Tonga population pyramid 2026
103,291 people in 2026 (projected). Tonga has barely grown since 1975 despite high fertility, and emigration leaves only about six men for every ten women aged 30–39.
- 2026 population
- 103.3Krank 199 of 237
- Median age
- 21.0 yearsoldest rank 189
- Fertility rate
- 3.04births per woman · above replacement
- Structure
- Youthful7.0% age 65+
Tonga population pyramid
2026 · Share of total by five-year age group and sex
Hover over or tap a bar to see exact values.
Download this population pyramid
Use the publication-ready SVG, create a high-resolution PNG, or download the complete age-by-sex dataset.
The UN series provides historical estimates through 2023. Figures from 2024 onward—including 2026—are medium-scenario projections, not counts or predictions guaranteed to occur.
Tonga age distribution in 2026
Children under 15 account for 34.4% of the population, while 7.0% are aged 65 or older. The remaining 58.6% are in the conventional working-age range of 15–64. On these shares, the site classifies Tonga’s age structure as youthful; the guide to expansive population pyramids explains what that shape implies.
The total age dependency ratio is 70.5: about 71 people under 15 or 65+ for every 100 people aged 15–64 (58.6 children and 11.9 older people). This is an age-balance indicator, not a literal count of economic dependants per worker.
What shapes Tonga’s population pyramid
Natural increase exported abroad
Tonga had about 93,000 inhabitants in 1975 and about 103,000 in 2026, almost no growth over half a century, even though fertility fell only gradually, from about 6 children per woman in 1970 to 3 today. Births still outnumber deaths by more than three to one. The difference has been emigration, mainly to New Zealand, Australia and the United States, where Tongan communities are now large: the UN estimates net emigration of about 68,000 before 2000 and a further 50,000 between 2000 and 2023. In 2026 emigration exceeds natural increase and the population is falling slightly.
A one-sided waist
The departures are not balanced between the sexes. In 2026 the male side narrows sharply from the early twenties, and at ages 30–39 there are only about 63 men per 100 women; the overall sex ratio is about 90. This pattern is often linked to men taking up seasonal and longer-term work abroad, though the chart cannot distinguish temporary from permanent moves. The UN projection carries the gap forward, so that by 2050 women outnumber men by roughly two to one at ages 50–69. With only about 100,000 people, single five-year bands are small and can be moved noticeably by short-term migration; the bulges at 10–14 and 55–59 may partly reflect this.
Under the medium scenario the population remains close to 105,000 in 2050 and rises slowly to about 118,000 by 2100. In 2026 Tonga’s structure most resembles that of Samoa, and the guide to sex ratios by age shows how sex-selective migration creates this kind of pinch.
What to notice across the years
Distinctive cohorts and turning points
Comparing each five-year band with its neighbours picks out the cohorts that break a smooth slope. These irregularities usually record past surges or deficits in births, or migration concentrated at particular ages; the pattern alone does not identify which. The guide to baby booms and echo cohorts explains how to date and interpret them.
| Age band in 2026 | Born about | Feature | Versus neighbouring bands |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55–59 | 1967–1971 | Bulge (larger cohort) | +15% |
In the UN medium scenario births outnumber deaths in every year through 2100. People aged 65 and older are projected to outnumber children under 15 by 2090.
Births, deaths, and migration
A pyramid changes in only three ways: births add to the base, deaths remove people at every age, and migration adds or removes people mainly in young adulthood. In 2026, Tonga is projected to record 2,339 births (about 6 births a day) and 671 deaths, a natural increase of 1,668. Net migration adds −2,117 people, ranking #232 in the net migration rate ranking.
Between 2000 and 2023 the UN estimates 68,428 births, 16,267 deaths, and cumulative net migration of −50,135. Over that period the balance of births and deaths moved the total more than migration did. See how migration shapes a pyramid and birth rate versus fertility rate. The medium scenario assumes net migration of −36,545 between 2026 and 2050.
Annual values 1950–2100; dashed lines after 2023 are the UN medium projection. The trend table below lists the values by decade.
Life expectancy and mortality
- Life expectancy, women
- 76.8 years52.1 in 1950
- Life expectancy, men
- 69.8 years45.2 in 1950
- Further years at 65
- 15.6 yearsboth sexes
- Infant mortality
- 8.1per 1,000 births · 116 in 1950
- Under-five mortality
- 9.6per 1,000 births
- Mother’s mean age at birth
- 29.9 yearssex ratio at birth 108.1
Women in Tonga are projected to live 7.0 years longer than men, which is why the female side of the pyramid widens relative to the other at older ages (see the life expectancy gap ranking). Infant mortality has fallen from 116 to 8.1 deaths per 1,000 live births since 1950, ranking #136 of 237 in the infant mortality ranking (highest first). A mean age at childbearing of 29.9 years sets the spacing between generations, and so how far apart echo cohorts sit in the pyramid.
Median age, fertility rate, and global ranks for Tonga
The median age of 21.0 years splits the population into two equal halves. A total fertility rate of 3.04 births per woman is above the replacement level of roughly 2.1, and life expectancy at birth is 73.4 years.
These ranks compare all 237 countries and areas in this dataset using the same 2026 UN medium projection. Ranks use the stored source precision, so displayed rounding can make adjacent values look identical; small differences should not be overinterpreted.
| Indicator | 2026 value | Global rank | Ranking direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Population | 103,291 | #199 | Largest first |
| Median age | 21.0 years | #189 | Oldest first |
| Fertility rate | 3.04 | #56 | Highest first |
| Annual growth | -0.4% | #202 | Fastest first |
| Life expectancy | 73.4 years | #143 | Highest first |
| Population aged 65+ | 7.0% | #145 | Highest share first |
Largest age groups in Tonga
The five largest cohorts identify where the 2026 population is concentrated. They can reflect past birth patterns, survival, and migration; the chart alone does not establish which cause dominates.
| Rank | Age group | Population | Share of total | Male / female |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10–14 | 12,790 | 12.4% | 6.5K / 6.2K |
| 2 | 15–19 | 11,949 | 11.6% | 6.1K / 5.8K |
| 3 | 5–9 | 11,358 | 11.0% | 5.9K / 5.5K |
| 4 | 0–4 | 11,356 | 11.0% | 5.9K / 5.5K |
| 5 | 20–24 | 9,944 | 9.6% | 4.8K / 5.1K |
Sex ratio and the balance by age
In the 2026 projection, Tonga has 48,775 males and 54,516 females. That is 89.5 males per 100 females, ranking #222 when the dataset is ordered from the highest male-to-female ratio to the lowest.
Males account for 47.2% of the population and females for 52.8%. There are 5,741 more females than males overall. Among people aged 65 and older, the ratio is 71.2 males per 100 females.
The overall balance can conceal large differences by age; how sex ratios change with age explains the usual pattern. The ratio reflects the male/female categories in the UN source and is not a measure of gender identity. Compare all profiles in the sex-ratio ranking.
At birth, 108.1 boys are projected to be born for every 100 girls in 2026, above the biological norm of about 105 (see the sex ratio at birth ranking). The ratio at birth sets the balance at the base of the pyramid; how it changes with age then depends on survival and migration.
How Tonga has changed since 1950
The population has increased from 49,660 in 1950 to 103,291 in 2026, a change of 108%. Over the same span, median age moved from 16.6 to 21.0 years.
The under-15 share changed from 44.3% to 34.4%, while the share aged 65 and older changed from 4.6% to 7.0%. These shifts show why total population growth and age-structure change need to be read separately.
How the population could change by 2050
Under the UN medium scenario, Tonga’s population is projected to remain broadly stable, reaching 105,195 in 2050. The median age changes from 21.0 to 26.5 years.
The 65+ share is projected to rise by 3.7 percentage points to 10.7%. At the same time, the under-15 share is projected at 28.7%. How UN projections work explains the assumptions behind these figures.
The population is still rising at the end of the UN medium projection in 2100, when it reaches 117,871. The page therefore does not assign a peak year beyond the available horizon.
Population trend: 1950–2100
Mid-year population for every year. Estimates through 2023; dashed line shows the UN medium projection.
| Year | Population | Median age | Fertility | Life exp. | Births | Deaths | Net migration | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1950 | 49,660 | 16.6 | 6.70 | 48.4 | 2,148 | 910 | 0 | +2.5% |
| 1960 | 66,170 | 16.0 | 6.65 | 58.3 | 2,931 | 701 | −384 | +2.8% |
| 1970 | 84,402 | 15.6 | 6.07 | 63.2 | 3,271 | 644 | −1,122 | +1.8% |
| 1980 | 97,769 | 16.3 | 5.60 | 66.2 | 3,526 | 641 | −2,708 | +0.2% |
| 1990 | 99,700 | 18.1 | 4.93 | 67.5 | 3,319 | 677 | −2,409 | +0.2% |
| 2000 | 102,677 | 19.3 | 4.16 | 69.6 | 3,018 | 673 | −1,721 | +0.6% |
| 2010 | 107,400 | 20.1 | 3.88 | 71.3 | 3,008 | 677 | −2,097 | +0.2% |
| 2020 | 105,704 | 20.9 | 3.23 | 72.4 | 2,498 | 683 | −1,807 | +0.0% |
| 2023 | 104,598 | 20.7 | 3.13 | 72.9 | 2,418 | 674 | −2,173 | -0.4% |
| 2024* | 104,176 | 20.7 | 3.10 | 73.1 | 2,400 | 671 | −2,149 | -0.4% |
| 2026* | 103,291 | 21.0 | 3.04 | 73.4 | 2,339 | 671 | −2,117 | -0.4% |
| 2030* | 102,072 | 21.6 | 2.91 | 74.0 | 2,276 | 674 | −1,766 | -0.2% |
| 2040* | 102,565 | 24.3 | 2.65 | 75.6 | 2,271 | 694 | −1,358 | +0.2% |
| 2050* | 105,195 | 26.5 | 2.45 | 77.2 | 1,961 | 726 | −999 | +0.2% |
| 2060* | 107,495 | 28.8 | 2.30 | 78.7 | 1,783 | 746 | −753 | +0.3% |
| 2070* | 111,016 | 31.8 | 2.18 | 80.0 | 1,731 | 754 | −600 | +0.3% |
| 2080* | 114,842 | 35.3 | 2.07 | 81.1 | 1,552 | 805 | −425 | +0.3% |
| 2090* | 117,170 | 38.5 | 1.99 | 82.3 | 1,420 | 978 | −300 | +0.1% |
| 2100* | 117,871 | 40.3 | 1.93 | 83.5 | 1,365 | 1,185 | −195 | -0.0% |
* 2024 onward is the UN medium projection. Fertility is births per woman; life expectancy is years at birth; births, deaths, and net migration are counts for that calendar year.
Download every year, 1950–2100 (CSV)
2026 population by age and sex
The table provides the counts behind the chart. Age groups are five-year bands, with everyone aged 100 or older combined.
| Age group | Male | Female | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–4 | 5,900 | 5,456 | 11,356 | 11.0% |
| 5–9 | 5,882 | 5,476 | 11,358 | 11.0% |
| 10–14 | 6,548 | 6,242 | 12,790 | 12.4% |
| 15–19 | 6,137 | 5,812 | 11,949 | 11.6% |
| 20–24 | 4,798 | 5,146 | 9,944 | 9.6% |
| 25–29 | 2,755 | 3,712 | 6,467 | 6.3% |
| 30–34 | 1,943 | 3,160 | 5,103 | 4.9% |
| 35–39 | 1,872 | 2,932 | 4,804 | 4.7% |
| 40–44 | 2,035 | 3,107 | 5,142 | 5.0% |
| 45–49 | 2,067 | 2,674 | 4,741 | 4.6% |
| 50–54 | 2,034 | 2,485 | 4,519 | 4.4% |
| 55–59 | 2,159 | 2,382 | 4,541 | 4.4% |
| 60–64 | 1,647 | 1,722 | 3,369 | 3.3% |
| 65–69 | 1,137 | 1,412 | 2,549 | 2.5% |
| 70–74 | 817 | 1,129 | 1,946 | 1.9% |
| 75–79 | 542 | 766 | 1,308 | 1.3% |
| 80–84 | 308 | 509 | 817 | 0.8% |
| 85–89 | 151 | 278 | 429 | 0.4% |
| 90–94 | 40 | 96 | 136 | 0.1% |
| 95–99 | 3 | 20 | 23 | 0.0% |
| 100+ | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.0% |
Countries with the most similar age structure
These profiles have the 2026 age distributions closest to Tonga’s, measured by the total difference in the share of the population in each five-year band. Similar shapes can arise from very different histories, so the match is a starting point for comparison, not an explanation.
- Samoa96% overlap · median age 19.8
- Marshall Islands93% overlap · median age 20.5
- South Sudan93% overlap · median age 19.0
- Sao Tome and Principe93% overlap · median age 19.7
- French Guiana93% overlap · median age 24.9
- Tuvalu93% overlap · median age 24.1
To calculate school-age, working-age, or older groups with other boundaries, use the age-group calculator for Tonga.
Use this chart in your work
Charts and tables may be reused with attribution. Please link to this page and credit the United Nations as the data source.
Embed the population pyramid
Cite this page
APA
World Population Pyramid. (2026, October 19). Tonga Population Pyramid 2026. https://worldpopulationpyramid.com/countries/tonga/
MLA
“Tonga Population Pyramid 2026.” World Population Pyramid, 19 Oct. 2026, worldpopulationpyramid.com/countries/tonga/.
Chicago
World Population Pyramid. “Tonga Population Pyramid 2026.” Last modified October 19, 2026. https://worldpopulationpyramid.com/countries/tonga/.
Underlying data: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2024). World Population Prospects 2024.
Frequently asked questions
What is the population of Tonga in 2026?
Under the UN World Population Prospects 2024 medium scenario, Tonga's population in 2026 is projected at 103,291.
What is the median age in Tonga?
The projected median age in Tonga in 2026 is 21.0 years: half the population is younger and half is older.
What is the fertility rate in Tonga?
The projected total fertility rate in 2026 is 3.04 births per woman, above the replacement level of about 2.1 in low-mortality populations.
Is Tonga's population projected to grow?
Between 2026 and 2050, the UN medium scenario indicates the population will remain broadly stable, from 103.3K to 105.2K.
What share of Tonga is aged 65 or older?
In 2026, 7.0% of the projected population is aged 65 or older. By 2050, the medium scenario places the share at 10.7%.
How many babies are born in Tonga each year?
The UN medium scenario projects 2,339 births and 671 deaths in 2026, about 6 births a day. Births exceed deaths by 1,668.
What is life expectancy in Tonga for men and women?
Life expectancy at birth in 2026 is projected at 76.8 years for women and 69.8 years for men, a gap of 7.0 years in favour of women.
Does Tonga have more immigrants or emigrants?
Tonga is projected to lose about 2,117 more people through emigration than it gains in 2026. Between 2000 and 2023 the UN estimates cumulative net migration of −50,135.
What is the sex ratio in Tonga?
The projected 2026 population sex ratio is 89.5 males per 100 females. This all-age ratio is different from the sex ratio at birth and can vary substantially by age.
Sources and notes
- United Nations, DESA, Population Division: World Population Prospects 2024, medium scenario.
- Population values are mid-year figures. Source values published in thousands are converted to people; displayed figures may imply more precision than is appropriate for planning.
- Historical values through 2023 are estimates. Values from 2024 onward are projections.
- Calculations follow the site methodology.