Largest Population Declines by 2050

2026 medium projection

See where the UN medium scenario projects the greatest reduction in the number of residents—not merely the fastest percentage decline.

Countries and areas: 74
Highest-ranked: China−152,624,996
Rank 10: Taiwan−3,576,692
End of table: Northern Mariana Islands−150

Estimate or projection?

The UN series provides historical estimates through 2023. Figures from 2024 onward—including 2026—are medium-scenario projections, not counts or predictions guaranteed to occur.

Complete largest population declines by 2050 ranking

Select any country to inspect its full age-by-sex structure and projections.

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Largest Population Declines by 2050
Rank	Country or area	Region	Change by 2050	2050 population
1	China	Asia	−152,624,996	1,260,289,093
2	Japan	Asia	−17,304,564	105,123,167
3	Ukraine	Europe	−7,545,716	31,990,132
4	Russia	Europe	−7,261,683	136,132,775
5	Italy	Europe	−7,035,068	51,891,098
6	South Korea	Asia	−6,457,254	45,143,134
7	Germany	Europe	−5,349,645	78,294,613
8	Thailand	Asia	−5,176,879	66,382,735
9	Poland	Europe	−5,029,092	32,814,096
10	Taiwan	Asia	−3,576,692	19,434,600
11	Spain	Europe	−2,922,235	44,928,558
12	Romania	Europe	−2,773,339	16,027,266
13	Cuba	Latin America and the Caribbean	−1,510,659	9,382,000
14	Belarus	Europe	−1,483,472	7,453,546
15	Hong Kong	Asia	−1,287,983	6,090,619
16	Bulgaria	Europe	−1,265,443	5,402,217
17	Serbia	Europe	−1,109,094	5,532,870
18	Greece	Europe	−1,085,046	8,812,070
19	Hungary	Europe	−860,471	8,725,347
20	North Korea	Asia	−846,564	25,787,127
21	Puerto Rico	Latin America and the Caribbean	−718,694	2,503,994
22	Czechia	Europe	−702,236	9,825,544
23	Bosnia and Herzegovina	Europe	−659,075	2,455,167
24	Portugal	Europe	−625,092	9,770,270
25	Moldova	Europe	−609,444	2,351,809
26	Croatia	Europe	−588,185	3,234,160
27	Lithuania	Europe	−538,564	2,258,774
28	Slovakia	Europe	−514,854	4,936,488
29	Albania	Europe	−510,859	2,240,166
30	Armenia	Asia	−435,708	2,495,207
31	Austria	Europe	−382,934	8,724,332
32	Jamaica	Latin America and the Caribbean	−378,464	2,454,940
33	Latvia	Europe	−322,125	1,513,810
34	North Macedonia	Europe	−291,374	1,512,688
35	Finland	Europe	−270,094	5,351,645
36	Mauritius	Africa	−157,862	1,107,197
37	Estonia	Europe	−156,795	1,174,267
38	Georgia	Asia	−140,628	3,664,014
39	Slovenia	Europe	−133,021	1,981,553
40	Uruguay	Latin America and the Caribbean	−128,183	3,254,354
41	Trinidad and Tobago	Latin America and the Caribbean	−113,468	1,399,800
42	Montenegro	Europe	−92,938	533,295
43	Martinique	Latin America and the Caribbean	−55,641	282,070
44	Macao	Asia	−54,328	668,860
45	Guadeloupe	Latin America and the Caribbean	−46,135	326,318
46	Kosovo	Europe	−23,373	1,643,619
47	Barbados	Latin America and the Caribbean	−18,508	264,216
48	Malta	Europe	−13,289	535,722
49	United States Virgin Islands	Latin America and the Caribbean	−12,174	71,226
50	Curaçao	Latin America and the Caribbean	−11,942	173,498
51	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines	Latin America and the Caribbean	−10,302	88,942
52	Marshall Islands	Oceania	−9,880	25,195
53	Saint Lucia	Latin America and the Caribbean	−8,408	172,080
54	Aruba	Latin America and the Caribbean	−8,162	100,002
55	American Samoa	Oceania	−7,773	37,545
56	Bermuda	Northern America	−7,522	56,937
57	Isle of Man	Europe	−6,084	77,970
58	Greenland	Northern America	−5,731	49,898
59	Saint Martin (French part)	Latin America and the Caribbean	−5,103	18,795
60	Grenada	Latin America and the Caribbean	−4,118	113,244
61	Cook Islands	Oceania	−3,489	9,337
62	Saint Kitts and Nevis	Latin America and the Caribbean	−2,743	44,249
63	Dominica	Latin America and the Caribbean	−2,319	63,192
64	Palau	Oceania	−2,096	15,518
65	Guernsey	Europe	−1,810	62,800
66	Andorra	Europe	−1,558	82,195
67	Monaco	Europe	−1,330	36,757
68	Saint Pierre and Miquelon	Northern America	−1,255	4,258
69	Saint Helena	Africa	−1,180	3,968
70	Wallis and Futuna Islands	Oceania	−965	10,148
71	Montserrat	Latin America and the Caribbean	−636	3,692
72	Falkland Islands (Malvinas)	Latin America and the Caribbean	−289	3,176
73	Anguilla	Latin America and the Caribbean	−265	14,552
74	Northern Mariana Islands	Oceania	−150	42,764

What this ranking measures—and what it does not

Definition

Absolute decline subtracts the 2026 projected total from the 2050 total and ranks negative changes by their size in people.

Why it matters

A large numerical decline can reshape labour supply, regional settlement, housing, schools, and care needs even when the annual percentage change appears modest.

Read with care

Future migration, fertility responses, conflict, and policy can alter the trajectory. A national decline can coexist with growth in particular cities or age groups.

What stands out in this comparison

China leads with −152,624,996, while Taiwan is at rank 10 with −3,576,692. At the other end of the complete table, Northern Mariana Islands has −150.

Those positions describe this particular indicator, definition, and reference period. They do not imply that every country near the top has the same population pyramid or demographic path. Open the profiles to compare the underlying cohorts.

First five

China — rank 1, −152,624,996; 2050 population 1,260,289,093.
Japan — rank 2, −17,304,564; 2050 population 105,123,167.
Ukraine — rank 3, −7,545,716; 2050 population 31,990,132.
Russia — rank 4, −7,261,683; 2050 population 136,132,775.
Italy — rank 5, −7,035,068; 2050 population 51,891,098.

Other end of the table

Northern Mariana Islands — rank 74, −150; 2050 population 42,764.
Anguilla — rank 73, −265; 2050 population 14,552.
Falkland Islands (Malvinas) — rank 72, −289; 2050 population 3,176.
Montserrat — rank 71, −636; 2050 population 3,692.
Wallis and Futuna Islands — rank 70, −965; 2050 population 10,148.

Questions about this ranking

Which country or area ranks first for change by 2050?

China ranks first in this comparison with −152,624,996. The table uses 2026 medium projection from UN World Population Prospects 2024.

Which values are estimates and which are projections?

In World Population Prospects 2024, historical estimates run through 2023 and values from 2024 onward are projections. The peak-year table labels historical and projected results separately.

Why might another source show a different rank?

Sources can use different reference dates, revisions, country definitions, estimation methods, or projection scenarios. Close ranks can also change after revisions.