Tajikistan population pyramid 2026
10,978,598 people in 2026 (projected). Tajikistan’s young, broad-based pyramid has a notch at ages 20–24, deepest among men, where small birth cohorts meet labour migration to Russia.
- 2026 population
- 11Mrank 88 of 237
- Median age
- 22.4 yearsoldest rank 182
- Fertility rate
- 2.96births per woman · above replacement
- Structure
- Youthful4.3% age 65+
Tajikistan population pyramid
2026 · Share of total by five-year age group and sex
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The UN series provides historical estimates through 2023. Figures from 2024 onward—including 2026—are medium-scenario projections, not counts or predictions guaranteed to occur.
Tajikistan age distribution in 2026
Children under 15 account for 35.4% of the population, while 4.3% are aged 65 or older. The remaining 60.3% are in the conventional working-age range of 15–64. On these shares, the site classifies Tajikistan’s age structure as youthful; the guide to expansive population pyramids explains what that shape implies.
The total age dependency ratio is 65.9: about 66 people under 15 or 65+ for every 100 people aged 15–64 (58.8 children and 7.1 older people). This is an age-balance indicator, not a literal count of economic dependants per worker.
What shapes Tajikistan’s population pyramid
Soviet-era fertility and its aftermath
Tajikistan had the highest fertility of the Soviet republics, close to seven children per woman around 1970 and still about 5.5 in 1990. The independence years were harsh: the civil war of 1992–97, economic collapse and the departure of many Russians, Germans and other minorities. The UN estimates net emigration of about 570,000 people between 1950 and 1999, and fertility fell to about 3.5 by 2000.
Two features of the pyramid record this history. In 2000 the 15–19 band, born about 1981–85, was about a fifth smaller than the 10–14 band, and the 55–59 band, born during the Second World War, was narrower than the 60–64 band above it, the same wartime deficit seen across the former Soviet Union. In 2026 the clearest irregularity is a notch at ages 20–24, born about 2002–06, about 13% smaller than the bands on either side. It follows the steep decline in fertility of the 1990s, though the chart alone cannot show why those particular birth years are so small.
Where the young men go
The notch is deeper on the male side. At ages 20–24 there are about 92 men for every 100 women, although boys outnumber girls at birth by about 106 to 100. Tajikistan is one of the countries most dependent on labour migration, with large numbers of young men working in Russia, and remittances from them are widely reported to equal a very large share of national income. Many migrants are seasonal or circular and remain counted as residents, so the UN figures of about 450,000 net emigrants in 2000–2023 and a further 520,000 expected by 2050 probably understate how many people are abroad at any moment. The guide to sex ratios by age explains how migration shapes the sex balance of working-age bands.
Still growing at the base
Below the notch the pyramid widens sharply. The bands aged 0–14, born since about 2012, are the largest in the chart, and with fertility still near three children per woman the median age is only about 22; the youngest populations ranking shows how this compares. Its 2026 age structure most resembles those of Ghana, Kiribati and Namibia rather than those of its Central Asian neighbours.
Under the UN medium scenario the population rises from about 11 million in 2026 to 15.6 million in 2050 and is still growing in 2100, when it reaches about 20 million; deaths do not exceed births at any point in the projection.
What to notice across the years
Distinctive cohorts and turning points
Comparing each five-year band with its neighbours picks out the cohorts that break a smooth slope. These irregularities usually record past surges or deficits in births, or migration concentrated at particular ages; the pattern alone does not identify which. The guide to baby booms and echo cohorts explains how to date and interpret them.
| Age band in 2026 | Born about | Feature | Versus neighbouring bands |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20–24 | 2002–2006 | Notch (smaller cohort) | −13% |
In the UN medium scenario births outnumber deaths in every year through 2100. People aged 65 and older are projected to outnumber children under 15 by 2095.
Births, deaths, and migration
A pyramid changes in only three ways: births add to the base, deaths remove people at every age, and migration adds or removes people mainly in young adulthood. In 2026, Tajikistan is projected to record 261,679 births (about 716 births a day) and 50,919 deaths, a natural increase of 210,760. Net migration adds −20,198 people, ranking #178 in the net migration rate ranking.
Between 2000 and 2023 the UN estimates 5,801,891 births, 1,082,749 deaths, and cumulative net migration of −450,821. Over that period the balance of births and deaths moved the total more than migration did. See how migration shapes a pyramid and birth rate versus fertility rate. The medium scenario assumes net migration of −524,814 between 2026 and 2050.
Annual values 1950–2100; dashed lines after 2023 are the UN medium projection. The trend table below lists the values by decade.
Life expectancy and mortality
- Life expectancy, women
- 74.5 years51.4 in 1950
- Life expectancy, men
- 69.9 years47.4 in 1950
- Further years at 65
- 14.4 yearsboth sexes
- Infant mortality
- 19.8per 1,000 births · 150 in 1950
- Under-five mortality
- 24.4per 1,000 births
- Mother’s mean age at birth
- 26.4 yearssex ratio at birth 106.4
Women in Tajikistan are projected to live 4.6 years longer than men, which is why the female side of the pyramid widens relative to the other at older ages (see the life expectancy gap ranking). Infant mortality has fallen from 150 to 19.8 deaths per 1,000 live births since 1950, ranking #62 of 237 in the infant mortality ranking (highest first). A mean age at childbearing of 26.4 years sets the spacing between generations, and so how far apart echo cohorts sit in the pyramid.
Median age, fertility rate, and global ranks for Tajikistan
The median age of 22.4 years splits the population into two equal halves. A total fertility rate of 2.96 births per woman is above the replacement level of roughly 2.1, and life expectancy at birth is 72.2 years.
These ranks compare all 237 countries and areas in this dataset using the same 2026 UN medium projection. Ranks use the stored source precision, so displayed rounding can make adjacent values look identical; small differences should not be overinterpreted.
| Indicator | 2026 value | Global rank | Ranking direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Population | 10,978,598 | #88 | Largest first |
| Median age | 22.4 years | #182 | Oldest first |
| Fertility rate | 2.96 | #58 | Highest first |
| Annual growth | +1.7% | #55 | Fastest first |
| Life expectancy | 72.2 years | #157 | Highest first |
| Population aged 65+ | 4.3% | #181 | Highest share first |
Largest age groups in Tajikistan
The five largest cohorts identify where the 2026 population is concentrated. They can reflect past birth patterns, survival, and migration; the chart alone does not establish which cause dominates.
| Rank | Age group | Population | Share of total | Male / female |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5–9 | 1,312,587 | 12.0% | 672.1K / 640.4K |
| 2 | 0–4 | 1,309,513 | 11.9% | 672.7K / 636.8K |
| 3 | 10–14 | 1,267,129 | 11.5% | 629.7K / 637.4K |
| 4 | 15–19 | 1,040,269 | 9.5% | 518.9K / 521.4K |
| 5 | 25–29 | 896,406 | 8.2% | 437.4K / 459K |
Sex ratio and the balance by age
In the 2026 projection, Tajikistan has 5,402,061 males and 5,576,538 females. That is 96.9 males per 100 females, ranking #153 when the dataset is ordered from the highest male-to-female ratio to the lowest.
Males account for 49.2% of the population and females for 50.8%. There are 174,477 more females than males overall. Among people aged 65 and older, the ratio is 79.3 males per 100 females.
The overall balance can conceal large differences by age; how sex ratios change with age explains the usual pattern. The ratio reflects the male/female categories in the UN source and is not a measure of gender identity. Compare all profiles in the sex-ratio ranking.
At birth, 106.4 boys are projected to be born for every 100 girls in 2026, close to the biological norm of about 105 (compare the sex ratio at birth ranking). The ratio at birth sets the balance at the base of the pyramid; how it changes with age then depends on survival and migration.
How Tajikistan has changed since 1950
The population has increased from 1,528,308 in 1950 to 10,978,598 in 2026, a change of 618%. Over the same span, median age moved from 20.7 to 22.4 years.
The under-15 share changed from 34.9% to 35.4%, while the share aged 65 and older changed from 4.3% to 4.3%. These shifts show why total population growth and age-structure change need to be read separately.
How the population could change by 2050
Under the UN medium scenario, Tajikistan’s population is projected to grow by about 42%, reaching 15,574,642 in 2050. The median age changes from 22.4 to 27.9 years.
The 65+ share is projected to rise by 3.5 percentage points to 7.8%. At the same time, the under-15 share is projected at 27.6%. How UN projections work explains the assumptions behind these figures.
The population is still rising at the end of the UN medium projection in 2100, when it reaches 20,201,583. The page therefore does not assign a peak year beyond the available horizon.
Population trend: 1950–2100
Mid-year population for every year. Estimates through 2023; dashed line shows the UN medium projection.
| Year | Population | Median age | Fertility | Life exp. | Births | Deaths | Net migration | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1950 | 1,528,308 | 20.7 | 5.61 | 49.3 | 64,354 | 26,127 | +23,369 | +4.0% |
| 1960 | 2,112,132 | 20.7 | 6.24 | 52.5 | 100,765 | 35,351 | +2,457 | +3.2% |
| 1970 | 2,936,779 | 16.6 | 6.91 | 56.6 | 124,094 | 38,448 | +5,559 | +3.1% |
| 1980 | 3,995,256 | 17.0 | 6.21 | 58.6 | 162,970 | 45,081 | −5,557 | +2.8% |
| 1990 | 5,398,768 | 17.1 | 5.46 | 61.6 | 232,618 | 54,186 | −41,596 | +2.5% |
| 2000 | 6,284,736 | 17.4 | 3.49 | 63.5 | 182,945 | 46,394 | −13,871 | +1.9% |
| 2010 | 7,652,141 | 19.8 | 3.46 | 68.4 | 244,745 | 43,358 | −33,733 | +2.2% |
| 2020 | 9,749,310 | 21.4 | 3.21 | 68.6 | 276,503 | 57,033 | −3,564 | +2.2% |
| 2023 | 10,389,798 | 21.9 | 3.07 | 71.8 | 271,420 | 47,595 | −19,999 | +2.0% |
| 2024* | 10,590,928 | 22.1 | 3.04 | 71.9 | 268,304 | 48,626 | −21,236 | +1.9% |
| 2026* | 10,978,598 | 22.4 | 2.96 | 72.2 | 261,679 | 50,919 | −20,198 | +1.7% |
| 2030* | 11,733,068 | 22.7 | 2.83 | 72.7 | 263,946 | 56,707 | −20,370 | +1.6% |
| 2040* | 13,713,947 | 25.0 | 2.55 | 74.1 | 299,159 | 75,825 | −21,137 | +1.5% |
| 2050* | 15,574,642 | 27.9 | 2.35 | 75.4 | 282,371 | 94,693 | −22,593 | +1.1% |
| 2060* | 17,119,625 | 30.3 | 2.19 | 76.7 | 282,710 | 114,865 | −20,040 | +0.9% |
| 2070* | 18,442,505 | 32.7 | 2.07 | 78.1 | 273,905 | 138,378 | −21,039 | +0.6% |
| 2080* | 19,352,971 | 35.5 | 1.97 | 79.4 | 252,870 | 158,989 | −21,368 | +0.4% |
| 2090* | 19,937,783 | 38.1 | 1.90 | 80.7 | 241,879 | 176,842 | −20,387 | +0.2% |
| 2100* | 20,201,583 | 40.2 | 1.86 | 81.9 | 225,551 | 200,847 | −19,590 | +0.0% |
* 2024 onward is the UN medium projection. Fertility is births per woman; life expectancy is years at birth; births, deaths, and net migration are counts for that calendar year.
Download every year, 1950–2100 (CSV)
2026 population by age and sex
The table provides the counts behind the chart. Age groups are five-year bands, with everyone aged 100 or older combined.
| Age group | Male | Female | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–4 | 672,683 | 636,830 | 1,309,513 | 11.9% |
| 5–9 | 672,149 | 640,438 | 1,312,587 | 12.0% |
| 10–14 | 629,735 | 637,394 | 1,267,129 | 11.5% |
| 15–19 | 518,886 | 521,383 | 1,040,269 | 9.5% |
| 20–24 | 402,342 | 438,527 | 840,869 | 7.7% |
| 25–29 | 437,437 | 458,969 | 896,406 | 8.2% |
| 30–34 | 404,448 | 422,492 | 826,940 | 7.5% |
| 35–39 | 391,212 | 405,053 | 796,265 | 7.3% |
| 40–44 | 309,969 | 324,382 | 634,351 | 5.8% |
| 45–49 | 237,928 | 252,523 | 490,451 | 4.5% |
| 50–54 | 196,805 | 214,816 | 411,621 | 3.7% |
| 55–59 | 172,836 | 192,540 | 365,376 | 3.3% |
| 60–64 | 147,328 | 168,405 | 315,733 | 2.9% |
| 65–69 | 107,647 | 126,299 | 233,946 | 2.1% |
| 70–74 | 58,382 | 72,310 | 130,692 | 1.2% |
| 75–79 | 25,924 | 37,135 | 63,059 | 0.6% |
| 80–84 | 9,796 | 14,464 | 24,260 | 0.2% |
| 85–89 | 5,215 | 9,481 | 14,696 | 0.1% |
| 90–94 | 1,174 | 2,672 | 3,846 | 0.0% |
| 95–99 | 157 | 402 | 559 | 0.0% |
| 100+ | 7 | 23 | 30 | 0.0% |
Countries with the most similar age structure
These profiles have the 2026 age distributions closest to Tajikistan’s, measured by the total difference in the share of the population in each five-year band. Similar shapes can arise from very different histories, so the match is a starting point for comparison, not an explanation.
- Kiribati98% overlap · median age 23.0
- Namibia97% overlap · median age 21.5
- Ghana97% overlap · median age 21.6
- Gabon97% overlap · median age 21.6
- Equatorial Guinea96% overlap · median age 20.9
- Papua New Guinea96% overlap · median age 23.0
To calculate school-age, working-age, or older groups with other boundaries, use the age-group calculator for Tajikistan.
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APA
World Population Pyramid. (2026, October 19). Tajikistan Population Pyramid 2026. https://worldpopulationpyramid.com/countries/tajikistan/
MLA
“Tajikistan Population Pyramid 2026.” World Population Pyramid, 19 Oct. 2026, worldpopulationpyramid.com/countries/tajikistan/.
Chicago
World Population Pyramid. “Tajikistan Population Pyramid 2026.” Last modified October 19, 2026. https://worldpopulationpyramid.com/countries/tajikistan/.
Underlying data: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2024). World Population Prospects 2024.
Frequently asked questions
What is the population of Tajikistan in 2026?
Under the UN World Population Prospects 2024 medium scenario, Tajikistan's population in 2026 is projected at 10,978,598.
What is the median age in Tajikistan?
The projected median age in Tajikistan in 2026 is 22.4 years: half the population is younger and half is older.
What is the fertility rate in Tajikistan?
The projected total fertility rate in 2026 is 2.96 births per woman, above the replacement level of about 2.1 in low-mortality populations.
Is Tajikistan's population projected to grow?
Between 2026 and 2050, the UN medium scenario indicates the population will grow by about 42%, from 11M to 15.6M.
What share of Tajikistan is aged 65 or older?
In 2026, 4.3% of the projected population is aged 65 or older. By 2050, the medium scenario places the share at 7.8%.
How many babies are born in Tajikistan each year?
The UN medium scenario projects 261,679 births and 50,919 deaths in 2026, about 716 births a day. Births exceed deaths by 210,760.
What is life expectancy in Tajikistan for men and women?
Life expectancy at birth in 2026 is projected at 74.5 years for women and 69.9 years for men, a gap of 4.6 years in favour of women.
Does Tajikistan have more immigrants or emigrants?
Tajikistan is projected to lose about 20,198 more people through emigration than it gains in 2026. Between 2000 and 2023 the UN estimates cumulative net migration of −450,821.
What is the sex ratio in Tajikistan?
The projected 2026 population sex ratio is 96.9 males per 100 females. This all-age ratio is different from the sex ratio at birth and can vary substantially by age.
Sources and notes
- United Nations, DESA, Population Division: World Population Prospects 2024, medium scenario.
- Population values are mid-year figures. Source values published in thousands are converted to people; displayed figures may imply more precision than is appropriate for planning.
- Historical values through 2023 are estimates. Values from 2024 onward are projections.
- Calculations follow the site methodology.