New Caledonia population pyramid 2026
297,892 people in 2026 (projected). New Caledonia’s pyramid is almost straight-sided from birth to age 59, after fertility fell from over 5 to below 2 within two generations.
- 2026 population
- 297.9Krank 185 of 237
- Median age
- 34.8 yearsoldest rank 107
- Fertility rate
- 1.93births per woman · below replacement
- Structure
- Transitional12.1% age 65+
New Caledonia population pyramid
2026 · Share of total by five-year age group and sex
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The UN series provides historical estimates through 2023. Figures from 2024 onward—including 2026—are medium-scenario projections, not counts or predictions guaranteed to occur.
New Caledonia age distribution in 2026
Children under 15 account for 20.9% of the population, while 12.1% are aged 65 or older. The remaining 67.0% are in the conventional working-age range of 15–64. On these shares, the site classifies New Caledonia’s age structure as transitional; the guide to population pyramid types explains what that shape implies.
The total age dependency ratio is 49.3: about 49 people under 15 or 65+ for every 100 people aged 15–64 (31.2 children and 18.1 older people). This is an age-balance indicator, not a literal count of economic dependants per worker.
What shapes New Caledonia’s population pyramid
From a mining frontier to a column
The 1950 pyramid shows a population of about 64,000 with a clear male surplus in the working ages: at 30–44 there are roughly 35–40% more men than women. That is consistent with the recruitment of male workers for nickel mining and related industries, the mainstay of the territory’s economy. The UN estimates net immigration of about 27,000 people between 1950 and 1999, much of it during the nickel boom of the late 1960s and early 1970s.
Fertility was above 5 children per woman until about 1970, then fell quickly, to about 3.1 in 1990 and just under 2 by 2023. Combined with a rise in life expectancy from 45 in 1950 to almost 79, this has turned the pyramid into something close to a column. In 2026 every five-year band from 0–4 to 55–59 contains between about 18,500 and 21,700 people, and the largest bands are scattered through the age range rather than concentrated at the base. The guide to stationary pyramids describes this shape.
Balanced sexes, slower growth
The early male surplus has disappeared. In 2026 women slightly outnumber men from the early thirties onward, and above 80 the usual female majority, linked to a life-expectancy gap of about five years, becomes pronounced. Migration has been close to balanced since 2000, so changes in the pyramid now come mainly from births and ageing.
The age structure is closest to those of Sri Lanka, Brazil and French Polynesia. Under the UN medium scenario the population grows slowly to a peak of about 348,000 in 2067, deaths first exceed births around 2060, and by 2100 about 30% of residents are 65 or over.
What to notice across the years
Distinctive cohorts and turning points
No five-year band under age 80 is more than 10% larger or smaller than both of its neighbours, so New Caledonia’s 2026 pyramid has a comparatively smooth profile without sharp bulges or notches.
Births outnumber deaths in 2026; the medium scenario projects deaths to exceed births from 2060. People aged 65 and older are projected to outnumber children under 15 by 2040.
Births, deaths, and migration
A pyramid changes in only three ways: births add to the base, deaths remove people at every age, and migration adds or removes people mainly in young adulthood. In 2026, New Caledonia is projected to record 4,038 births (about 11 births a day) and 1,899 deaths, a natural increase of 2,139. Net migration adds +348 people, ranking #67 in the net migration rate ranking.
Between 2000 and 2023 the UN estimates 105,930 births, 36,365 deaths, and cumulative net migration of +932. Over that period the balance of births and deaths moved the total more than migration did. See how migration shapes a pyramid and birth rate versus fertility rate. The medium scenario assumes net migration of +8,818 between 2026 and 2050.
Annual values 1950–2100; dashed lines after 2023 are the UN medium projection. The trend table below lists the values by decade.
Life expectancy and mortality
- Life expectancy, women
- 81.7 years49.9 in 1950
- Life expectancy, men
- 76.8 years41.4 in 1950
- Further years at 65
- 19.4 yearsboth sexes
- Infant mortality
- 7.9per 1,000 births · 116 in 1950
- Under-five mortality
- 10.0per 1,000 births
- Mother’s mean age at birth
- 30.7 yearssex ratio at birth 105.9
Women in New Caledonia are projected to live 4.9 years longer than men, which is why the female side of the pyramid widens relative to the other at older ages (see the life expectancy gap ranking). Infant mortality has fallen from 116 to 7.9 deaths per 1,000 live births since 1950, ranking #140 of 237 in the infant mortality ranking (highest first). A mean age at childbearing of 30.7 years sets the spacing between generations, and so how far apart echo cohorts sit in the pyramid.
Median age, fertility rate, and global ranks for New Caledonia
The median age of 34.8 years splits the population into two equal halves. A total fertility rate of 1.93 births per woman is below the replacement level of roughly 2.1, and life expectancy at birth is 79.2 years.
These ranks compare all 237 countries and areas in this dataset using the same 2026 UN medium projection. Ranks use the stored source precision, so displayed rounding can make adjacent values look identical; small differences should not be overinterpreted.
| Indicator | 2026 value | Global rank | Ranking direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Population | 297,892 | #185 | Largest first |
| Median age | 34.8 years | #107 | Oldest first |
| Fertility rate | 1.93 | #114 | Highest first |
| Annual growth | +0.8% | #110 | Fastest first |
| Life expectancy | 79.2 years | #67 | Highest first |
| Population aged 65+ | 12.1% | #107 | Highest share first |
Largest age groups in New Caledonia
The five largest cohorts identify where the 2026 population is concentrated. They can reflect past birth patterns, survival, and migration; the chart alone does not establish which cause dominates.
| Rank | Age group | Population | Share of total | Male / female |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 35–39 | 21,653 | 7.3% | 10.6K / 11K |
| 2 | 20–24 | 21,563 | 7.2% | 10.8K / 10.8K |
| 3 | 15–19 | 21,202 | 7.1% | 10.7K / 10.5K |
| 4 | 40–44 | 21,052 | 7.1% | 10.4K / 10.7K |
| 5 | 10–14 | 20,885 | 7.0% | 10.6K / 10.3K |
Sex ratio and the balance by age
In the 2026 projection, New Caledonia has 146,981 males and 150,911 females. That is 97.4 males per 100 females, ranking #144 when the dataset is ordered from the highest male-to-female ratio to the lowest.
Males account for 49.3% of the population and females for 50.7%. There are 3,930 more females than males overall. Among people aged 65 and older, the ratio is 87.2 males per 100 females.
The overall balance can conceal large differences by age; how sex ratios change with age explains the usual pattern. The ratio reflects the male/female categories in the UN source and is not a measure of gender identity. Compare all profiles in the sex-ratio ranking.
At birth, 105.9 boys are projected to be born for every 100 girls in 2026, close to the biological norm of about 105 (compare the sex ratio at birth ranking). The ratio at birth sets the balance at the base of the pyramid; how it changes with age then depends on survival and migration.
How New Caledonia has changed since 1950
The population has increased from 63,790 in 1950 to 297,892 in 2026, a change of 367%. Over the same span, median age moved from 21.7 to 34.8 years.
The under-15 share changed from 35.9% to 20.9%, while the share aged 65 and older changed from 5.0% to 12.1%. These shifts show why total population growth and age-structure change need to be read separately.
How the population could change by 2050
Under the UN medium scenario, New Caledonia’s population is projected to grow by about 14%, reaching 340,580 in 2050. The median age changes from 34.8 to 40.6 years.
The 65+ share is projected to rise by 9.5 percentage points to 21.6%. At the same time, the under-15 share is projected at 17.1%. How UN projections work explains the assumptions behind these figures.
The annual UN series reaches its highest projected population of 347,687 in 2067. That turning point depends on the medium scenario and may move in later revisions. Compare timing across countries in the population peak ranking.
Population trend: 1950–2100
Mid-year population for every year. Estimates through 2023; dashed line shows the UN medium projection.
| Year | Population | Median age | Fertility | Life exp. | Births | Deaths | Net migration | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1950 | 63,790 | 21.7 | 5.13 | 45.1 | 2,239 | 1,328 | 0 | +1.4% |
| 1960 | 79,818 | 20.4 | 5.44 | 52.3 | 2,963 | 1,157 | +824 | +3.3% |
| 1970 | 109,338 | 19.4 | 5.07 | 60.1 | 3,825 | 1,030 | +2,267 | +4.6% |
| 1980 | 149,817 | 19.5 | 3.66 | 65.6 | 4,128 | 1,056 | −1,415 | +1.1% |
| 1990 | 176,456 | 22.0 | 3.10 | 69.5 | 4,460 | 1,038 | +1,300 | +2.7% |
| 2000 | 223,098 | 25.5 | 2.51 | 73.6 | 4,730 | 1,151 | +1,070 | +2.1% |
| 2010 | 261,582 | 29.2 | 2.19 | 76.0 | 4,388 | 1,452 | +1,956 | +1.9% |
| 2020 | 284,176 | 32.9 | 2.02 | 77.0 | 4,235 | 2,106 | −1,181 | +0.3% |
| 2023 | 289,870 | 33.9 | 1.98 | 78.8 | 4,134 | 1,818 | +485 | +1.0% |
| 2024* | 292,640 | 34.2 | 1.96 | 78.9 | 4,106 | 1,829 | +455 | +0.9% |
| 2026* | 297,892 | 34.8 | 1.93 | 79.2 | 4,038 | 1,899 | +348 | +0.8% |
| 2030* | 307,577 | 36.0 | 1.88 | 79.9 | 3,947 | 2,062 | +394 | +0.7% |
| 2040* | 327,500 | 38.3 | 1.82 | 81.4 | 3,906 | 2,553 | +278 | +0.5% |
| 2050* | 340,580 | 40.6 | 1.77 | 82.9 | 3,756 | 3,156 | +283 | +0.3% |
| 2060* | 346,410 | 42.3 | 1.75 | 84.2 | 3,592 | 3,608 | +348 | +0.1% |
| 2070* | 347,462 | 43.8 | 1.73 | 85.5 | 3,450 | 3,784 | +260 | -0.0% |
| 2080* | 346,183 | 45.0 | 1.72 | 86.6 | 3,340 | 3,842 | +373 | -0.0% |
| 2090* | 342,951 | 46.2 | 1.72 | 87.7 | 3,194 | 3,868 | +213 | -0.1% |
| 2100* | 337,221 | 47.3 | 1.71 | 88.7 | 3,041 | 3,955 | +211 | -0.2% |
* 2024 onward is the UN medium projection. Fertility is births per woman; life expectancy is years at birth; births, deaths, and net migration are counts for that calendar year.
Download every year, 1950–2100 (CSV)
2026 population by age and sex
The table provides the counts behind the chart. Age groups are five-year bands, with everyone aged 100 or older combined.
| Age group | Male | Female | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–4 | 10,536 | 9,976 | 20,512 | 6.9% |
| 5–9 | 10,626 | 10,159 | 20,785 | 7.0% |
| 10–14 | 10,553 | 10,332 | 20,885 | 7.0% |
| 15–19 | 10,713 | 10,489 | 21,202 | 7.1% |
| 20–24 | 10,761 | 10,802 | 21,563 | 7.2% |
| 25–29 | 10,100 | 10,075 | 20,175 | 6.8% |
| 30–34 | 9,945 | 10,231 | 20,176 | 6.8% |
| 35–39 | 10,623 | 11,030 | 21,653 | 7.3% |
| 40–44 | 10,370 | 10,682 | 21,052 | 7.1% |
| 45–49 | 9,508 | 10,133 | 19,641 | 6.6% |
| 50–54 | 9,639 | 10,261 | 19,900 | 6.7% |
| 55–59 | 9,053 | 9,519 | 18,572 | 6.2% |
| 60–64 | 7,702 | 7,888 | 15,590 | 5.2% |
| 65–69 | 5,894 | 6,479 | 12,373 | 4.2% |
| 70–74 | 4,489 | 4,825 | 9,314 | 3.1% |
| 75–79 | 3,426 | 3,711 | 7,137 | 2.4% |
| 80–84 | 1,981 | 2,465 | 4,446 | 1.5% |
| 85–89 | 819 | 1,287 | 2,106 | 0.7% |
| 90–94 | 210 | 452 | 662 | 0.2% |
| 95–99 | 32 | 105 | 137 | 0.0% |
| 100+ | 2 | 11 | 13 | 0.0% |
Countries with the most similar age structure
These profiles have the 2026 age distributions closest to New Caledonia’s, measured by the total difference in the share of the population in each five-year band. Similar shapes can arise from very different histories, so the match is a starting point for comparison, not an explanation.
- Sri Lanka97% overlap · median age 33.6
- Brazil96% overlap · median age 35.2
- French Polynesia96% overlap · median age 36.7
- Turkey96% overlap · median age 33.9
- Saint Vincent and the Grenadines96% overlap · median age 34.7
- Bahamas96% overlap · median age 35.7
To calculate school-age, working-age, or older groups with other boundaries, use the age-group calculator for New Caledonia.
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APA
World Population Pyramid. (2026, October 19). New Caledonia Population Pyramid 2026. https://worldpopulationpyramid.com/countries/new-caledonia/
MLA
“New Caledonia Population Pyramid 2026.” World Population Pyramid, 19 Oct. 2026, worldpopulationpyramid.com/countries/new-caledonia/.
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World Population Pyramid. “New Caledonia Population Pyramid 2026.” Last modified October 19, 2026. https://worldpopulationpyramid.com/countries/new-caledonia/.
Underlying data: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2024). World Population Prospects 2024.
Frequently asked questions
What is the population of New Caledonia in 2026?
Under the UN World Population Prospects 2024 medium scenario, New Caledonia's population in 2026 is projected at 297,892.
What is the median age in New Caledonia?
The projected median age in New Caledonia in 2026 is 34.8 years: half the population is younger and half is older.
What is the fertility rate in New Caledonia?
The projected total fertility rate in 2026 is 1.93 births per woman, below the replacement level of about 2.1 in low-mortality populations.
Is New Caledonia's population projected to grow?
Between 2026 and 2050, the UN medium scenario indicates the population will grow by about 14%, from 297.9K to 340.6K.
What share of New Caledonia is aged 65 or older?
In 2026, 12.1% of the projected population is aged 65 or older. By 2050, the medium scenario places the share at 21.6%.
How many babies are born in New Caledonia each year?
The UN medium scenario projects 4,038 births and 1,899 deaths in 2026, about 11 births a day. Births exceed deaths by 2,139.
What is life expectancy in New Caledonia for men and women?
Life expectancy at birth in 2026 is projected at 81.7 years for women and 76.8 years for men, a gap of 4.9 years in favour of women.
Does New Caledonia have more immigrants or emigrants?
New Caledonia is projected to gain about 348 more people through migration than it loses in 2026. Between 2000 and 2023 the UN estimates cumulative net migration of +932.
What is the sex ratio in New Caledonia?
The projected 2026 population sex ratio is 97.4 males per 100 females. This all-age ratio is different from the sex ratio at birth and can vary substantially by age.
Sources and notes
- United Nations, DESA, Population Division: World Population Prospects 2024, medium scenario.
- Population values are mid-year figures. Source values published in thousands are converted to people; displayed figures may imply more precision than is appropriate for planning.
- Historical values through 2023 are estimates. Values from 2024 onward are projections.
- Calculations follow the site methodology.