Countries Where Deaths Exceed Births in 2026

2026 medium projection

In these countries and areas more people die than are born each year. Whether the total population still grows then depends on migration.

Countries and areas: 57
Highest-ranked: Vatican City20.3
Rank 9: Bulgaria6.4
End of table: Sweden0.1

Estimate or projection?

The UN series provides historical estimates through 2023. Figures from 2024 onward—including 2026—are medium-scenario projections, not counts or predictions guaranteed to occur.

Complete countries where deaths exceed births in 2026 ranking

Select any country to inspect its full age-by-sex structure and projections.

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Countries Where Deaths Exceed Births in 2026
Rank	Country or area	Region	Natural decrease per 1,000	Deaths minus births
1	Vatican City	Europe	20.3	11
2	Saint Helena	Africa	10.2	52
3	Monaco	Europe	9.1	345
3	Saint Pierre and Miquelon	Northern America	9.1	50
5	Latvia	Europe	7.5	13,917
6	Ukraine	Europe	7.2	285,208
7	Japan	Asia	6.7	817,272
8	Lithuania	Europe	6.5	18,247
9	Belarus	Europe	6.4	57,762
9	Bulgaria	Europe	6.4	42,889
11	Croatia	Europe	6.0	22,822
11	Bosnia and Herzegovina	Europe	6.0	18,663
13	Greece	Europe	5.8	57,576
14	Serbia	Europe	5.7	38,148
15	Montserrat	Latin America and the Caribbean	5.2	23
16	Italy	Europe	5.0	289,782
16	Puerto Rico	Latin America and the Caribbean	5.0	16,102
18	Estonia	Europe	4.8	6,346
19	Hungary	Europe	4.7	45,357
20	United States Virgin Islands	Latin America and the Caribbean	4.6	382
21	Russia	Europe	4.5	655,044
22	Germany	Europe	4.3	352,381
23	Romania	Europe	4.2	79,733
24	Moldova	Europe	4.1	12,182
25	Taiwan	Asia	3.8	86,277
26	Poland	Europe	3.6	135,961
27	Czechia	Europe	3.3	34,479
28	Portugal	Europe	3.2	33,713
29	Finland	Europe	3.1	17,358
30	San Marino	Europe	2.9	96
31	Curaçao	Latin America and the Caribbean	2.8	526
31	Isle of Man	Europe	2.8	237
31	Jersey	Europe	2.8	293
31	Hong Kong	Asia	2.8	21,039
31	Spain	Europe	2.8	133,070
36	South Korea	Asia	2.7	135,799
37	Slovenia	Europe	2.5	5,409
38	North Macedonia	Europe	2.4	4,287
39	Austria	Europe	2.1	19,225
39	Cuba	Latin America and the Caribbean	2.1	23,455
41	China	Asia	2.0	2,856,811
42	Dominica	Latin America and the Caribbean	1.7	115
42	Palau	Oceania	1.7	31
42	Slovakia	Europe	1.7	9,077
45	Bermuda	Northern America	1.5	102
45	Guernsey	Europe	1.5	96
47	Thailand	Asia	1.4	95,794
48	Martinique	Latin America and the Caribbean	1.3	442
48	Saint Barthélemy	Latin America and the Caribbean	1.3	15
50	Belgium	Europe	1.2	15,044
51	Georgia	Asia	0.9	3,618
51	Montenegro	Europe	0.9	579
53	Aruba	Latin America and the Caribbean	0.7	83
54	Mauritius	Africa	0.5	679
55	Uruguay	Latin America and the Caribbean	0.3	858
56	Malta	Europe	0.2	115
57	Sweden	Europe	0.1	1,351

What this ranking measures—and what it does not

Definition

Natural change is births minus deaths. This table lists every country or area where it is negative in the reference year, ranked by the crude death rate minus the crude birth rate.

Why it matters

Natural decrease is the signature of a constrictive pyramid: small young cohorts and large older ones. Once it begins it usually persists for decades, because the cohorts that would become parents are already small.

Read with care

Natural decrease is not the same as population decline: net immigration can more than offset it. Crude rates also depend on age structure, not only on fertility and health.

What stands out in this comparison

Vatican City leads with 20.3, while Bulgaria is at rank 9 with 6.4. At the other end of the complete table, Sweden has 0.1.

Those positions describe this particular indicator, definition, and reference period. They do not imply that every country near the top has the same population pyramid or demographic path. Open the profiles to compare the underlying cohorts.

First five

Vatican City — rank 1, 20.3; deaths minus births 11.
Saint Helena — rank 2, 10.2; deaths minus births 52.
Monaco — rank 3, 9.1; deaths minus births 345.
Saint Pierre and Miquelon — rank 3, 9.1; deaths minus births 50.
Latvia — rank 5, 7.5; deaths minus births 13,917.

Other end of the table

Sweden — rank 57, 0.1; deaths minus births 1,351.
Malta — rank 56, 0.2; deaths minus births 115.
Uruguay — rank 55, 0.3; deaths minus births 858.
Mauritius — rank 54, 0.5; deaths minus births 679.
Aruba — rank 53, 0.7; deaths minus births 83.

Questions about this ranking

Which country or area ranks first for natural decrease per 1,000?

Vatican City ranks first in this comparison with 20.3. The table uses 2026 medium projection from UN World Population Prospects 2024.

Which values are estimates and which are projections?

In World Population Prospects 2024, historical estimates run through 2023 and values from 2024 onward are projections. The peak-year table labels historical and projected results separately.

Why might another source show a different rank?

Sources can use different reference dates, revisions, country definitions, estimation methods, or projection scenarios. Close ranks can also change after revisions.