Estonia population pyramid 2026
1,331,062 people in 2026 (projected). Estonia’s pyramid zigzags between a large late-Soviet generation, a deep 1990s trough and a smaller rebound born around 2007–11, above a shrinking base.
- 2026 population
- 1.3Mrank 158 of 237
- Median age
- 43.2 yearsoldest rank 38
- Fertility rate
- 1.38births per woman · below replacement
- Structure
- Older22.3% age 65+
Estonia population pyramid
2026 · Share of total by five-year age group and sex
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The UN series provides historical estimates through 2023. Figures from 2024 onward—including 2026—are medium-scenario projections, not counts or predictions guaranteed to occur.
Estonia age distribution in 2026
Children under 15 account for 14.9% of the population, while 22.3% are aged 65 or older. The remaining 62.8% are in the conventional working-age range of 15–64. On these shares, the site classifies Estonia’s age structure as older; the guide to constrictive population pyramids explains what that shape implies.
The total age dependency ratio is 59.1: about 59 people under 15 or 65+ for every 100 people aged 15–64 (23.7 children and 35.4 older people). This is an age-balance indicator, not a literal count of economic dependants per worker.
What shapes Estonia’s population pyramid
War, deportation and flight
Estonia’s 1950 pyramid is lopsided. Women outnumber men at every age above 15, and at 50–54 there are only about 55 men per 100 women. The Second World War, the Soviet deportations of 1941 and 1949, and the flight of tens of thousands of Estonians to the West in 1944 all cut deeply into the population, and men were hit especially hard. In the following decades the Soviet period brought substantial immigration from other parts of the USSR, and the UN records net migration of about +120,000 for 1950–99 even after the emigration that followed independence in 1991.
The 1990s collapse and two waves of births
Fertility hovered around two children per woman from the 1960s to 1990, when the population peaked at about 1.57 million. It then fell to about 1.35 by 2000, and in 1991 deaths outnumbered births for the first time; natural decrease has been the norm since. The 2026 pyramid shows the turning point vividly. The 35–39 band, born in 1987–91 at the end of the Soviet era, is about 17% larger than its neighbours and the largest in the country. The 25–29 band, born in 1997–2001, is about 12% smaller than its neighbours.
A second bulge at 15–19, born around 2007–11, coincided with a recovery in fertility to about 1.7 in 2010, a rise widely linked to the generous earnings-related parental benefit introduced in 2004. Fertility has since fallen back to about 1.35, and in 2026 the 0–4 band is the smallest under age 80. As the small cohorts born around 2000 move into their thirties, that narrow base is likely to persist, since there are fewer potential parents.
Eight years between women and men
Women in Estonia live almost eight years longer than men (83.4 against 75.6 years in 2026), one of the larger gaps in Europe. The male side of the pyramid thins quickly after 60: there are 65 men per 100 women at 70–74 and 44 at 80–84. The overall ratio is about 91 men per 100 women.
Under the medium scenario the population declines slowly, to about 1.17 million by 2050 and 0.83 million by 2100, with net migration close to zero. Estonia’s structure is most similar to Latvia, Slovenia and Czechia, and Lithuania shows a comparable post-1990 decline; the population peak year ranking shows how early Estonia peaked compared with most countries.
What to notice across the years
Distinctive cohorts and turning points
Comparing each five-year band with its neighbours picks out the cohorts that break a smooth slope. These irregularities usually record past surges or deficits in births, or migration concentrated at particular ages; the pattern alone does not identify which. The guide to baby booms and echo cohorts explains how to date and interpret them.
| Age band in 2026 | Born about | Feature | Versus neighbouring bands |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35–39 | 1987–1991 | Bulge (larger cohort) | +17% |
| 15–19 | 2007–2011 | Bulge (larger cohort) | +13% |
| 25–29 | 1997–2001 | Notch (smaller cohort) | −12% |
Deaths have exceeded births every year since 2011; they also did so in 1991, but births then outnumbered deaths again. People aged 65 and older came to outnumber children under 15 between 2000 and 2005.
Births, deaths, and migration
A pyramid changes in only three ways: births add to the base, deaths remove people at every age, and migration adds or removes people mainly in young adulthood. In 2026, Estonia is projected to record 10,156 births (about 28 births a day) and 16,502 deaths, a natural decrease of 6,346. Net migration adds −716 people, ranking #133 in the net migration rate ranking.
Between 2000 and 2023 the UN estimates 333,320 births, 397,534 deaths, and cumulative net migration of +30,208. Over that period the balance of births and deaths moved the total more than migration did. See how migration shapes a pyramid and birth rate versus fertility rate. The medium scenario assumes net migration of +568 between 2026 and 2050.
Annual values 1950–2100; dashed lines after 2023 are the UN medium projection. The trend table below lists the values by decade.
Life expectancy and mortality
- Life expectancy, women
- 83.4 years69.6 in 1950
- Life expectancy, men
- 75.6 years62.1 in 1950
- Further years at 65
- 19.3 yearsboth sexes
- Infant mortality
- 1.6per 1,000 births · 42 in 1950
- Under-five mortality
- 2.1per 1,000 births
- Mother’s mean age at birth
- 31.3 yearssex ratio at birth 106.1
Women in Estonia are projected to live 7.8 years longer than men, which is why the female side of the pyramid widens relative to the other at older ages (see the life expectancy gap ranking). Infant mortality has fallen from 42 to 1.6 deaths per 1,000 live births since 1950, ranking #230 of 237 in the infant mortality ranking (highest first). A mean age at childbearing of 31.3 years sets the spacing between generations, and so how far apart echo cohorts sit in the pyramid.
Median age, fertility rate, and global ranks for Estonia
The median age of 43.2 years splits the population into two equal halves. A total fertility rate of 1.38 births per woman is below the replacement level of roughly 2.1, and life expectancy at birth is 79.6 years.
These ranks compare all 237 countries and areas in this dataset using the same 2026 UN medium projection. Ranks use the stored source precision, so displayed rounding can make adjacent values look identical; small differences should not be overinterpreted.
| Indicator | 2026 value | Global rank | Ranking direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Population | 1,331,062 | #158 | Largest first |
| Median age | 43.2 years | #38 | Oldest first |
| Fertility rate | 1.38 | #196 | Highest first |
| Annual growth | -0.5% | #207 | Fastest first |
| Life expectancy | 79.6 years | #65 | Highest first |
| Population aged 65+ | 22.3% | #26 | Highest share first |
Largest age groups in Estonia
The five largest cohorts identify where the 2026 population is concentrated. They can reflect past birth patterns, survival, and migration; the chart alone does not establish which cause dominates.
| Rank | Age group | Population | Share of total | Male / female |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 35–39 | 101,982 | 7.7% | 53.8K / 48.2K |
| 2 | 40–44 | 98,759 | 7.4% | 51.3K / 47.5K |
| 3 | 45–49 | 92,859 | 7.0% | 47.8K / 45.1K |
| 4 | 50–54 | 92,058 | 6.9% | 46.5K / 45.6K |
| 5 | 55–59 | 86,334 | 6.5% | 42K / 44.3K |
Sex ratio and the balance by age
In the 2026 projection, Estonia has 634,325 males and 696,737 females. That is 91.0 males per 100 females, ranking #210 when the dataset is ordered from the highest male-to-female ratio to the lowest.
Males account for 47.7% of the population and females for 52.3%. There are 62,412 more females than males overall. Among people aged 65 and older, the ratio is 56.7 males per 100 females.
The overall balance can conceal large differences by age; how sex ratios change with age explains the usual pattern. The ratio reflects the male/female categories in the UN source and is not a measure of gender identity. Compare all profiles in the sex-ratio ranking.
At birth, 106.1 boys are projected to be born for every 100 girls in 2026, close to the biological norm of about 105 (compare the sex ratio at birth ranking). The ratio at birth sets the balance at the base of the pyramid; how it changes with age then depends on survival and migration.
How Estonia has changed since 1950
The population has increased from 1,102,042 in 1950 to 1,331,062 in 2026, a change of 21%. Over the same span, median age moved from 29.0 to 43.2 years.
The under-15 share changed from 25.4% to 14.9%, while the share aged 65 and older changed from 10.6% to 22.3%. These shifts show why total population growth and age-structure change need to be read separately.
How the population could change by 2050
Under the UN medium scenario, Estonia’s population is projected to decline by about 12%, reaching 1,174,267 in 2050. The median age changes from 43.2 to 48.4 years.
The 65+ share is projected to rise by 7.5 percentage points to 29.8%. At the same time, the under-15 share is projected at 13.1%. How UN projections work explains the assumptions behind these figures.
The annual UN series reaches its highest estimated population of 1,570,303 in 1990. Historical population totals are estimates rather than exact head counts. Compare timing across countries in the population peak ranking.
Population trend: 1950–2100
Mid-year population for every year. Estimates through 2023; dashed line shows the UN medium projection.
| Year | Population | Median age | Fertility | Life exp. | Births | Deaths | Net migration | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1950 | 1,102,042 | 29.0 | 2.27 | 66.4 | 20,142 | 13,649 | +7,928 | +1.3% |
| 1960 | 1,220,453 | 31.1 | 1.98 | 69.3 | 20,191 | 13,232 | +7,762 | +1.2% |
| 1970 | 1,361,866 | 32.7 | 2.17 | 70.4 | 21,282 | 15,196 | +6,158 | +0.9% |
| 1980 | 1,476,463 | 32.7 | 2.02 | 69.5 | 22,026 | 18,116 | +4,619 | +0.6% |
| 1990 | 1,570,303 | 33.3 | 2.04 | 69.9 | 22,221 | 19,462 | −2,660 | +0.0% |
| 2000 | 1,396,997 | 37.1 | 1.35 | 71.0 | 13,011 | 18,412 | −3,083 | -0.6% |
| 2010 | 1,331,448 | 39.3 | 1.72 | 75.9 | 15,822 | 15,783 | −3,781 | -0.3% |
| 2020 | 1,329,669 | 41.4 | 1.59 | 78.9 | 13,235 | 15,302 | +3,694 | +0.1% |
| 2023 | 1,367,196 | 41.9 | 1.35 | 79.2 | 11,036 | 16,693 | +5,717 | 0.0% |
| 2024* | 1,360,546 | 42.3 | 1.36 | 79.3 | 10,926 | 16,550 | −7,742 | -1.0% |
| 2026* | 1,331,062 | 43.2 | 1.38 | 79.6 | 10,156 | 16,502 | −716 | -0.5% |
| 2030* | 1,302,772 | 44.7 | 1.42 | 80.3 | 9,581 | 16,432 | −211 | -0.5% |
| 2040* | 1,236,787 | 48.3 | 1.47 | 81.8 | 10,351 | 16,625 | +235 | -0.5% |
| 2050* | 1,174,267 | 48.4 | 1.51 | 83.2 | 9,775 | 16,727 | +234 | -0.6% |
| 2060* | 1,100,466 | 49.3 | 1.53 | 84.5 | 7,818 | 16,243 | +318 | -0.7% |
| 2070* | 1,019,985 | 51.2 | 1.54 | 85.7 | 7,733 | 15,967 | +218 | -0.8% |
| 2080* | 944,963 | 51.3 | 1.55 | 86.9 | 7,545 | 14,891 | +338 | -0.7% |
| 2090* | 880,860 | 50.8 | 1.56 | 88.1 | 6,490 | 12,475 | +256 | -0.7% |
| 2100* | 825,503 | 52.1 | 1.57 | 89.2 | 6,095 | 12,040 | +355 | -0.7% |
* 2024 onward is the UN medium projection. Fertility is births per woman; life expectancy is years at birth; births, deaths, and net migration are counts for that calendar year.
Download every year, 1950–2100 (CSV)
2026 population by age and sex
The table provides the counts behind the chart. Age groups are five-year bands, with everyone aged 100 or older combined.
| Age group | Male | Female | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–4 | 28,105 | 26,354 | 54,459 | 4.1% |
| 5–9 | 36,593 | 34,315 | 70,908 | 5.3% |
| 10–14 | 37,380 | 35,417 | 72,797 | 5.5% |
| 15–19 | 40,283 | 38,248 | 78,531 | 5.9% |
| 20–24 | 34,018 | 32,339 | 66,357 | 5.0% |
| 25–29 | 31,877 | 29,943 | 61,820 | 4.6% |
| 30–34 | 38,894 | 35,965 | 74,859 | 5.6% |
| 35–39 | 53,770 | 48,212 | 101,982 | 7.7% |
| 40–44 | 51,282 | 47,477 | 98,759 | 7.4% |
| 45–49 | 47,751 | 45,108 | 92,859 | 7.0% |
| 50–54 | 46,478 | 45,580 | 92,058 | 6.9% |
| 55–59 | 42,022 | 44,312 | 86,334 | 6.5% |
| 60–64 | 38,640 | 44,263 | 82,903 | 6.2% |
| 65–69 | 35,597 | 46,678 | 82,275 | 6.2% |
| 70–74 | 28,805 | 44,185 | 72,990 | 5.5% |
| 75–79 | 20,890 | 38,684 | 59,574 | 4.5% |
| 80–84 | 11,365 | 25,587 | 36,952 | 2.8% |
| 85–89 | 7,454 | 21,879 | 29,333 | 2.2% |
| 90–94 | 2,496 | 9,281 | 11,777 | 0.9% |
| 95–99 | 580 | 2,599 | 3,179 | 0.2% |
| 100+ | 47 | 315 | 362 | 0.0% |
Countries with the most similar age structure
These profiles have the 2026 age distributions closest to Estonia’s, measured by the total difference in the share of the population in each five-year band. Similar shapes can arise from very different histories, so the match is a starting point for comparison, not an explanation.
- Latvia98% overlap · median age 43.8
- Slovenia96% overlap · median age 45.0
- Czechia96% overlap · median age 44.3
- Bulgaria96% overlap · median age 45.0
- Belgium96% overlap · median age 42.1
- Slovakia96% overlap · median age 42.8
To calculate school-age, working-age, or older groups with other boundaries, use the age-group calculator for Estonia.
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APA
World Population Pyramid. (2026, October 19). Estonia Population Pyramid 2026. https://worldpopulationpyramid.com/countries/estonia/
MLA
“Estonia Population Pyramid 2026.” World Population Pyramid, 19 Oct. 2026, worldpopulationpyramid.com/countries/estonia/.
Chicago
World Population Pyramid. “Estonia Population Pyramid 2026.” Last modified October 19, 2026. https://worldpopulationpyramid.com/countries/estonia/.
Underlying data: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2024). World Population Prospects 2024.
Frequently asked questions
What is the population of Estonia in 2026?
Under the UN World Population Prospects 2024 medium scenario, Estonia's population in 2026 is projected at 1,331,062.
What is the median age in Estonia?
The projected median age in Estonia in 2026 is 43.2 years: half the population is younger and half is older.
What is the fertility rate in Estonia?
The projected total fertility rate in 2026 is 1.38 births per woman, below the replacement level of about 2.1 in low-mortality populations.
Is Estonia's population projected to grow?
Between 2026 and 2050, the UN medium scenario indicates the population will decline by about 12%, from 1.3M to 1.2M.
What share of Estonia is aged 65 or older?
In 2026, 22.3% of the projected population is aged 65 or older. By 2050, the medium scenario places the share at 29.8%.
How many babies are born in Estonia each year?
The UN medium scenario projects 10,156 births and 16,502 deaths in 2026, about 28 births a day. Deaths exceed births by 6,346.
What is life expectancy in Estonia for men and women?
Life expectancy at birth in 2026 is projected at 83.4 years for women and 75.6 years for men, a gap of 7.8 years in favour of women.
Does Estonia have more immigrants or emigrants?
Estonia is projected to lose about 716 more people through emigration than it gains in 2026. Between 2000 and 2023 the UN estimates cumulative net migration of +30,208.
What is the sex ratio in Estonia?
The projected 2026 population sex ratio is 91.0 males per 100 females. This all-age ratio is different from the sex ratio at birth and can vary substantially by age.
Sources and notes
- United Nations, DESA, Population Division: World Population Prospects 2024, medium scenario.
- Population values are mid-year figures. Source values published in thousands are converted to people; displayed figures may imply more precision than is appropriate for planning.
- Historical values through 2023 are estimates. Values from 2024 onward are projections.
- Calculations follow the site methodology.