (2026, October 19). Papua New Guinea Population Pyramid 2026. https://worldpopulationpyramid.com/countries/papua-new-guinea/
MLA
“Papua New Guinea Population Pyramid 2026.” World Population Pyramid, 19 Oct. 2026, worldpopulationpyramid.com/countries/papua-new-guinea/.
Chicago
World Population Pyramid. “Papua New Guinea Population Pyramid 2026.” Last modified October 19, 2026. https://worldpopulationpyramid.com/countries/papua-new-guinea/.
Underlying data: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2024). World Population Prospects 2024.
Frequently asked questions
What is the population of Papua New Guinea in 2026?
Under the UN World Population Prospects 2024 medium scenario, Papua New Guinea's population in 2026 is projected at 10,947,848.
What is the median age in Papua New Guinea?
The projected median age in Papua New Guinea in 2026 is 23.0 years: half the population is younger and half is older.
What is the fertility rate in Papua New Guinea?
The projected total fertility rate in 2026 is 2.99 births per woman, above the replacement level of about 2.1 in low-mortality populations.
Is Papua New Guinea's population projected to grow?
Between 2026 and 2050, the UN medium scenario indicates the population will grow by about 36%, from 10.9M to 14.9M.
What share of Papua New Guinea is aged 65 or older?
In 2026, 3.7% of the projected population is aged 65 or older. By 2050, the medium scenario places the share at 7.4%.
How many babies are born in Papua New Guinea each year?
The UN medium scenario projects 257,492 births and 72,657 deaths in 2026, about 705 births a day. Births exceed deaths by 184,835.
What is life expectancy in Papua New Guinea for men and women?
Life expectancy at birth in 2026 is projected at 69.5 years for women and 64.0 years for men, a gap of 5.5 years in favour of women.
Does Papua New Guinea have more immigrants or emigrants?
Papua New Guinea is projected to lose about 534 more people through emigration than it gains in 2026. Between 2000 and 2023 the UN estimates cumulative net migration of +804,833.
What is the sex ratio in Papua New Guinea?
The projected 2026 population sex ratio is 105.5 males per 100 females. This all-age ratio is different from the sex ratio at birth and can vary substantially by age.
Sources and notes
- United Nations, DESA, Population Division: World Population Prospects 2024, medium scenario.
- Population values are mid-year figures. Source values published in thousands are converted to people; displayed figures may imply more precision than is appropriate for planning.
- Historical values through 2023 are estimates. Values from 2024 onward are projections.
- Calculations follow the site methodology.