Moldova population pyramid 2026
2,961,253 people in 2026 (projected). Moldova has lost about a third of its population since 1991, and its pyramid shows deep post-Soviet and wartime notches and only 85 men per 100 women.
- 2026 population
- 3Mrank 139 of 237
- Median age
- 39.1 yearsoldest rank 69
- Fertility rate
- 1.72births per woman · below replacement
- Structure
- Transitional17.4% age 65+
Moldova population pyramid
2026 · Share of total by five-year age group and sex
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The UN series provides historical estimates through 2023. Figures from 2024 onward—including 2026—are medium-scenario projections, not counts or predictions guaranteed to occur.
Moldova age distribution in 2026
Children under 15 account for 19.2% of the population, while 17.4% are aged 65 or older. The remaining 63.3% are in the conventional working-age range of 15–64. On these shares, the site classifies Moldova’s age structure as transitional; the guide to population pyramid types explains what that shape implies.
The total age dependency ratio is 57.9: about 58 people under 15 or 65+ for every 100 people aged 15–64 (30.4 children and 27.5 older people). This is an age-balance indicator, not a literal count of economic dependants per worker.
What shapes Moldova’s population pyramid
Notches from war and from independence
Moldova’s pyramid is unusually jagged. The oldest scar dates from the 1940s: in 1950 the 5–9 band, born during the Second World War, was narrower than the bands on either side, and the cohorts born in the war and the famine of 1946–47 now form a sharp notch at ages 80–84, less than half the size of the 75–79 band. The postwar recovery shows as a bulge at 65–69, born about 1957–61.
The late Soviet years produced another large generation: the 35–39 band, born 1987–91, is about 13% larger than its neighbours and, with 40–44, the widest in the 2026 pyramid. After independence in 1991 births fell steeply, and fertility dropped from about 2.4 in 1990 to 1.5 in 2000. The cohorts born in 1997–2001, now aged 25–29, form a notch about 20% smaller than the bands around them, deepened by the emigration of young adults. Because this generation is small, so is the number of parents today, and the 0–4 band in 2026 is about 30% smaller than the 10–14 bulge born in 2012–16.
Emigration and a missing male population
Moldova’s population peaked at about 4.5 million in 1991 and is about 3 million in 2026. Births and deaths were roughly equal between 2000 and 2023, so almost all of the decline came from migration: the UN estimates net emigration of about 1.2 million people over that period, to Russia, Italy and other EU countries among others. Deaths first exceeded births in 2000, and in 2026 they do so by about 12,000.
At older ages the pyramid is strongly lopsided. Men live about nine years less than women, among the largest gaps in Europe, and there are only about 57 men per 100 women at ages 70–74 and 36 at 80–84. The overall sex ratio of about 85 is among the lowest in the sex ratio ranking, comparable to Russia. In 2026 Moldova’s age structure most resembles those of Georgia, Russia, Armenia, Belarus and Montenegro.
Under the medium scenario the population falls to about 2.4 million in 2050 and 1.5 million in 2100, roughly a third of its peak, placing Moldova among the largest population declines by 2050.
What to notice across the years
Distinctive cohorts and turning points
Comparing each five-year band with its neighbours picks out the cohorts that break a smooth slope. These irregularities usually record past surges or deficits in births, or migration concentrated at particular ages; the pattern alone does not identify which. The guide to baby booms and echo cohorts explains how to date and interpret them.
| Age band in 2026 | Born about | Feature | Versus neighbouring bands |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25–29 | 1997–2001 | Notch (smaller cohort) | −20% |
| 65–69 | 1957–1961 | Bulge (larger cohort) | +18% |
| 10–14 | 2012–2016 | Bulge (larger cohort) | +16% |
| 35–39 | 1987–1991 | Bulge (larger cohort) | +13% |
Deaths have exceeded births every year since 2018; they also did so in 2000, but births then outnumbered deaths again. People aged 65 and older are projected to outnumber children under 15 by 2030.
Births, deaths, and migration
A pyramid changes in only three ways: births add to the base, deaths remove people at every age, and migration adds or removes people mainly in young adulthood. In 2026, Moldova is projected to record 29,962 births (about 82 births a day) and 42,144 deaths, a natural decrease of 12,182. Net migration adds −16,732 people, ranking #219 in the net migration rate ranking.
Between 2000 and 2023 the UN estimates 1,128,331 births, 1,097,546 deaths, and cumulative net migration of −1,234,510. Over that period migration moved the total more than the balance of births and deaths did. See how migration shapes a pyramid and birth rate versus fertility rate. The medium scenario assumes net migration of −289,477 between 2026 and 2050.
Annual values 1950–2100; dashed lines after 2023 are the UN medium projection. The trend table below lists the values by decade.
Life expectancy and mortality
- Life expectancy, women
- 75.9 years57.3 in 1950
- Life expectancy, men
- 67.0 years50.4 in 1950
- Further years at 65
- 14.8 yearsboth sexes
- Infant mortality
- 9.3per 1,000 births · 102 in 1950
- Under-five mortality
- 11.2per 1,000 births
- Mother’s mean age at birth
- 28.3 yearssex ratio at birth 106.2
Women in Moldova are projected to live 8.9 years longer than men, which is why the female side of the pyramid widens relative to the other at older ages (see the life expectancy gap ranking). Infant mortality has fallen from 102 to 9.3 deaths per 1,000 live births since 1950, ranking #121 of 237 in the infant mortality ranking (highest first). A mean age at childbearing of 28.3 years sets the spacing between generations, and so how far apart echo cohorts sit in the pyramid.
Median age, fertility rate, and global ranks for Moldova
The median age of 39.1 years splits the population into two equal halves. A total fertility rate of 1.72 births per woman is below the replacement level of roughly 2.1, and life expectancy at birth is 71.6 years.
These ranks compare all 237 countries and areas in this dataset using the same 2026 UN medium projection. Ranks use the stored source precision, so displayed rounding can make adjacent values look identical; small differences should not be overinterpreted.
| Indicator | 2026 value | Global rank | Ranking direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Population | 2,961,253 | #139 | Largest first |
| Median age | 39.1 years | #69 | Oldest first |
| Fertility rate | 1.72 | #134 | Highest first |
| Annual growth | -1.0% | #229 | Fastest first |
| Life expectancy | 71.6 years | #165 | Highest first |
| Population aged 65+ | 17.4% | #67 | Highest share first |
Largest age groups in Moldova
The five largest cohorts identify where the 2026 population is concentrated. They can reflect past birth patterns, survival, and migration; the chart alone does not establish which cause dominates.
| Rank | Age group | Population | Share of total | Male / female |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 35–39 | 236,197 | 8.0% | 116.4K / 119.8K |
| 2 | 40–44 | 232,599 | 7.9% | 112.7K / 119.9K |
| 3 | 10–14 | 223,463 | 7.5% | 115K / 108.5K |
| 4 | 45–49 | 197,094 | 6.7% | 91.9K / 105.2K |
| 5 | 65–69 | 196,030 | 6.6% | 77.8K / 118.3K |
Sex ratio and the balance by age
In the 2026 projection, Moldova has 1,361,282 males and 1,599,972 females. That is 85.1 males per 100 females, ranking #234 when the dataset is ordered from the highest male-to-female ratio to the lowest.
Males account for 46.0% of the population and females for 54.0%. There are 238,690 more females than males overall. Among people aged 65 and older, the ratio is 54.2 males per 100 females.
The overall balance can conceal large differences by age; how sex ratios change with age explains the usual pattern. The ratio reflects the male/female categories in the UN source and is not a measure of gender identity. Compare all profiles in the sex-ratio ranking.
At birth, 106.2 boys are projected to be born for every 100 girls in 2026, close to the biological norm of about 105 (compare the sex ratio at birth ranking). The ratio at birth sets the balance at the base of the pyramid; how it changes with age then depends on survival and migration.
How Moldova has changed since 1950
The population has increased from 2,528,360 in 1950 to 2,961,253 in 2026, a change of 17%. Over the same span, median age moved from 22.7 to 39.1 years.
The under-15 share changed from 32.1% to 19.2%, while the share aged 65 and older changed from 4.9% to 17.4%. These shifts show why total population growth and age-structure change need to be read separately.
How the population could change by 2050
Under the UN medium scenario, Moldova’s population is projected to decline by about 21%, reaching 2,351,809 in 2050. The median age changes from 39.1 to 40.7 years.
The 65+ share is projected to rise by 4.2 percentage points to 21.6%. At the same time, the under-15 share is projected at 16.7%. How UN projections work explains the assumptions behind these figures.
The annual UN series reaches its highest estimated population of 4,456,608 in 1991. Historical population totals are estimates rather than exact head counts. Compare timing across countries in the population peak ranking.
Population trend: 1950–2100
Mid-year population for every year. Estimates through 2023; dashed line shows the UN medium projection.
| Year | Population | Median age | Fertility | Life exp. | Births | Deaths | Net migration | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1950 | 2,528,360 | 22.7 | 3.49 | 54.0 | 79,371 | 37,492 | +1,286 | +1.7% |
| 1960 | 3,076,166 | 23.5 | 3.31 | 59.4 | 88,752 | 34,414 | +13,697 | +2.2% |
| 1970 | 3,643,517 | 25.6 | 2.56 | 62.4 | 72,524 | 39,173 | +606 | +0.9% |
| 1980 | 4,048,713 | 26.6 | 2.38 | 65.2 | 86,679 | 41,757 | −3,693 | +1.0% |
| 1990 | 4,451,148 | 28.9 | 2.39 | 67.9 | 82,690 | 44,090 | −30,053 | +0.2% |
| 2000 | 4,234,967 | 31.0 | 1.50 | 67.5 | 49,582 | 50,054 | −43,854 | -1.1% |
| 2010 | 3,631,992 | 33.6 | 1.70 | 69.9 | 53,699 | 44,237 | −84,039 | -2.0% |
| 2020 | 3,069,131 | 36.8 | 1.77 | 69.9 | 37,065 | 45,297 | −33,405 | -1.4% |
| 2023 | 3,067,070 | 37.8 | 1.73 | 71.2 | 32,986 | 41,730 | −18,570 | -0.9% |
| 2024* | 3,034,961 | 38.1 | 1.73 | 71.3 | 32,140 | 41,953 | −27,088 | -1.2% |
| 2026* | 2,961,253 | 39.1 | 1.72 | 71.6 | 29,962 | 42,144 | −16,732 | -1.0% |
| 2030* | 2,845,242 | 40.8 | 1.72 | 72.2 | 27,903 | 42,573 | −14,612 | -1.0% |
| 2040* | 2,568,810 | 42.9 | 1.71 | 73.6 | 27,950 | 42,188 | −10,412 | -1.0% |
| 2050* | 2,351,809 | 40.7 | 1.70 | 75.0 | 25,568 | 38,131 | −7,718 | -0.9% |
| 2060* | 2,134,308 | 43.4 | 1.70 | 76.4 | 18,711 | 34,471 | −6,950 | -1.1% |
| 2070* | 1,925,278 | 45.5 | 1.68 | 77.8 | 18,194 | 31,887 | −5,161 | -1.0% |
| 2080* | 1,764,312 | 44.8 | 1.68 | 79.3 | 17,303 | 27,500 | −4,154 | -0.8% |
| 2090* | 1,626,540 | 46.0 | 1.68 | 80.6 | 13,594 | 24,269 | −2,868 | -0.8% |
| 2100* | 1,487,721 | 48.3 | 1.67 | 81.9 | 12,610 | 24,047 | −2,296 | -0.9% |
* 2024 onward is the UN medium projection. Fertility is births per woman; life expectancy is years at birth; births, deaths, and net migration are counts for that calendar year.
Download every year, 1950–2100 (CSV)
2026 population by age and sex
The table provides the counts behind the chart. Age groups are five-year bands, with everyone aged 100 or older combined.
| Age group | Male | Female | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–4 | 79,252 | 74,469 | 153,721 | 5.2% |
| 5–9 | 99,250 | 93,144 | 192,394 | 6.5% |
| 10–14 | 114,973 | 108,490 | 223,463 | 7.5% |
| 15–19 | 95,766 | 97,409 | 193,175 | 6.5% |
| 20–24 | 77,228 | 78,735 | 155,963 | 5.3% |
| 25–29 | 67,118 | 68,773 | 135,891 | 4.6% |
| 30–34 | 89,809 | 95,466 | 185,275 | 6.3% |
| 35–39 | 116,438 | 119,759 | 236,197 | 8.0% |
| 40–44 | 112,737 | 119,862 | 232,599 | 7.9% |
| 45–49 | 91,909 | 105,185 | 197,094 | 6.7% |
| 50–54 | 83,909 | 101,966 | 185,875 | 6.3% |
| 55–59 | 75,074 | 95,569 | 170,643 | 5.8% |
| 60–64 | 76,351 | 106,521 | 182,872 | 6.2% |
| 65–69 | 77,754 | 118,276 | 196,030 | 6.6% |
| 70–74 | 54,604 | 95,001 | 149,605 | 5.1% |
| 75–79 | 32,888 | 65,969 | 98,857 | 3.3% |
| 80–84 | 10,015 | 27,477 | 37,492 | 1.3% |
| 85–89 | 4,794 | 18,858 | 23,652 | 0.8% |
| 90–94 | 1,207 | 7,063 | 8,270 | 0.3% |
| 95–99 | 190 | 1,706 | 1,896 | 0.1% |
| 100+ | 15 | 277 | 292 | 0.0% |
Countries with the most similar age structure
These profiles have the 2026 age distributions closest to Moldova’s, measured by the total difference in the share of the population in each five-year band. Similar shapes can arise from very different histories, so the match is a starting point for comparison, not an explanation.
- Georgia96% overlap · median age 37.6
- Russia96% overlap · median age 40.7
- Armenia95% overlap · median age 37.2
- Belarus95% overlap · median age 41.8
- Montenegro95% overlap · median age 40.4
- North Macedonia94% overlap · median age 41.4
To calculate school-age, working-age, or older groups with other boundaries, use the age-group calculator for Moldova.
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APA
World Population Pyramid. (2026, October 19). Moldova Population Pyramid 2026. https://worldpopulationpyramid.com/countries/moldova/
MLA
“Moldova Population Pyramid 2026.” World Population Pyramid, 19 Oct. 2026, worldpopulationpyramid.com/countries/moldova/.
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World Population Pyramid. “Moldova Population Pyramid 2026.” Last modified October 19, 2026. https://worldpopulationpyramid.com/countries/moldova/.
Underlying data: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2024). World Population Prospects 2024.
Frequently asked questions
What is the population of Moldova in 2026?
Under the UN World Population Prospects 2024 medium scenario, Moldova's population in 2026 is projected at 2,961,253.
What is the median age in Moldova?
The projected median age in Moldova in 2026 is 39.1 years: half the population is younger and half is older.
What is the fertility rate in Moldova?
The projected total fertility rate in 2026 is 1.72 births per woman, below the replacement level of about 2.1 in low-mortality populations.
Is Moldova's population projected to grow?
Between 2026 and 2050, the UN medium scenario indicates the population will decline by about 21%, from 3M to 2.4M.
What share of Moldova is aged 65 or older?
In 2026, 17.4% of the projected population is aged 65 or older. By 2050, the medium scenario places the share at 21.6%.
How many babies are born in Moldova each year?
The UN medium scenario projects 29,962 births and 42,144 deaths in 2026, about 82 births a day. Deaths exceed births by 12,182.
What is life expectancy in Moldova for men and women?
Life expectancy at birth in 2026 is projected at 75.9 years for women and 67.0 years for men, a gap of 8.9 years in favour of women.
Does Moldova have more immigrants or emigrants?
Moldova is projected to lose about 16,732 more people through emigration than it gains in 2026. Between 2000 and 2023 the UN estimates cumulative net migration of −1,234,510.
What is the sex ratio in Moldova?
The projected 2026 population sex ratio is 85.1 males per 100 females. This all-age ratio is different from the sex ratio at birth and can vary substantially by age.
Sources and notes
- United Nations, DESA, Population Division: World Population Prospects 2024, medium scenario.
- Population values are mid-year figures. Source values published in thousands are converted to people; displayed figures may imply more precision than is appropriate for planning.
- Historical values through 2023 are estimates. Values from 2024 onward are projections.
- Calculations follow the site methodology.