Tokelau population pyramid 2026
2,691 people in 2026 (projected). Tokelau has under 3,000 residents, so its pyramid is jagged; migration to New Zealand, where most Tokelauans live, has strongly shaped it.
- 2026 population
- 2.7Krank 235 of 237
- Median age
- 27.6 yearsoldest rank 153
- Fertility rate
- 2.54births per woman · above replacement
- Structure
- Transitional8.7% age 65+
Tokelau population pyramid
2026 · Share of total by five-year age group and sex
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The UN series provides historical estimates through 2023. Figures from 2024 onward—including 2026—are medium-scenario projections, not counts or predictions guaranteed to occur.
Tokelau age distribution in 2026
Children under 15 account for 25.5% of the population, while 8.7% are aged 65 or older. The remaining 65.8% are in the conventional working-age range of 15–64. On these shares, the site classifies Tokelau’s age structure as transitional; the guide to population pyramid types explains what that shape implies.
The total age dependency ratio is 51.9: about 52 people under 15 or 65+ for every 100 people aged 15–64 (38.7 children and 13.2 older people). This is an age-balance indicator, not a literal count of economic dependants per worker.
What shapes Tokelau’s population pyramid
A population that lives mostly elsewhere
Tokelau, three small atolls administered by New Zealand, had about 1,600 people in 1950 and about 2,700 in 2026. Tokelauans are New Zealand citizens, and far more of them live in New Zealand than on the atolls. The UN estimates net emigration of about 1,800 people between 1950 and 1999, more than the entire 1950 population, including through a government-assisted resettlement scheme in the 1960s and 1970s.
The 1975 pyramid shows the effect: young adults, especially men, are missing. At ages 25–29 there are 59 women and only 13 men.
Reading a very small pyramid
With so few people, each five-year band holds at most a few hundred residents, and one family moving can change a band visibly. The 2026 pyramid has several apparent bulges and notches and extreme sex ratios at some older ages, but these mostly reflect small numbers rather than distinct historical events; the guide to counts and percentages explains why such pyramids look jagged.
The broader trends are clearer. Fertility has fallen from about 5.7 children per woman in 1960 to about 2.6 in 2023, and life expectancy has risen to about 77. Births still outnumber deaths by more than three to one. Under the UN medium scenario the population, helped by a small net inflow, grows to about 3,800 by 2050 and peaks at about 4,400 in 2081, though projections for so small a place are especially uncertain. Niue, also closely tied to New Zealand, offers a comparison.
What to notice across the years
Distinctive cohorts and turning points
Comparing each five-year band with its neighbours picks out the cohorts that break a smooth slope. These irregularities usually record past surges or deficits in births, or migration concentrated at particular ages; the pattern alone does not identify which. The guide to baby booms and echo cohorts explains how to date and interpret them.
| Age band in 2026 | Born about | Feature | Versus neighbouring bands |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50–54 | 1972–1976 | Notch (smaller cohort) | −29% |
| 55–59 | 1967–1971 | Bulge (larger cohort) | +21% |
| 15–19 | 2007–2011 | Bulge (larger cohort) | +15% |
| 10–14 | 2012–2016 | Notch (smaller cohort) | −12% |
Births outnumber deaths in 2026; the medium scenario projects deaths to exceed births from 2087. People aged 65 and older are projected to outnumber children under 15 by 2070.
Births, deaths, and migration
A pyramid changes in only three ways: births add to the base, deaths remove people at every age, and migration adds or removes people mainly in young adulthood. In 2026, Tokelau is projected to record 55 births (about 55 births a year) and 15 deaths, a natural increase of 40. Net migration adds +43 people, ranking #2 in the net migration rate ranking.
Between 2000 and 2023 the UN estimates 840 births, 293 deaths, and cumulative net migration of +71. Over that period the balance of births and deaths moved the total more than migration did. See how migration shapes a pyramid and birth rate versus fertility rate. The medium scenario assumes net migration of +282 between 2026 and 2050.
Annual values 1950–2100; dashed lines after 2023 are the UN medium projection. The trend table below lists the values by decade.
Life expectancy and mortality
- Life expectancy, women
- 79.3 years56.8 in 1950
- Life expectancy, men
- 75.3 years52.5 in 1950
- Further years at 65
- 17.8 yearsboth sexes
- Infant mortality
- 3.8per 1,000 births · 51 in 1950
- Under-five mortality
- 5.0per 1,000 births
- Mother’s mean age at birth
- 29.4 yearssex ratio at birth 103.0
Women in Tokelau are projected to live 4.0 years longer than men, which is why the female side of the pyramid widens relative to the other at older ages (see the life expectancy gap ranking). Infant mortality has fallen from 51 to 3.8 deaths per 1,000 live births since 1950, ranking #192 of 237 in the infant mortality ranking (highest first). A mean age at childbearing of 29.4 years sets the spacing between generations, and so how far apart echo cohorts sit in the pyramid.
Median age, fertility rate, and global ranks for Tokelau
The median age of 27.6 years splits the population into two equal halves. A total fertility rate of 2.54 births per woman is above the replacement level of roughly 2.1, and life expectancy at birth is 77.4 years.
These ranks compare all 237 countries and areas in this dataset using the same 2026 UN medium projection. Ranks use the stored source precision, so displayed rounding can make adjacent values look identical; small differences should not be overinterpreted.
| Indicator | 2026 value | Global rank | Ranking direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Population | 2,691 | #235 | Largest first |
| Median age | 27.6 years | #153 | Oldest first |
| Fertility rate | 2.54 | #74 | Highest first |
| Annual growth | +2.6% | #18 | Fastest first |
| Life expectancy | 77.4 years | #96 | Highest first |
| Population aged 65+ | 8.7% | #131 | Highest share first |
Largest age groups in Tokelau
The five largest cohorts identify where the 2026 population is concentrated. They can reflect past birth patterns, survival, and migration; the chart alone does not establish which cause dominates.
| Rank | Age group | Population | Share of total | Male / female |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0–4 | 261 | 9.7% | 132 / 129 |
| 2 | 15–19 | 252 | 9.3% | 142 / 110 |
| 3 | 25–29 | 248 | 9.2% | 124 / 124 |
| 4 | 20–24 | 230 | 8.5% | 113 / 117 |
| 5 | 30–34 | 227 | 8.4% | 116 / 111 |
Sex ratio and the balance by age
In the 2026 projection, Tokelau has 1,318 males and 1,372 females. That is 96.1 males per 100 females, ranking #167 when the dataset is ordered from the highest male-to-female ratio to the lowest.
Males account for 49.0% of the population and females for 51.0%. There are 54 more females than males overall. Among people aged 65 and older, the ratio is 82.2 males per 100 females.
The overall balance can conceal large differences by age; how sex ratios change with age explains the usual pattern. The ratio reflects the male/female categories in the UN source and is not a measure of gender identity. Compare all profiles in the sex-ratio ranking.
At birth, 103.0 boys are projected to be born for every 100 girls in 2026, slightly below the typical value of about 105 (compare the sex ratio at birth ranking). The ratio at birth sets the balance at the base of the pyramid; how it changes with age then depends on survival and migration.
How Tokelau has changed since 1950
The population has increased from 1,592 in 1950 to 2,691 in 2026, a change of 69%. Over the same span, median age moved from 18.6 to 27.6 years.
The under-15 share changed from 41.7% to 25.5%, while the share aged 65 and older changed from 4.6% to 8.7%. These shifts show why total population growth and age-structure change need to be read separately.
How the population could change by 2050
Under the UN medium scenario, Tokelau’s population is projected to grow by about 42%, reaching 3,821 in 2050. The median age changes from 27.6 to 34.8 years.
The 65+ share is projected to rise by 3.6 percentage points to 12.3%. At the same time, the under-15 share is projected at 21.7%. How UN projections work explains the assumptions behind these figures.
The annual UN series reaches its highest projected population of 4,422 in 2081. That turning point depends on the medium scenario and may move in later revisions. Compare timing across countries in the population peak ranking.
Population trend: 1950–2100
Mid-year population for every year. Estimates through 2023; dashed line shows the UN medium projection.
| Year | Population | Median age | Fertility | Life exp. | Births | Deaths | Net migration | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1950 | 1,592 | 18.6 | 5.12 | 54.7 | 57 | 23 | −96 | -2.8% |
| 1960 | 1,784 | 16.4 | 5.73 | 58.6 | 75 | 20 | +3 | +3.4% |
| 1970 | 1,720 | 14.5 | 5.04 | 62.3 | 57 | 17 | −94 | -3.4% |
| 1980 | 1,664 | 17.1 | 4.08 | 65.2 | 47 | 15 | −30 | -0.1% |
| 1990 | 1,766 | 19.6 | 4.56 | 69.4 | 57 | 13 | −41 | +0.3% |
| 2000 | 1,844 | 20.9 | 3.82 | 72.2 | 47 | 12 | −11 | +1.3% |
| 2010 | 1,584 | 25.1 | 3.25 | 74.5 | 28 | 12 | −5 | +0.4% |
| 2020 | 2,128 | 26.1 | 2.71 | 76.6 | 41 | 13 | +53 | +4.1% |
| 2023 | 2,398 | 26.7 | 2.61 | 77.1 | 47 | 14 | +73 | +4.6% |
| 2024* | 2,506 | 26.9 | 2.60 | 77.2 | 51 | 14 | +72 | +4.3% |
| 2026* | 2,691 | 27.6 | 2.54 | 77.4 | 55 | 15 | +43 | +2.6% |
| 2030* | 2,985 | 28.8 | 2.44 | 77.9 | 60 | 17 | +22 | +2.0% |
| 2040* | 3,512 | 32.0 | 2.26 | 79.2 | 56 | 21 | +4 | +1.0% |
| 2050* | 3,821 | 34.8 | 2.14 | 80.5 | 54 | 27 | −5 | +0.6% |
| 2060* | 4,077 | 36.3 | 2.04 | 81.8 | 56 | 30 | −5 | +0.5% |
| 2070* | 4,303 | 39.1 | 1.96 | 83.1 | 52 | 35 | +2 | +0.5% |
| 2080* | 4,418 | 41.9 | 1.90 | 84.3 | 48 | 43 | −4 | +0.2% |
| 2090* | 4,418 | 43.6 | 1.85 | 85.4 | 47 | 49 | +1 | -0.1% |
| 2100* | 4,370 | 44.6 | 1.82 | 86.5 | 44 | 48 | −2 | -0.1% |
* 2024 onward is the UN medium projection. Fertility is births per woman; life expectancy is years at birth; births, deaths, and net migration are counts for that calendar year.
Download every year, 1950–2100 (CSV)
2026 population by age and sex
The table provides the counts behind the chart. Age groups are five-year bands, with everyone aged 100 or older combined.
| Age group | Male | Female | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–4 | 132 | 129 | 261 | 9.7% |
| 5–9 | 106 | 113 | 219 | 8.1% |
| 10–14 | 98 | 110 | 208 | 7.7% |
| 15–19 | 142 | 110 | 252 | 9.3% |
| 20–24 | 113 | 117 | 230 | 8.5% |
| 25–29 | 124 | 124 | 248 | 9.2% |
| 30–34 | 116 | 111 | 227 | 8.4% |
| 35–39 | 82 | 92 | 174 | 6.4% |
| 40–44 | 78 | 79 | 157 | 5.8% |
| 45–49 | 65 | 74 | 139 | 5.1% |
| 50–54 | 55 | 41 | 96 | 3.6% |
| 55–59 | 66 | 66 | 132 | 4.9% |
| 60–64 | 40 | 82 | 122 | 4.5% |
| 65–69 | 53 | 54 | 107 | 4.0% |
| 70–74 | 31 | 17 | 48 | 1.8% |
| 75–79 | 6 | 30 | 36 | 1.3% |
| 80–84 | 11 | 14 | 25 | 0.9% |
| 85–89 | 5 | 13 | 18 | 0.7% |
| 90–94 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 95–99 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 100+ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
Countries with the most similar age structure
These profiles have the 2026 age distributions closest to Tokelau’s, measured by the total difference in the share of the population in each five-year band. Similar shapes can arise from very different histories, so the match is a starting point for comparison, not an explanation.
- Guyana95% overlap · median age 26.5
- Suriname94% overlap · median age 28.9
- El Salvador94% overlap · median age 28.4
- Bangladesh94% overlap · median age 26.3
- Nepal94% overlap · median age 25.7
- Dominican Republic94% overlap · median age 28.7
To calculate school-age, working-age, or older groups with other boundaries, use the age-group calculator for Tokelau.
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APA
World Population Pyramid. (2026, October 19). Tokelau Population Pyramid 2026. https://worldpopulationpyramid.com/countries/tokelau/
MLA
“Tokelau Population Pyramid 2026.” World Population Pyramid, 19 Oct. 2026, worldpopulationpyramid.com/countries/tokelau/.
Chicago
World Population Pyramid. “Tokelau Population Pyramid 2026.” Last modified October 19, 2026. https://worldpopulationpyramid.com/countries/tokelau/.
Underlying data: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2024). World Population Prospects 2024.
Frequently asked questions
What is the population of Tokelau in 2026?
Under the UN World Population Prospects 2024 medium scenario, Tokelau's population in 2026 is projected at 2,691.
What is the median age in Tokelau?
The projected median age in Tokelau in 2026 is 27.6 years: half the population is younger and half is older.
What is the fertility rate in Tokelau?
The projected total fertility rate in 2026 is 2.54 births per woman, above the replacement level of about 2.1 in low-mortality populations.
Is Tokelau's population projected to grow?
Between 2026 and 2050, the UN medium scenario indicates the population will grow by about 42%, from 2.7K to 3.8K.
What share of Tokelau is aged 65 or older?
In 2026, 8.7% of the projected population is aged 65 or older. By 2050, the medium scenario places the share at 12.3%.
How many babies are born in Tokelau each year?
The UN medium scenario projects 55 births and 15 deaths in 2026, about 55 births a year. Births exceed deaths by 40.
What is life expectancy in Tokelau for men and women?
Life expectancy at birth in 2026 is projected at 79.3 years for women and 75.3 years for men, a gap of 4.0 years in favour of women.
Does Tokelau have more immigrants or emigrants?
Tokelau is projected to gain about 43 more people through migration than it loses in 2026. Between 2000 and 2023 the UN estimates cumulative net migration of +71.
What is the sex ratio in Tokelau?
The projected 2026 population sex ratio is 96.1 males per 100 females. This all-age ratio is different from the sex ratio at birth and can vary substantially by age.
Sources and notes
- United Nations, DESA, Population Division: World Population Prospects 2024, medium scenario.
- Population values are mid-year figures. Source values published in thousands are converted to people; displayed figures may imply more precision than is appropriate for planning.
- Historical values through 2023 are estimates. Values from 2024 onward are projections.
- Calculations follow the site methodology.