Vanuatu population pyramid 2026
342,564 people in 2026 (projected). Vanuatu’s pyramid is broad and still widening at the base, with births outnumbering deaths more than five to one and growth projected to continue beyond 2100.
- 2026 population
- 342.6Krank 182 of 237
- Median age
- 20.3 yearsoldest rank 195
- Fertility rate
- 3.50births per woman · above replacement
- Structure
- Youthful4.5% age 65+
Vanuatu population pyramid
2026 · Share of total by five-year age group and sex
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The UN series provides historical estimates through 2023. Figures from 2024 onward—including 2026—are medium-scenario projections, not counts or predictions guaranteed to occur.
Vanuatu age distribution in 2026
Children under 15 account for 37.6% of the population, while 4.5% are aged 65 or older. The remaining 58.0% are in the conventional working-age range of 15–64. On these shares, the site classifies Vanuatu’s age structure as youthful; the guide to expansive population pyramids explains what that shape implies.
The total age dependency ratio is 72.5: about 73 people under 15 or 65+ for every 100 people aged 15–64 (64.8 children and 7.7 older people). This is an age-balance indicator, not a literal count of economic dependants per worker.
What shapes Vanuatu’s population pyramid
Young and growing
Vanuatu has one of the youngest populations in the Pacific. Fertility has fallen slowly, from about seven children per woman in 1950 to 3.5 in 2026, while life expectancy has risen to about 70 for men and 74.5 for women. In 2026 the UN projects about 9,200 births against 1,700 deaths, and under-15s make up about 38% of residents, placing Vanuatu high in the ranking of child population share. The result is a classic expansive pyramid whose base keeps widening: the population is projected to rise from about 343,000 in 2026 to 534,000 in 2050 and about 875,000 in 2100, still growing.
Irregularities in a small population
With only a few thousand people in each older five-year band, the chart is sensitive to small errors and real fluctuations alike. In 2026 the 45–49 band, born about 1977–81, is about 21% smaller than its neighbours, and the 50–54 band, born 1972–76, about 15% larger; the chart alone cannot show whether these reflect actual birth swings, migration or the limits of census data. The 1950 and 2000 charts also show a large surplus of older men, around two to one at 50–54 in 1950, for which the UN data offer no explanation.
Women outnumber men at ages 25–44 in 2026, a pattern consistent with, though not proof of, men leaving temporarily for seasonal work schemes in Australia and New Zealand. Net emigration is small overall, about 15,000 between 2000 and 2023. The 2026 structure most resembles those of Equatorial Guinea, Gabon and Comoros.
What to notice across the years
Distinctive cohorts and turning points
Comparing each five-year band with its neighbours picks out the cohorts that break a smooth slope. These irregularities usually record past surges or deficits in births, or migration concentrated at particular ages; the pattern alone does not identify which. The guide to baby booms and echo cohorts explains how to date and interpret them.
| Age band in 2026 | Born about | Feature | Versus neighbouring bands |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45–49 | 1977–1981 | Notch (smaller cohort) | −21% |
| 50–54 | 1972–1976 | Bulge (larger cohort) | +15% |
In the UN medium scenario births outnumber deaths in every year through 2100. Children under 15 outnumber people aged 65 and older in every pyramid year through 2100.
Births, deaths, and migration
A pyramid changes in only three ways: births add to the base, deaths remove people at every age, and migration adds or removes people mainly in young adulthood. In 2026, Vanuatu is projected to record 9,193 births (about 25 births a day) and 1,689 deaths, a natural increase of 7,504. Net migration adds −113 people, ranking #120 in the net migration rate ranking.
Between 2000 and 2023 the UN estimates 188,169 births, 32,690 deaths, and cumulative net migration of −15,329. Over that period the balance of births and deaths moved the total more than migration did. See how migration shapes a pyramid and birth rate versus fertility rate. The medium scenario assumes net migration of −9,344 between 2026 and 2050.
Annual values 1950–2100; dashed lines after 2023 are the UN medium projection. The trend table below lists the values by decade.
Life expectancy and mortality
- Life expectancy, women
- 74.5 years45.2 in 1950
- Life expectancy, men
- 69.9 years43.3 in 1950
- Further years at 65
- 14.6 yearsboth sexes
- Infant mortality
- 13.2per 1,000 births · 130 in 1950
- Under-five mortality
- 15.8per 1,000 births
- Mother’s mean age at birth
- 28.0 yearssex ratio at birth 107.0
Women in Vanuatu are projected to live 4.6 years longer than men, which is why the female side of the pyramid widens relative to the other at older ages (see the life expectancy gap ranking). Infant mortality has fallen from 130 to 13.2 deaths per 1,000 live births since 1950, ranking #86 of 237 in the infant mortality ranking (highest first). A mean age at childbearing of 28.0 years sets the spacing between generations, and so how far apart echo cohorts sit in the pyramid.
Median age, fertility rate, and global ranks for Vanuatu
The median age of 20.3 years splits the population into two equal halves. A total fertility rate of 3.50 births per woman is above the replacement level of roughly 2.1, and life expectancy at birth is 72.0 years.
These ranks compare all 237 countries and areas in this dataset using the same 2026 UN medium projection. Ranks use the stored source precision, so displayed rounding can make adjacent values look identical; small differences should not be overinterpreted.
| Indicator | 2026 value | Global rank | Ranking direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Population | 342,564 | #182 | Largest first |
| Median age | 20.3 years | #195 | Oldest first |
| Fertility rate | 3.50 | #40 | Highest first |
| Annual growth | +2.2% | #33 | Fastest first |
| Life expectancy | 72.0 years | #161 | Highest first |
| Population aged 65+ | 4.5% | #176 | Highest share first |
Largest age groups in Vanuatu
The five largest cohorts identify where the 2026 population is concentrated. They can reflect past birth patterns, survival, and migration; the chart alone does not establish which cause dominates.
| Rank | Age group | Population | Share of total | Male / female |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0–4 | 44,524 | 13.0% | 23K / 21.5K |
| 2 | 5–9 | 43,524 | 12.7% | 22.4K / 21.1K |
| 3 | 10–14 | 40,657 | 11.9% | 20.9K / 19.7K |
| 4 | 15–19 | 34,558 | 10.1% | 17.8K / 16.8K |
| 5 | 20–24 | 27,759 | 8.1% | 14.1K / 13.7K |
Sex ratio and the balance by age
In the 2026 projection, Vanuatu has 172,827 males and 169,738 females. That is 101.8 males per 100 females, ranking #47 when the dataset is ordered from the highest male-to-female ratio to the lowest.
Males account for 50.5% of the population and females for 49.5%. There are 3,089 more males than females overall. Among people aged 65 and older, the ratio is 91.0 males per 100 females.
The overall balance can conceal large differences by age; how sex ratios change with age explains the usual pattern. The ratio reflects the male/female categories in the UN source and is not a measure of gender identity. Compare all profiles in the sex-ratio ranking.
At birth, 107.0 boys are projected to be born for every 100 girls in 2026, close to the biological norm of about 105 (compare the sex ratio at birth ranking). The ratio at birth sets the balance at the base of the pyramid; how it changes with age then depends on survival and migration.
How Vanuatu has changed since 1950
The population has increased from 51,542 in 1950 to 342,564 in 2026, a change of 565%. Over the same span, median age moved from 17.7 to 20.3 years.
The under-15 share changed from 42.3% to 37.6%, while the share aged 65 and older changed from 5.6% to 4.5%. These shifts show why total population growth and age-structure change need to be read separately.
How the population could change by 2050
Under the UN medium scenario, Vanuatu’s population is projected to grow by about 56%, reaching 534,388 in 2050. The median age changes from 20.3 to 25.2 years.
The 65+ share is projected to rise by 2.3 percentage points to 6.8%. At the same time, the under-15 share is projected at 30.6%. How UN projections work explains the assumptions behind these figures.
The population is still rising at the end of the UN medium projection in 2100, when it reaches 875,479. The page therefore does not assign a peak year beyond the available horizon.
Population trend: 1950–2100
Mid-year population for every year. Estimates through 2023; dashed line shows the UN medium projection.
| Year | Population | Median age | Fertility | Life exp. | Births | Deaths | Net migration | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1950 | 51,542 | 17.7 | 7.04 | 43.9 | 2,145 | 1,151 | −164 | +1.6% |
| 1960 | 64,431 | 16.6 | 6.78 | 49.8 | 2,857 | 1,060 | 0 | +2.8% |
| 1970 | 86,266 | 15.9 | 6.35 | 55.3 | 3,647 | 1,050 | −46 | +3.0% |
| 1980 | 115,660 | 16.5 | 5.69 | 61.3 | 4,661 | 1,277 | −896 | +2.1% |
| 1990 | 148,062 | 16.7 | 5.17 | 66.7 | 5,770 | 1,009 | −1,072 | +2.5% |
| 2000 | 186,281 | 17.1 | 4.54 | 68.6 | 6,019 | 994 | −339 | +2.5% |
| 2010 | 238,248 | 19.5 | 4.13 | 69.6 | 7,850 | 1,303 | −1,413 | +2.2% |
| 2020 | 298,858 | 20.2 | 3.74 | 70.4 | 8,948 | 1,715 | −201 | +2.4% |
| 2023 | 320,408 | 20.1 | 3.60 | 71.5 | 8,988 | 1,629 | 0 | +2.3% |
| 2024* | 327,777 | 20.2 | 3.57 | 71.7 | 9,063 | 1,645 | −43 | +2.3% |
| 2026* | 342,564 | 20.3 | 3.50 | 72.0 | 9,193 | 1,689 | −113 | +2.2% |
| 2030* | 372,428 | 20.9 | 3.35 | 72.7 | 9,587 | 1,820 | −186 | +2.0% |
| 2040* | 451,512 | 23.1 | 3.05 | 74.3 | 10,980 | 2,288 | −479 | +1.8% |
| 2050* | 534,388 | 25.2 | 2.80 | 75.8 | 11,551 | 2,798 | −508 | +1.5% |
| 2060* | 614,758 | 27.2 | 2.61 | 77.4 | 11,951 | 3,395 | −717 | +1.3% |
| 2070* | 692,031 | 29.3 | 2.45 | 78.9 | 12,374 | 4,154 | −723 | +1.1% |
| 2080* | 763,058 | 31.6 | 2.32 | 80.3 | 12,342 | 4,943 | −791 | +0.9% |
| 2090* | 824,564 | 33.9 | 2.21 | 81.7 | 12,204 | 5,736 | −822 | +0.7% |
| 2100* | 875,479 | 36.0 | 2.12 | 83.0 | 11,966 | 6,754 | −804 | +0.5% |
* 2024 onward is the UN medium projection. Fertility is births per woman; life expectancy is years at birth; births, deaths, and net migration are counts for that calendar year.
Download every year, 1950–2100 (CSV)
2026 population by age and sex
The table provides the counts behind the chart. Age groups are five-year bands, with everyone aged 100 or older combined.
| Age group | Male | Female | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–4 | 22,986 | 21,538 | 44,524 | 13.0% |
| 5–9 | 22,446 | 21,078 | 43,524 | 12.7% |
| 10–14 | 20,915 | 19,742 | 40,657 | 11.9% |
| 15–19 | 17,770 | 16,788 | 34,558 | 10.1% |
| 20–24 | 14,095 | 13,664 | 27,759 | 8.1% |
| 25–29 | 11,890 | 12,648 | 24,538 | 7.2% |
| 30–34 | 11,945 | 13,091 | 25,036 | 7.3% |
| 35–39 | 10,873 | 11,841 | 22,714 | 6.6% |
| 40–44 | 9,326 | 9,781 | 19,107 | 5.6% |
| 45–49 | 6,467 | 6,298 | 12,765 | 3.7% |
| 50–54 | 7,262 | 6,043 | 13,305 | 3.9% |
| 55–59 | 5,399 | 4,933 | 10,332 | 3.0% |
| 60–64 | 4,166 | 4,285 | 8,451 | 2.5% |
| 65–69 | 2,946 | 3,489 | 6,435 | 1.9% |
| 70–74 | 2,049 | 2,450 | 4,499 | 1.3% |
| 75–79 | 1,270 | 1,254 | 2,524 | 0.7% |
| 80–84 | 641 | 511 | 1,152 | 0.3% |
| 85–89 | 271 | 194 | 465 | 0.1% |
| 90–94 | 84 | 78 | 162 | 0.0% |
| 95–99 | 23 | 30 | 53 | 0.0% |
| 100+ | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0.0% |
Countries with the most similar age structure
These profiles have the 2026 age distributions closest to Vanuatu’s, measured by the total difference in the share of the population in each five-year band. Similar shapes can arise from very different histories, so the match is a starting point for comparison, not an explanation.
- Equatorial Guinea97% overlap · median age 20.9
- Gabon97% overlap · median age 21.6
- State of Palestine97% overlap · median age 20.3
- Comoros97% overlap · median age 20.7
- Namibia97% overlap · median age 21.5
- Ghana97% overlap · median age 21.6
To calculate school-age, working-age, or older groups with other boundaries, use the age-group calculator for Vanuatu.
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APA
World Population Pyramid. (2026, October 19). Vanuatu Population Pyramid 2026. https://worldpopulationpyramid.com/countries/vanuatu/
MLA
“Vanuatu Population Pyramid 2026.” World Population Pyramid, 19 Oct. 2026, worldpopulationpyramid.com/countries/vanuatu/.
Chicago
World Population Pyramid. “Vanuatu Population Pyramid 2026.” Last modified October 19, 2026. https://worldpopulationpyramid.com/countries/vanuatu/.
Underlying data: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2024). World Population Prospects 2024.
Frequently asked questions
What is the population of Vanuatu in 2026?
Under the UN World Population Prospects 2024 medium scenario, Vanuatu's population in 2026 is projected at 342,564.
What is the median age in Vanuatu?
The projected median age in Vanuatu in 2026 is 20.3 years: half the population is younger and half is older.
What is the fertility rate in Vanuatu?
The projected total fertility rate in 2026 is 3.50 births per woman, above the replacement level of about 2.1 in low-mortality populations.
Is Vanuatu's population projected to grow?
Between 2026 and 2050, the UN medium scenario indicates the population will grow by about 56%, from 342.6K to 534.4K.
What share of Vanuatu is aged 65 or older?
In 2026, 4.5% of the projected population is aged 65 or older. By 2050, the medium scenario places the share at 6.8%.
How many babies are born in Vanuatu each year?
The UN medium scenario projects 9,193 births and 1,689 deaths in 2026, about 25 births a day. Births exceed deaths by 7,504.
What is life expectancy in Vanuatu for men and women?
Life expectancy at birth in 2026 is projected at 74.5 years for women and 69.9 years for men, a gap of 4.6 years in favour of women.
Does Vanuatu have more immigrants or emigrants?
Vanuatu is projected to lose about 113 more people through emigration than it gains in 2026. Between 2000 and 2023 the UN estimates cumulative net migration of −15,329.
What is the sex ratio in Vanuatu?
The projected 2026 population sex ratio is 101.8 males per 100 females. This all-age ratio is different from the sex ratio at birth and can vary substantially by age.
Sources and notes
- United Nations, DESA, Population Division: World Population Prospects 2024, medium scenario.
- Population values are mid-year figures. Source values published in thousands are converted to people; displayed figures may imply more precision than is appropriate for planning.
- Historical values through 2023 are estimates. Values from 2024 onward are projections.
- Calculations follow the site methodology.