French Polynesia population pyramid 2026
283,076 people in 2026 (projected). French Polynesia’s pyramid is narrowing fast at the base: fertility fell from about six children per woman in 1960 to 1.5, and the median age has doubled since 1975.
- 2026 population
- 283.1Krank 186 of 237
- Median age
- 36.7 yearsoldest rank 94
- Fertility rate
- 1.47births per woman · below replacement
- Structure
- Older12.6% age 65+
French Polynesia population pyramid
2026 · Share of total by five-year age group and sex
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The UN series provides historical estimates through 2023. Figures from 2024 onward—including 2026—are medium-scenario projections, not counts or predictions guaranteed to occur.
French Polynesia age distribution in 2026
Children under 15 account for 17.8% of the population, while 12.6% are aged 65 or older. The remaining 69.6% are in the conventional working-age range of 15–64. On these shares, the site classifies French Polynesia’s age structure as older; the guide to constrictive population pyramids explains what that shape implies.
The total age dependency ratio is 43.7: about 44 people under 15 or 65+ for every 100 people aged 15–64 (25.7 children and 18.1 older people). This is an age-balance indicator, not a literal count of economic dependants per worker.
What shapes French Polynesia’s population pyramid
A rapid transition in a small population
In 1975 French Polynesia had a median age of about 17 and a classic young pyramid. Since then it has changed quickly: fertility, close to six children per woman around 1960, fell below four by 1980, reached about 2.2 in 2010 and was about 1.5 in 2023. The pyramid now has its widest band at 15–19, a fairly even section from 20 to 59, and a base that narrows sharply, with about 14,800 children aged 0–4 against 21,600 young people aged 15–19. The median age has roughly doubled, to about 37.
Emigration and an ageing outlook
With about 283,000 people spread over many islands, the bands below 60 hold only about 15,000–22,000 people each, so modest shifts in births or migration show up clearly. Between 2000 and 2023 births outnumbered deaths about five to one, yet the population grew only from about 240,000 to 281,000, because net emigration of about 39,000 people removed nearly half of the natural increase. The current profile is closest to those of the Bahamas, Antigua and Barbuda and New Caledonia, the other large French Pacific territory.
Life expectancy is estimated at about 84 in 2023. Combined with low fertility, this means the medium scenario projects a peak of about 289,000 around 2040, deaths outnumbering births from 2046 and a median age near 48 by 2050, which would place the territory among the older populations in the median age ranking.
What to notice across the years
Distinctive cohorts and turning points
No five-year band under age 80 is more than 10% larger or smaller than both of its neighbours, so French Polynesia’s 2026 pyramid has a comparatively smooth profile without sharp bulges or notches.
Births outnumber deaths in 2026; the medium scenario projects deaths to exceed births from 2046. People aged 65 and older are projected to outnumber children under 15 by 2035.
Births, deaths, and migration
A pyramid changes in only three ways: births add to the base, deaths remove people at every age, and migration adds or removes people mainly in young adulthood. In 2026, French Polynesia is projected to record 2,916 births (about 8 births a day) and 1,174 deaths, a natural increase of 1,742. Net migration adds −1,158 people, ranking #210 in the net migration rate ranking.
Between 2000 and 2023 the UN estimates 102,111 births, 20,158 deaths, and cumulative net migration of −38,923. Over that period the balance of births and deaths moved the total more than migration did. See how migration shapes a pyramid and birth rate versus fertility rate. The medium scenario assumes net migration of −16,338 between 2026 and 2050.
Annual values 1950–2100; dashed lines after 2023 are the UN medium projection. The trend table below lists the values by decade.
Life expectancy and mortality
- Life expectancy, women
- 86.9 years53.2 in 1950
- Life expectancy, men
- 82.2 years50.8 in 1950
- Further years at 65
- 21.8 yearsboth sexes
- Infant mortality
- 4.9per 1,000 births · 111 in 1950
- Under-five mortality
- 5.7per 1,000 births
- Mother’s mean age at birth
- 29.4 yearssex ratio at birth 105.9
Women in French Polynesia are projected to live 4.7 years longer than men, which is why the female side of the pyramid widens relative to the other at older ages (see the life expectancy gap ranking). Infant mortality has fallen from 111 to 4.9 deaths per 1,000 live births since 1950, ranking #169 of 237 in the infant mortality ranking (highest first). A mean age at childbearing of 29.4 years sets the spacing between generations, and so how far apart echo cohorts sit in the pyramid.
Median age, fertility rate, and global ranks for French Polynesia
The median age of 36.7 years splits the population into two equal halves. A total fertility rate of 1.47 births per woman is below the replacement level of roughly 2.1, and life expectancy at birth is 84.4 years.
These ranks compare all 237 countries and areas in this dataset using the same 2026 UN medium projection. Ranks use the stored source precision, so displayed rounding can make adjacent values look identical; small differences should not be overinterpreted.
| Indicator | 2026 value | Global rank | Ranking direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Population | 283,076 | #186 | Largest first |
| Median age | 36.7 years | #94 | Oldest first |
| Fertility rate | 1.47 | #174 | Highest first |
| Annual growth | +0.2% | #161 | Fastest first |
| Life expectancy | 84.4 years | #8 | Highest first |
| Population aged 65+ | 12.6% | #100 | Highest share first |
Largest age groups in French Polynesia
The five largest cohorts identify where the 2026 population is concentrated. They can reflect past birth patterns, survival, and migration; the chart alone does not establish which cause dominates.
| Rank | Age group | Population | Share of total | Male / female |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15–19 | 21,646 | 7.6% | 11.1K / 10.6K |
| 2 | 35–39 | 21,618 | 7.6% | 10.8K / 10.9K |
| 3 | 40–44 | 21,569 | 7.6% | 10.7K / 10.9K |
| 4 | 20–24 | 20,698 | 7.3% | 10.5K / 10.2K |
| 5 | 10–14 | 19,771 | 7.0% | 10.2K / 9.5K |
Sex ratio and the balance by age
In the 2026 projection, French Polynesia has 142,962 males and 140,114 females. That is 102.0 males per 100 females, ranking #45 when the dataset is ordered from the highest male-to-female ratio to the lowest.
Males account for 50.5% of the population and females for 49.5%. There are 2,848 more males than females overall. Among people aged 65 and older, the ratio is 95.2 males per 100 females.
The overall balance can conceal large differences by age; how sex ratios change with age explains the usual pattern. The ratio reflects the male/female categories in the UN source and is not a measure of gender identity. Compare all profiles in the sex-ratio ranking.
At birth, 105.9 boys are projected to be born for every 100 girls in 2026, close to the biological norm of about 105 (compare the sex ratio at birth ranking). The ratio at birth sets the balance at the base of the pyramid; how it changes with age then depends on survival and migration.
How French Polynesia has changed since 1950
The population has increased from 64,342 in 1950 to 283,076 in 2026, a change of 340%. Over the same span, median age moved from 16.9 to 36.7 years.
The under-15 share changed from 43.6% to 17.8%, while the share aged 65 and older changed from 3.0% to 12.6%. These shifts show why total population growth and age-structure change need to be read separately.
How the population could change by 2050
Under the UN medium scenario, French Polynesia’s population is projected to remain broadly stable, reaching 284,750 in 2050. The median age changes from 36.7 to 47.6 years.
The 65+ share is projected to rise by 15.9 percentage points to 28.5%. At the same time, the under-15 share is projected at 12.9%. How UN projections work explains the assumptions behind these figures.
The annual UN series reaches its highest projected population of 289,169 in 2040. That turning point depends on the medium scenario and may move in later revisions. Compare timing across countries in the population peak ranking.
Population trend: 1950–2100
Mid-year population for every year. Estimates through 2023; dashed line shows the UN medium projection.
| Year | Population | Median age | Fertility | Life exp. | Births | Deaths | Net migration | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1950 | 64,342 | 16.9 | 5.47 | 51.9 | 2,473 | 898 | −71 | +2.3% |
| 1960 | 83,671 | 16.9 | 5.93 | 59.4 | 3,549 | 816 | −957 | +2.1% |
| 1970 | 114,010 | 15.8 | 5.63 | 62.5 | 4,301 | 879 | +542 | +3.5% |
| 1980 | 156,471 | 18.0 | 3.93 | 67.4 | 4,704 | 839 | +1,108 | +3.2% |
| 1990 | 203,776 | 20.5 | 3.43 | 73.9 | 5,870 | 719 | −1,105 | +2.0% |
| 2000 | 240,337 | 24.1 | 2.60 | 79.0 | 5,142 | 622 | −721 | +1.6% |
| 2010 | 270,580 | 27.7 | 2.17 | 81.1 | 4,823 | 798 | −2,917 | +0.4% |
| 2020 | 279,209 | 33.0 | 1.57 | 82.5 | 3,290 | 1,064 | −1,443 | +0.3% |
| 2023 | 281,118 | 34.8 | 1.50 | 84.1 | 3,066 | 1,026 | −1,348 | +0.3% |
| 2024* | 281,807 | 35.4 | 1.49 | 84.2 | 3,012 | 1,073 | −1,261 | +0.2% |
| 2026* | 283,076 | 36.7 | 1.47 | 84.4 | 2,916 | 1,174 | −1,158 | +0.2% |
| 2030* | 285,546 | 39.0 | 1.46 | 84.9 | 2,819 | 1,391 | −767 | +0.2% |
| 2040* | 289,169 | 43.9 | 1.48 | 86.1 | 2,636 | 2,038 | −585 | +0.0% |
| 2050* | 284,750 | 47.6 | 1.50 | 87.3 | 2,218 | 2,744 | −384 | -0.3% |
| 2060* | 270,427 | 51.4 | 1.51 | 88.3 | 1,855 | 3,284 | −351 | -0.7% |
| 2070* | 251,167 | 54.9 | 1.52 | 89.4 | 1,734 | 3,500 | −234 | -0.8% |
| 2080* | 230,088 | 56.3 | 1.53 | 90.5 | 1,530 | 3,501 | −227 | -1.0% |
| 2090* | 208,204 | 56.7 | 1.54 | 91.5 | 1,312 | 3,307 | −184 | -1.0% |
| 2100* | 186,863 | 57.6 | 1.54 | 92.5 | 1,198 | 3,159 | −151 | -1.1% |
* 2024 onward is the UN medium projection. Fertility is births per woman; life expectancy is years at birth; births, deaths, and net migration are counts for that calendar year.
Download every year, 1950–2100 (CSV)
2026 population by age and sex
The table provides the counts behind the chart. Age groups are five-year bands, with everyone aged 100 or older combined.
| Age group | Male | Female | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–4 | 7,593 | 7,185 | 14,778 | 5.2% |
| 5–9 | 8,265 | 7,707 | 15,972 | 5.6% |
| 10–14 | 10,222 | 9,549 | 19,771 | 7.0% |
| 15–19 | 11,090 | 10,556 | 21,646 | 7.6% |
| 20–24 | 10,534 | 10,164 | 20,698 | 7.3% |
| 25–29 | 9,639 | 9,111 | 18,750 | 6.6% |
| 30–34 | 9,336 | 9,265 | 18,601 | 6.6% |
| 35–39 | 10,751 | 10,867 | 21,618 | 7.6% |
| 40–44 | 10,657 | 10,912 | 21,569 | 7.6% |
| 45–49 | 9,803 | 9,725 | 19,528 | 6.9% |
| 50–54 | 9,653 | 9,515 | 19,168 | 6.8% |
| 55–59 | 9,685 | 9,243 | 18,928 | 6.7% |
| 60–64 | 8,365 | 8,066 | 16,431 | 5.8% |
| 65–69 | 6,529 | 6,239 | 12,768 | 4.5% |
| 70–74 | 4,923 | 4,882 | 9,805 | 3.5% |
| 75–79 | 2,913 | 3,151 | 6,064 | 2.1% |
| 80–84 | 1,849 | 2,127 | 3,976 | 1.4% |
| 85–89 | 843 | 1,174 | 2,017 | 0.7% |
| 90–94 | 264 | 530 | 794 | 0.3% |
| 95–99 | 46 | 125 | 171 | 0.1% |
| 100+ | 3 | 22 | 25 | 0.0% |
Countries with the most similar age structure
These profiles have the 2026 age distributions closest to French Polynesia’s, measured by the total difference in the share of the population in each five-year band. Similar shapes can arise from very different histories, so the match is a starting point for comparison, not an explanation.
- Bahamas96% overlap · median age 35.7
- Antigua and Barbuda96% overlap · median age 36.7
- New Caledonia96% overlap · median age 34.8
- Costa Rica96% overlap · median age 35.7
- Brazil96% overlap · median age 35.2
- Dominica96% overlap · median age 36.6
To calculate school-age, working-age, or older groups with other boundaries, use the age-group calculator for French Polynesia.
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World Population Pyramid. (2026, October 19). French Polynesia Population Pyramid 2026. https://worldpopulationpyramid.com/countries/french-polynesia/
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“French Polynesia Population Pyramid 2026.” World Population Pyramid, 19 Oct. 2026, worldpopulationpyramid.com/countries/french-polynesia/.
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World Population Pyramid. “French Polynesia Population Pyramid 2026.” Last modified October 19, 2026. https://worldpopulationpyramid.com/countries/french-polynesia/.
Underlying data: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2024). World Population Prospects 2024.
Frequently asked questions
What is the population of French Polynesia in 2026?
Under the UN World Population Prospects 2024 medium scenario, French Polynesia's population in 2026 is projected at 283,076.
What is the median age in French Polynesia?
The projected median age in French Polynesia in 2026 is 36.7 years: half the population is younger and half is older.
What is the fertility rate in French Polynesia?
The projected total fertility rate in 2026 is 1.47 births per woman, below the replacement level of about 2.1 in low-mortality populations.
Is French Polynesia's population projected to grow?
Between 2026 and 2050, the UN medium scenario indicates the population will remain broadly stable, from 283.1K to 284.8K.
What share of French Polynesia is aged 65 or older?
In 2026, 12.6% of the projected population is aged 65 or older. By 2050, the medium scenario places the share at 28.5%.
How many babies are born in French Polynesia each year?
The UN medium scenario projects 2,916 births and 1,174 deaths in 2026, about 8 births a day. Births exceed deaths by 1,742.
What is life expectancy in French Polynesia for men and women?
Life expectancy at birth in 2026 is projected at 86.9 years for women and 82.2 years for men, a gap of 4.7 years in favour of women.
Does French Polynesia have more immigrants or emigrants?
French Polynesia is projected to lose about 1,158 more people through emigration than it gains in 2026. Between 2000 and 2023 the UN estimates cumulative net migration of −38,923.
What is the sex ratio in French Polynesia?
The projected 2026 population sex ratio is 102.0 males per 100 females. This all-age ratio is different from the sex ratio at birth and can vary substantially by age.
Sources and notes
- United Nations, DESA, Population Division: World Population Prospects 2024, medium scenario.
- Population values are mid-year figures. Source values published in thousands are converted to people; displayed figures may imply more precision than is appropriate for planning.
- Historical values through 2023 are estimates. Values from 2024 onward are projections.
- Calculations follow the site methodology.