Definition
A negative annual growth rate means projected deaths and net migration effects exceed births and inward migration combined over the reference period.
Fastest-Declining Populations in 2026
2026 medium projection
Compare where total population is projected to contract most quickly in 2026, then open each profile to see the age structure behind the rate.
- Countries and areas
- 65
- Highest-ranked
- Saint Martin (French part)-4.2%
- Rank 10
- United States Virgin Islands-0.9%
- End of table
- Aruba-0.0%
Estimate or projection?
The UN series provides historical estimates through 2023. Figures from 2024 onward—including 2026—are medium-scenario projections, not counts or predictions guaranteed to occur.
Complete fastest-declining populations in 2026 ranking
Select any country to inspect its full age-by-sex structure and projections.
| Rank | Country or area | Region | 2026 growth | 2050 population |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saint Martin (French part) | Latin America and the Caribbean | -4.2% | 18,795 |
| 2 | Marshall Islands | Oceania | -3.3% | 25,195 |
| 3 | Cook Islands | Oceania | -3.3% | 9,337 |
| 4 | American Samoa | Oceania | -1.5% | 37,545 |
| 5 | Northern Mariana Islands | Oceania | -1.3% | 42,764 |
| 6 | Tuvalu | Oceania | -1.2% | 9,780 |
| 7 | Saint Helena | Africa | -1.1% | 3,968 |
| 8 | Saint Pierre and Miquelon | Northern America | -1.1% | 4,258 |
| 9 | Moldova | Europe | -1.0% | 2,351,809 |
| 10 | United States Virgin Islands | Latin America and the Caribbean | -0.9% | 71,226 |
| 11 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | Europe | -0.8% | 2,455,167 |
| 12 | Montserrat | Latin America and the Caribbean | -0.8% | 3,692 |
| 13 | Lithuania | Europe | -0.8% | 2,258,774 |
| 14 | Martinique | Latin America and the Caribbean | -0.8% | 282,070 |
| 15 | Latvia | Europe | -0.8% | 1,513,810 |
| 16 | Albania | Europe | -0.7% | 2,240,166 |
| 16 | Ukraine | Europe | -0.7% | 31,990,132 |
| 18 | Bulgaria | Europe | -0.7% | 5,402,217 |
| 19 | Armenia | Asia | -0.7% | 2,495,207 |
| 19 | Wallis and Futuna Islands | Oceania | -0.7% | 10,148 |
| 21 | Belarus | Europe | -0.7% | 7,453,546 |
| 22 | Saint Vincent and the Grenadines | Latin America and the Caribbean | -0.7% | 88,942 |
| 23 | Croatia | Europe | -0.7% | 3,234,160 |
| 23 | Serbia | Europe | -0.7% | 5,532,870 |
| 25 | Monaco | Europe | -0.6% | 36,757 |
| 25 | Romania | Europe | -0.6% | 16,027,266 |
| 27 | Japan | Asia | -0.6% | 105,123,167 |
| 27 | North Macedonia | Europe | -0.6% | 1,512,688 |
| 29 | Montenegro | Europe | -0.5% | 533,295 |
| 30 | Dominica | Latin America and the Caribbean | -0.5% | 63,192 |
| 30 | Estonia | Europe | -0.5% | 1,174,267 |
| 32 | Puerto Rico | Latin America and the Caribbean | -0.5% | 2,503,994 |
| 33 | Hong Kong | Asia | -0.5% | 6,090,619 |
| 34 | Taiwan | Asia | -0.4% | 19,434,600 |
| 35 | Greece | Europe | -0.4% | 8,812,070 |
| 35 | Tonga | Oceania | -0.4% | 105,195 |
| 37 | Cuba | Latin America and the Caribbean | -0.4% | 9,382,000 |
| 38 | Italy | Europe | -0.4% | 51,891,098 |
| 39 | Poland | Europe | -0.4% | 32,814,096 |
| 40 | Guadeloupe | Latin America and the Caribbean | -0.4% | 326,318 |
| 41 | Hungary | Europe | -0.3% | 8,725,347 |
| 42 | Kosovo | Europe | -0.3% | 1,643,619 |
| 43 | Palau | Oceania | -0.3% | 15,518 |
| 44 | Mauritius | Africa | -0.3% | 1,107,197 |
| 45 | Germany | Europe | -0.2% | 78,294,613 |
| 45 | Greenland | Northern America | -0.2% | 49,898 |
| 45 | Russia | Europe | -0.2% | 136,132,775 |
| 48 | China | Asia | -0.2% | 1,260,289,093 |
| 49 | Czechia | Europe | -0.2% | 9,825,544 |
| 50 | Jamaica | Latin America and the Caribbean | -0.2% | 2,454,940 |
| 50 | Portugal | Europe | -0.2% | 9,770,270 |
| 50 | Slovakia | Europe | -0.2% | 4,936,488 |
| 53 | Bermuda | Northern America | -0.1% | 56,937 |
| 54 | South Korea | Asia | -0.1% | 45,143,134 |
| 55 | Slovenia | Europe | -0.1% | 1,981,553 |
| 56 | Falkland Islands (Malvinas) | Latin America and the Caribbean | -0.1% | 3,176 |
| 57 | Spain | Europe | -0.1% | 44,928,558 |
| 58 | Thailand | Asia | -0.1% | 66,382,735 |
| 59 | Finland | Europe | -0.1% | 5,351,645 |
| 59 | Isle of Man | Europe | -0.1% | 77,970 |
| 61 | Austria | Europe | -0.1% | 8,724,332 |
| 61 | Uruguay | Latin America and the Caribbean | -0.1% | 3,254,354 |
| 63 | Georgia | Asia | -0.1% | 3,664,014 |
| 64 | Curaçao | Latin America and the Caribbean | -0.0% | 173,498 |
| 65 | Aruba | Latin America and the Caribbean | -0.0% | 100,002 |
What this ranking measures—and what it does not
Why it matters
Decline can affect the size and location of the workforce, housing demand, local services, and fiscal systems. An older pyramid often accompanies decline, but migration can change the direction quickly.
Read with care
A negative rate is not automatically a crisis or a complete measure of well-being. Small-country migration changes can dominate a single year, and national totals can hide growing cities.
What stands out in this comparison
Saint Martin (French part) leads with -4.2%, while United States Virgin Islands is at rank 10 with -0.9%. At the other end of the complete table, Aruba has -0.0%.
Those positions describe this particular indicator, definition, and reference period. They do not imply that every country near the top has the same population pyramid or demographic path. Open the profiles to compare the underlying cohorts.
First five
- Saint Martin (French part) — rank 1, -4.2%; 2050 population 18,795.
- Marshall Islands — rank 2, -3.3%; 2050 population 25,195.
- Cook Islands — rank 3, -3.3%; 2050 population 9,337.
- American Samoa — rank 4, -1.5%; 2050 population 37,545.
- Northern Mariana Islands — rank 5, -1.3%; 2050 population 42,764.
Other end of the table
- Aruba — rank 65, -0.0%; 2050 population 100,002.
- Curaçao — rank 64, -0.0%; 2050 population 173,498.
- Georgia — rank 63, -0.1%; 2050 population 3,664,014.
- Uruguay — rank 61, -0.1%; 2050 population 3,254,354.
- Austria — rank 61, -0.1%; 2050 population 8,724,332.
Questions about this ranking
Which country or area ranks first for 2026 growth?
Saint Martin (French part) ranks first in this comparison with -4.2%. The table uses 2026 medium projection from UN World Population Prospects 2024.
Which values are estimates and which are projections?
In World Population Prospects 2024, historical estimates run through 2023 and values from 2024 onward are projections. The peak-year table labels historical and projected results separately.
Why might another source show a different rank?
Sources can use different reference dates, revisions, country definitions, estimation methods, or projection scenarios. Close ranks can also change after revisions.