Guernsey population pyramid 2026
64,610 people in 2026 (projected). Guernsey’s pyramids long carried a notch from the few births during the 1940–45 German occupation; today deaths outnumber births and migration sustains numbers.
- 2026 population
- 64.6Krank 207 of 237
- Median age
- 44.5 yearsoldest rank 27
- Fertility rate
- 1.37births per woman · below replacement
- Structure
- Older22.7% age 65+
Guernsey population pyramid
2026 · Share of total by five-year age group and sex
Hover over or tap a bar to see exact values.
Download this population pyramid
Use the publication-ready SVG, create a high-resolution PNG, or download the complete age-by-sex dataset.
The UN series provides historical estimates through 2023. Figures from 2024 onward—including 2026—are medium-scenario projections, not counts or predictions guaranteed to occur.
Guernsey age distribution in 2026
Children under 15 account for 13.6% of the population, while 22.7% are aged 65 or older. The remaining 63.7% are in the conventional working-age range of 15–64. On these shares, the site classifies Guernsey’s age structure as older; the guide to constrictive population pyramids explains what that shape implies.
The total age dependency ratio is 56.9: about 57 people under 15 or 65+ for every 100 people aged 15–64 (21.3 children and 35.6 older people). This is an age-balance indicator, not a literal count of economic dependants per worker.
What shapes Guernsey’s population pyramid
The occupation notch
In June 1940, shortly before German forces occupied the Channel Islands, a large share of Guernsey’s children were evacuated to Britain, and births on the island during the occupation were few. The pyramid records this clearly. In 1950 the 5–9 band, born 1941–45, is narrower than the bands on either side, and in 1975, at ages 30–34, it is about 37% narrower than the band below. By 2026 the same people are in their early eighties and the notch has blurred, as mortality and migration have reshaped such small numbers.
Small numbers, steady arrivals
With about 65,000 residents, Guernsey’s five-year bands each hold only a few thousand people, so modest flows of arrivals and departures make them uneven. Fertility has been below replacement since the 1970s and is now about 1.4, and births and deaths have been roughly in balance for decades; deaths first exceeded births in 1981, and in 2026 about 620 deaths outnumber about 520 births. Growth has come from migration instead: the UN estimates a net gain of about 10,500 people between 1950 and 1999. The widest bands in 2026 are 55–64, people born in the 1960s, with the 55–59 band about 8% larger than its neighbours.
The structure is close to that of Jersey and the Isle of Man. Under the UN medium scenario the population peaks at about 64,800 in 2031 and falls to about 53,000 by 2100, with nearly a third of residents aged 65 or over by 2050.
What to notice across the years
Distinctive cohorts and turning points
No five-year band under age 80 is more than 10% larger or smaller than both of its neighbours, so Guernsey’s 2026 pyramid has a comparatively smooth profile without sharp bulges or notches.
Deaths have exceeded births every year since 2016; they also did so in 1981, but births then outnumbered deaths again. People aged 65 and older came to outnumber children under 15 between 2005 and 2010.
Births, deaths, and migration
A pyramid changes in only three ways: births add to the base, deaths remove people at every age, and migration adds or removes people mainly in young adulthood. In 2026, Guernsey is projected to record 524 births (about 1 births a day) and 620 deaths, a natural decrease of 96. Net migration adds +196 people, ranking #39 in the net migration rate ranking.
Between 2000 and 2023 the UN estimates 13,828 births, 13,055 deaths, and cumulative net migration of +3,256. Over that period migration moved the total more than the balance of births and deaths did. See how migration shapes a pyramid and birth rate versus fertility rate. The medium scenario assumes net migration of +3,263 between 2026 and 2050.
Annual values 1950–2100; dashed lines after 2023 are the UN medium projection. The trend table below lists the values by decade.
Life expectancy and mortality
- Life expectancy, women
- 85.9 years74.7 in 1950
- Life expectancy, men
- 81.5 years67.8 in 1950
- Further years at 65
- 21.2 yearsboth sexes
- Infant mortality
- 5.5per 1,000 births · 26 in 1950
- Under-five mortality
- 6.4per 1,000 births
- Mother’s mean age at birth
- 30.9 yearssex ratio at birth 105.4
Women in Guernsey are projected to live 4.4 years longer than men, which is why the female side of the pyramid widens relative to the other at older ages (see the life expectancy gap ranking). Infant mortality has fallen from 26 to 5.5 deaths per 1,000 live births since 1950, ranking #162 of 237 in the infant mortality ranking (highest first). A mean age at childbearing of 30.9 years sets the spacing between generations, and so how far apart echo cohorts sit in the pyramid.
Median age, fertility rate, and global ranks for Guernsey
The median age of 44.5 years splits the population into two equal halves. A total fertility rate of 1.37 births per woman is below the replacement level of roughly 2.1, and life expectancy at birth is 83.7 years.
These ranks compare all 237 countries and areas in this dataset using the same 2026 UN medium projection. Ranks use the stored source precision, so displayed rounding can make adjacent values look identical; small differences should not be overinterpreted.
| Indicator | 2026 value | Global rank | Ranking direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Population | 64,610 | #207 | Largest first |
| Median age | 44.5 years | #27 | Oldest first |
| Fertility rate | 1.37 | #199 | Highest first |
| Annual growth | +0.1% | #163 | Fastest first |
| Life expectancy | 83.7 years | #19 | Highest first |
| Population aged 65+ | 22.7% | #22 | Highest share first |
Largest age groups in Guernsey
The five largest cohorts identify where the 2026 population is concentrated. They can reflect past birth patterns, survival, and migration; the chart alone does not establish which cause dominates.
| Rank | Age group | Population | Share of total | Male / female |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 55–59 | 4,940 | 7.6% | 2.4K / 2.6K |
| 2 | 60–64 | 4,864 | 7.5% | 2.4K / 2.5K |
| 3 | 35–39 | 4,293 | 6.6% | 2.2K / 2.1K |
| 4 | 50–54 | 4,279 | 6.6% | 2.1K / 2.2K |
| 5 | 65–69 | 4,152 | 6.4% | 2K / 2.2K |
Sex ratio and the balance by age
In the 2026 projection, Guernsey has 31,908 males and 32,701 females. That is 97.6 males per 100 females, ranking #135 when the dataset is ordered from the highest male-to-female ratio to the lowest.
Males account for 49.4% of the population and females for 50.6%. There are 793 more females than males overall. Among people aged 65 and older, the ratio is 85.2 males per 100 females.
The overall balance can conceal large differences by age; how sex ratios change with age explains the usual pattern. The ratio reflects the male/female categories in the UN source and is not a measure of gender identity. Compare all profiles in the sex-ratio ranking.
At birth, 105.4 boys are projected to be born for every 100 girls in 2026, close to the biological norm of about 105 (compare the sex ratio at birth ranking). The ratio at birth sets the balance at the base of the pyramid; how it changes with age then depends on survival and migration.
How Guernsey has changed since 1950
The population has increased from 44,946 in 1950 to 64,610 in 2026, a change of 44%. Over the same span, median age moved from 33.8 to 44.5 years.
The under-15 share changed from 22.5% to 13.6%, while the share aged 65 and older changed from 12.0% to 22.7%. These shifts show why total population growth and age-structure change need to be read separately.
How the population could change by 2050
Under the UN medium scenario, Guernsey’s population is projected to decline by about 3%, reaching 62,800 in 2050. The median age changes from 44.5 to 48.6 years.
The 65+ share is projected to rise by 8.0 percentage points to 30.7%. At the same time, the under-15 share is projected at 12.6%. How UN projections work explains the assumptions behind these figures.
The annual UN series reaches its highest projected population of 64,826 in 2031. That turning point depends on the medium scenario and may move in later revisions. Compare timing across countries in the population peak ranking.
Population trend: 1950–2100
Mid-year population for every year. Estimates through 2023; dashed line shows the UN medium projection.
| Year | Population | Median age | Fertility | Life exp. | Births | Deaths | Net migration | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1950 | 44,946 | 33.8 | 2.33 | 71.2 | 736 | 502 | +1,069 | +2.9% |
| 1960 | 47,164 | 35.2 | 2.24 | 75.2 | 654 | 462 | +11 | +0.4% |
| 1970 | 53,634 | 34.1 | 2.11 | 72.6 | 745 | 644 | +683 | +1.5% |
| 1980 | 53,929 | 33.6 | 1.59 | 75.5 | 630 | 586 | −123 | -0.1% |
| 1990 | 58,901 | 35.5 | 1.61 | 76.6 | 751 | 637 | +609 | +1.2% |
| 2000 | 60,269 | 37.4 | 1.47 | 79.4 | 655 | 557 | +145 | +0.4% |
| 2010 | 61,513 | 40.8 | 1.56 | 82.3 | 603 | 505 | +44 | +0.2% |
| 2020 | 63,106 | 43.7 | 1.33 | 83.3 | 501 | 551 | +322 | +0.4% |
| 2023 | 64,017 | 44.0 | 1.36 | 83.3 | 521 | 595 | +380 | +0.5% |
| 2024* | 64,280 | 44.1 | 1.37 | 83.4 | 525 | 605 | +297 | +0.3% |
| 2026* | 64,610 | 44.5 | 1.37 | 83.7 | 524 | 620 | +196 | +0.1% |
| 2030* | 64,824 | 45.4 | 1.39 | 84.2 | 519 | 652 | +144 | +0.0% |
| 2040* | 64,326 | 47.6 | 1.42 | 85.5 | 518 | 740 | +125 | -0.2% |
| 2050* | 62,800 | 48.6 | 1.45 | 86.6 | 493 | 811 | +108 | -0.3% |
| 2060* | 60,475 | 49.1 | 1.47 | 87.7 | 463 | 825 | +116 | -0.4% |
| 2070* | 58,234 | 49.7 | 1.49 | 88.7 | 461 | 773 | +115 | -0.3% |
| 2080* | 56,362 | 49.5 | 1.50 | 89.7 | 448 | 730 | +97 | -0.3% |
| 2090* | 54,548 | 49.7 | 1.52 | 90.7 | 429 | 697 | +93 | -0.3% |
| 2100* | 52,910 | 50.0 | 1.53 | 91.7 | 421 | 666 | +81 | -0.3% |
* 2024 onward is the UN medium projection. Fertility is births per woman; life expectancy is years at birth; births, deaths, and net migration are counts for that calendar year.
Download every year, 1950–2100 (CSV)
2026 population by age and sex
The table provides the counts behind the chart. Age groups are five-year bands, with everyone aged 100 or older combined.
| Age group | Male | Female | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–4 | 1,363 | 1,307 | 2,670 | 4.1% |
| 5–9 | 1,426 | 1,352 | 2,778 | 4.3% |
| 10–14 | 1,717 | 1,618 | 3,335 | 5.2% |
| 15–19 | 1,794 | 1,637 | 3,431 | 5.3% |
| 20–24 | 1,800 | 1,710 | 3,510 | 5.4% |
| 25–29 | 1,962 | 1,884 | 3,846 | 6.0% |
| 30–34 | 2,022 | 1,925 | 3,947 | 6.1% |
| 35–39 | 2,189 | 2,104 | 4,293 | 6.6% |
| 40–44 | 2,108 | 1,980 | 4,088 | 6.3% |
| 45–49 | 1,973 | 2,000 | 3,973 | 6.1% |
| 50–54 | 2,078 | 2,201 | 4,279 | 6.6% |
| 55–59 | 2,361 | 2,579 | 4,940 | 7.6% |
| 60–64 | 2,373 | 2,491 | 4,864 | 7.5% |
| 65–69 | 2,002 | 2,150 | 4,152 | 6.4% |
| 70–74 | 1,636 | 1,654 | 3,290 | 5.1% |
| 75–79 | 1,428 | 1,677 | 3,105 | 4.8% |
| 80–84 | 905 | 1,105 | 2,010 | 3.1% |
| 85–89 | 518 | 749 | 1,267 | 2.0% |
| 90–94 | 202 | 409 | 611 | 0.9% |
| 95–99 | 47 | 138 | 185 | 0.3% |
| 100+ | 6 | 32 | 38 | 0.1% |
Countries with the most similar age structure
These profiles have the 2026 age distributions closest to Guernsey’s, measured by the total difference in the share of the population in each five-year band. Similar shapes can arise from very different histories, so the match is a starting point for comparison, not an explanation.
- Liechtenstein97% overlap · median age 44.7
- Isle of Man97% overlap · median age 46.3
- Austria97% overlap · median age 43.9
- Jersey96% overlap · median age 43.9
- Belgium96% overlap · median age 42.1
- Germany96% overlap · median age 45.7
To calculate school-age, working-age, or older groups with other boundaries, use the age-group calculator for Guernsey.
Use this chart in your work
Charts and tables may be reused with attribution. Please link to this page and credit the United Nations as the data source.
Embed the population pyramid
Cite this page
APA
World Population Pyramid. (2026, October 19). Guernsey Population Pyramid 2026. https://worldpopulationpyramid.com/countries/guernsey/
MLA
“Guernsey Population Pyramid 2026.” World Population Pyramid, 19 Oct. 2026, worldpopulationpyramid.com/countries/guernsey/.
Chicago
World Population Pyramid. “Guernsey Population Pyramid 2026.” Last modified October 19, 2026. https://worldpopulationpyramid.com/countries/guernsey/.
Underlying data: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2024). World Population Prospects 2024.
Frequently asked questions
What is the population of Guernsey in 2026?
Under the UN World Population Prospects 2024 medium scenario, Guernsey's population in 2026 is projected at 64,610.
What is the median age in Guernsey?
The projected median age in Guernsey in 2026 is 44.5 years: half the population is younger and half is older.
What is the fertility rate in Guernsey?
The projected total fertility rate in 2026 is 1.37 births per woman, below the replacement level of about 2.1 in low-mortality populations.
Is Guernsey's population projected to grow?
Between 2026 and 2050, the UN medium scenario indicates the population will decline by about 3%, from 64.6K to 62.8K.
What share of Guernsey is aged 65 or older?
In 2026, 22.7% of the projected population is aged 65 or older. By 2050, the medium scenario places the share at 30.7%.
How many babies are born in Guernsey each year?
The UN medium scenario projects 524 births and 620 deaths in 2026, about 1 births a day. Deaths exceed births by 96.
What is life expectancy in Guernsey for men and women?
Life expectancy at birth in 2026 is projected at 85.9 years for women and 81.5 years for men, a gap of 4.4 years in favour of women.
Does Guernsey have more immigrants or emigrants?
Guernsey is projected to gain about 196 more people through migration than it loses in 2026. Between 2000 and 2023 the UN estimates cumulative net migration of +3,256.
What is the sex ratio in Guernsey?
The projected 2026 population sex ratio is 97.6 males per 100 females. This all-age ratio is different from the sex ratio at birth and can vary substantially by age.
Sources and notes
- United Nations, DESA, Population Division: World Population Prospects 2024, medium scenario.
- Population values are mid-year figures. Source values published in thousands are converted to people; displayed figures may imply more precision than is appropriate for planning.
- Historical values through 2023 are estimates. Values from 2024 onward are projections.
- Calculations follow the site methodology.