Eritrea population pyramid 2026
3,682,669 people in 2026 (projected). Eritrea’s pyramid narrows steeply through the twenties and thirties, where decades of emigration have helped thin the cohorts of young adults.
- 2026 population
- 3.7Mrank 132 of 237
- Median age
- 19.5 yearsoldest rank 205
- Fertility rate
- 3.55births per woman · above replacement
- Structure
- Youthful4.3% age 65+
Eritrea population pyramid
2026 · Share of total by five-year age group and sex
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The UN series provides historical estimates through 2023. Figures from 2024 onward—including 2026—are medium-scenario projections, not counts or predictions guaranteed to occur.
Eritrea age distribution in 2026
Children under 15 account for 37.1% of the population, while 4.3% are aged 65 or older. The remaining 58.6% are in the conventional working-age range of 15–64. On these shares, the site classifies Eritrea’s age structure as youthful; the guide to expansive population pyramids explains what that shape implies.
The total age dependency ratio is 70.7: about 71 people under 15 or 65+ for every 100 people aged 15–64 (63.3 children and 7.4 older people). This is an age-balance indicator, not a literal count of economic dependants per worker.
What shapes Eritrea’s population pyramid
War, conscription and departure
Eritrea’s modern history includes a thirty-year war of independence that ended in 1991, a border war with Ethiopia in 1998–2000, and an open-ended national service that UN bodies and human rights organisations have widely linked to large outflows of young people. The UN estimates record net emigration of about 310,000 between 1950 and 1999 and about 475,000 between 2000 and 2023, very large figures for a population that was only 2.2 million in 2000.
The pyramid shows the effect in two ways. First, the sides slope steeply through young adulthood: in 2026 there are about 432,000 people aged 15–19 but only about 186,000 aged 35–39. Part of that contrast is simply growth, since each generation of births was larger than the one before, but emigration of people in their twenties and thirties sharpens it. Second, men are missing at middle age. In 2000 women outnumbered men in every band from 20 to 64, and in 2026 the sex ratio falls from about 101 men per 100 women at ages 30–34 to 95 at 40–44 and 86 at 50–54. War deaths, conscription-related emigration and men’s shorter lives (67.2 years against 71.5 for women) are all plausible contributors, and the chart alone cannot weigh them.
Rapid gains in survival
Behind the migration story is a fast demographic transition. Life expectancy rose from about 33 years in 1950 to about 69 in 2023, and infant mortality fell from about 210 to 27 per 1,000 births. Fertility remained above six children per woman until the 1990s and has since fallen to about 3.6. With births outnumbering deaths almost five to one, the base is still wide, and the 0–4 band remains the largest. The age structure is closest to those of Sao Tome and Principe, Senegal, Liberia, Sierra Leone and neighbouring Ethiopia.
All figures should be treated as approximate: Eritrea has never held a full national census, so the UN series rests on surveys and modelling. Under the medium scenario, which assumes continued but smaller net emigration of about 140,000 between 2026 and 2050, the population grows from about 3.7 million to 5.7 million by 2050 and is still rising in 2100.
What to notice across the years
Distinctive cohorts and turning points
No five-year band under age 80 is more than 10% larger or smaller than both of its neighbours, so Eritrea’s 2026 pyramid has a comparatively smooth profile without sharp bulges or notches.
In the UN medium scenario births outnumber deaths in every year through 2100. Children under 15 outnumber people aged 65 and older in every pyramid year through 2100.
Births, deaths, and migration
A pyramid changes in only three ways: births add to the base, deaths remove people at every age, and migration adds or removes people mainly in young adulthood. In 2026, Eritrea is projected to record 105,398 births (about 289 births a day) and 21,702 deaths, a natural increase of 83,696. Net migration adds −7,520 people, ranking #180 in the net migration rate ranking.
Between 2000 and 2023 the UN estimates 2,278,007 births, 534,854 deaths, and cumulative net migration of −474,871. Over that period the balance of births and deaths moved the total more than migration did. See how migration shapes a pyramid and birth rate versus fertility rate. The medium scenario assumes net migration of −140,820 between 2026 and 2050.
Annual values 1950–2100; dashed lines after 2023 are the UN medium projection. The trend table below lists the values by decade.
Life expectancy and mortality
- Life expectancy, women
- 71.5 years35.4 in 1950
- Life expectancy, men
- 67.2 years31.3 in 1950
- Further years at 65
- 14.9 yearsboth sexes
- Infant mortality
- 24.0per 1,000 births · 210 in 1950
- Under-five mortality
- 31.4per 1,000 births
- Mother’s mean age at birth
- 29.1 yearssex ratio at birth 103.2
Women in Eritrea are projected to live 4.3 years longer than men, which is why the female side of the pyramid widens relative to the other at older ages (see the life expectancy gap ranking). Infant mortality has fallen from 210 to 24.0 deaths per 1,000 live births since 1950, ranking #56 of 237 in the infant mortality ranking (highest first). A mean age at childbearing of 29.1 years sets the spacing between generations, and so how far apart echo cohorts sit in the pyramid.
Median age, fertility rate, and global ranks for Eritrea
The median age of 19.5 years splits the population into two equal halves. A total fertility rate of 3.55 births per woman is above the replacement level of roughly 2.1, and life expectancy at birth is 69.4 years.
These ranks compare all 237 countries and areas in this dataset using the same 2026 UN medium projection. Ranks use the stored source precision, so displayed rounding can make adjacent values look identical; small differences should not be overinterpreted.
| Indicator | 2026 value | Global rank | Ranking direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Population | 3,682,669 | #132 | Largest first |
| Median age | 19.5 years | #205 | Oldest first |
| Fertility rate | 3.55 | #37 | Highest first |
| Annual growth | +2.1% | #40 | Fastest first |
| Life expectancy | 69.4 years | #181 | Highest first |
| Population aged 65+ | 4.3% | #181 | Highest share first |
Largest age groups in Eritrea
The five largest cohorts identify where the 2026 population is concentrated. They can reflect past birth patterns, survival, and migration; the chart alone does not establish which cause dominates.
| Rank | Age group | Population | Share of total | Male / female |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0–4 | 485,125 | 13.2% | 245.4K / 239.7K |
| 2 | 5–9 | 442,236 | 12.0% | 223.3K / 218.9K |
| 3 | 10–14 | 438,500 | 11.9% | 221.1K / 217.4K |
| 4 | 15–19 | 432,448 | 11.7% | 217.6K / 214.8K |
| 5 | 20–24 | 388,657 | 10.6% | 195.2K / 193.5K |
Sex ratio and the balance by age
In the 2026 projection, Eritrea has 1,819,350 males and 1,863,319 females. That is 97.6 males per 100 females, ranking #135 when the dataset is ordered from the highest male-to-female ratio to the lowest.
Males account for 49.4% of the population and females for 50.6%. There are 43,969 more females than males overall. Among people aged 65 and older, the ratio is 73.4 males per 100 females.
The overall balance can conceal large differences by age; how sex ratios change with age explains the usual pattern. The ratio reflects the male/female categories in the UN source and is not a measure of gender identity. Compare all profiles in the sex-ratio ranking.
At birth, 103.2 boys are projected to be born for every 100 girls in 2026, slightly below the typical value of about 105 (compare the sex ratio at birth ranking). The ratio at birth sets the balance at the base of the pyramid; how it changes with age then depends on survival and migration.
How Eritrea has changed since 1950
The population has increased from 814,866 in 1950 to 3,682,669 in 2026, a change of 352%. Over the same span, median age moved from 16.5 to 19.5 years.
The under-15 share changed from 44.4% to 37.1%, while the share aged 65 and older changed from 3.2% to 4.3%. These shifts show why total population growth and age-structure change need to be read separately.
How the population could change by 2050
Under the UN medium scenario, Eritrea’s population is projected to grow by about 55%, reaching 5,696,062 in 2050. The median age changes from 19.5 to 25.0 years.
The 65+ share is projected to rise by 1.5 percentage points to 5.8%. At the same time, the under-15 share is projected at 29.9%. How UN projections work explains the assumptions behind these figures.
The population is still rising at the end of the UN medium projection in 2100, when it reaches 8,444,382. The page therefore does not assign a peak year beyond the available horizon.
Population trend: 1950–2100
Mid-year population for every year. Estimates through 2023; dashed line shows the UN medium projection.
| Year | Population | Median age | Fertility | Life exp. | Births | Deaths | Net migration | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1950 | 814,866 | 16.5 | 6.52 | 33.3 | 36,213 | 24,816 | +148 | +1.4% |
| 1960 | 972,546 | 17.8 | 6.48 | 37.4 | 46,418 | 24,995 | +1,045 | +2.3% |
| 1970 | 1,243,453 | 17.5 | 6.54 | 41.2 | 58,414 | 27,727 | +1,480 | +2.6% |
| 1980 | 1,605,797 | 16.6 | 6.61 | 44.6 | 71,911 | 30,518 | +1,985 | +2.7% |
| 1990 | 2,032,737 | 16.5 | 6.34 | 49.7 | 88,050 | 31,149 | −12,425 | +2.2% |
| 2000 | 2,247,031 | 16.3 | 5.40 | 56.3 | 85,318 | 25,044 | −33,133 | +1.2% |
| 2010 | 2,945,186 | 17.3 | 4.57 | 63.7 | 98,525 | 22,427 | −13,361 | +2.1% |
| 2020 | 3,291,270 | 18.0 | 3.93 | 67.0 | 95,027 | 21,662 | −14,967 | +1.8% |
| 2023 | 3,470,390 | 18.7 | 3.71 | 68.6 | 99,058 | 20,984 | −15,284 | +1.8% |
| 2024* | 3,535,603 | 18.9 | 3.68 | 68.9 | 101,539 | 21,196 | −12,696 | +1.9% |
| 2026* | 3,682,669 | 19.5 | 3.55 | 69.4 | 105,398 | 21,702 | −7,520 | +2.1% |
| 2030* | 4,002,672 | 20.6 | 3.32 | 70.3 | 111,974 | 22,772 | −5,146 | +2.1% |
| 2040* | 4,868,676 | 22.9 | 2.90 | 72.4 | 116,890 | 25,833 | −2,470 | +1.8% |
| 2050* | 5,696,062 | 25.0 | 2.60 | 74.2 | 116,906 | 30,207 | −7,428 | +1.4% |
| 2060* | 6,478,361 | 27.8 | 2.38 | 75.9 | 120,051 | 35,929 | −4,917 | +1.2% |
| 2070* | 7,194,167 | 30.8 | 2.21 | 77.5 | 117,570 | 43,811 | −9,470 | +0.9% |
| 2080* | 7,768,724 | 33.5 | 2.09 | 79.0 | 113,238 | 55,193 | −2,581 | +0.7% |
| 2090* | 8,182,352 | 35.9 | 2.01 | 80.6 | 109,876 | 67,186 | −8,057 | +0.4% |
| 2100* | 8,444,382 | 38.1 | 1.95 | 82.0 | 104,780 | 75,307 | −7,163 | +0.3% |
* 2024 onward is the UN medium projection. Fertility is births per woman; life expectancy is years at birth; births, deaths, and net migration are counts for that calendar year.
Download every year, 1950–2100 (CSV)
2026 population by age and sex
The table provides the counts behind the chart. Age groups are five-year bands, with everyone aged 100 or older combined.
| Age group | Male | Female | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–4 | 245,434 | 239,691 | 485,125 | 13.2% |
| 5–9 | 223,327 | 218,909 | 442,236 | 12.0% |
| 10–14 | 221,105 | 217,395 | 438,500 | 11.9% |
| 15–19 | 217,606 | 214,842 | 432,448 | 11.7% |
| 20–24 | 195,192 | 193,465 | 388,657 | 10.6% |
| 25–29 | 159,923 | 158,522 | 318,445 | 8.6% |
| 30–34 | 120,195 | 119,465 | 239,660 | 6.5% |
| 35–39 | 92,523 | 93,977 | 186,500 | 5.1% |
| 40–44 | 71,693 | 75,483 | 147,176 | 4.0% |
| 45–49 | 64,620 | 72,232 | 136,852 | 3.7% |
| 50–54 | 55,770 | 64,906 | 120,676 | 3.3% |
| 55–59 | 47,382 | 56,631 | 104,013 | 2.8% |
| 60–64 | 37,368 | 46,178 | 83,546 | 2.3% |
| 65–69 | 26,880 | 34,898 | 61,778 | 1.7% |
| 70–74 | 17,915 | 24,600 | 42,515 | 1.2% |
| 75–79 | 12,191 | 16,901 | 29,092 | 0.8% |
| 80–84 | 7,117 | 10,076 | 17,193 | 0.5% |
| 85–89 | 2,557 | 4,029 | 6,586 | 0.2% |
| 90–94 | 520 | 1,002 | 1,522 | 0.0% |
| 95–99 | 35 | 117 | 152 | 0.0% |
| 100+ | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.0% |
Countries with the most similar age structure
These profiles have the 2026 age distributions closest to Eritrea’s, measured by the total difference in the share of the population in each five-year band. Similar shapes can arise from very different histories, so the match is a starting point for comparison, not an explanation.
- Sao Tome and Principe97% overlap · median age 19.7
- Senegal97% overlap · median age 19.8
- Liberia97% overlap · median age 19.0
- Sierra Leone96% overlap · median age 19.9
- Ethiopia96% overlap · median age 19.3
- Kenya96% overlap · median age 20.3
To calculate school-age, working-age, or older groups with other boundaries, use the age-group calculator for Eritrea.
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APA
World Population Pyramid. (2026, October 19). Eritrea Population Pyramid 2026. https://worldpopulationpyramid.com/countries/eritrea/
MLA
“Eritrea Population Pyramid 2026.” World Population Pyramid, 19 Oct. 2026, worldpopulationpyramid.com/countries/eritrea/.
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World Population Pyramid. “Eritrea Population Pyramid 2026.” Last modified October 19, 2026. https://worldpopulationpyramid.com/countries/eritrea/.
Underlying data: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2024). World Population Prospects 2024.
Frequently asked questions
What is the population of Eritrea in 2026?
Under the UN World Population Prospects 2024 medium scenario, Eritrea's population in 2026 is projected at 3,682,669.
What is the median age in Eritrea?
The projected median age in Eritrea in 2026 is 19.5 years: half the population is younger and half is older.
What is the fertility rate in Eritrea?
The projected total fertility rate in 2026 is 3.55 births per woman, above the replacement level of about 2.1 in low-mortality populations.
Is Eritrea's population projected to grow?
Between 2026 and 2050, the UN medium scenario indicates the population will grow by about 55%, from 3.7M to 5.7M.
What share of Eritrea is aged 65 or older?
In 2026, 4.3% of the projected population is aged 65 or older. By 2050, the medium scenario places the share at 5.8%.
How many babies are born in Eritrea each year?
The UN medium scenario projects 105,398 births and 21,702 deaths in 2026, about 289 births a day. Births exceed deaths by 83,696.
What is life expectancy in Eritrea for men and women?
Life expectancy at birth in 2026 is projected at 71.5 years for women and 67.2 years for men, a gap of 4.3 years in favour of women.
Does Eritrea have more immigrants or emigrants?
Eritrea is projected to lose about 7,520 more people through emigration than it gains in 2026. Between 2000 and 2023 the UN estimates cumulative net migration of −474,871.
What is the sex ratio in Eritrea?
The projected 2026 population sex ratio is 97.6 males per 100 females. This all-age ratio is different from the sex ratio at birth and can vary substantially by age.
Sources and notes
- United Nations, DESA, Population Division: World Population Prospects 2024, medium scenario.
- Population values are mid-year figures. Source values published in thousands are converted to people; displayed figures may imply more precision than is appropriate for planning.
- Historical values through 2023 are estimates. Values from 2024 onward are projections.
- Calculations follow the site methodology.